Top Ten Greatest KL Draft Picks of 2010

It's late enough in the season that we can fairly reflect on our draft-day decisions. Here is my subjective ranking of the top ten draft-day steals. I took into account the fact that goalies were overvalued this year (my bad), so picks had to be compared within their positions (i.e., forwards to other forwards, etc.). I sometimes considered injuries and sometimes considered future potential, but not really. It's more art than science. 

Without further ado... 

10. Martin St. Louis, Victoria Krugars: 1st round, 15th overall

Second in scoring with 91 points - who thought he would outscore Stamkos?

9. Dustin Byfuglien, Teeyotes: 11th round, 156th overall (35th defenceman taken)

Fourth among defencemen in scoring, 52 points.

8. Kris Letang, Moilers: 12th round,169th overall (38th defenceman taken)

Sixth among d-men in scoring, 48 points - without Crosby and Malkin for half the year. More potential than Byfuglien. 

7. Alex Pietrangelo, Preydators: 17th round, 242nd overall (65th defenceman taken)

19th among defencemen in scoring, 41 points and just 21 years old.

6. Claude Giroux, Victoria Krugars: 6th round, 76th overall

Drafted after teammates Carter, Briere and Richards but leads the team with 71 points (12th overall). 

5. James Wisniewski, Fylanders: 15th round, 214th overall (53rd defenceman taken)

8th in defencemen scoring with 47 points.

4. Keith Yandle, Manitoba Roos: 8th round, 107th overall (17th defenceman taken)

Third among defencemen in scoring with 58 points. People used to make fun of Keith Yandle.

3. Lubomir Visnovsky, Victoria Krugars: 8th round, 106th overall (16th defenceman taken)

First among defencemen with 63 points - career best 67 from 05-06 is beatable.

2. Carey Price, Schizzarks: 16th round, 233rd overall (25th goaltender taken)

Yes, 25th goaltender taken. Second to only Henrik Lundqvist in KL points, thanks to eight shutouts.

1. Teemu Selanne, Winter Claassics: 17th round, 253rd overall.

10th in scoring with 75 points, 8th in points per game. Late-round gambles on aging superstars can pay off. If we could do the draft over again, he would go second round. Great pick, DC.

Honourable mention: Rafalski (Schizzarks, 8th round, 4th in d pts per game), Ryan Whitney (Fylanders, 8th round, 3rd in d pts per game), Burns (Claassics, 15th round, 43 pts), D. Sedin (Wittmen, 7th overall, leading scorer), Ribeiro (Dicklas, 7th round, 66 pts), Lundqvist (Dicklas, 8th goalie taken, first in KL points), Tanguay (P-Rangers, 13th round, 59 pts), Couture (P-Rangers, 15th round, 53 pts as rookie), T. Ruutu (Moilers, 18th round, 50 points), Vrbata (Roos, 299th/300, 46 points - but Micah picked for Roos because he had to leave early). 

Any great picks I missed?

Other observations:

1. A lot of defencemen made the list, and I think that reflects my observation that there was more unpredicatability at defence this year than at forward. Forwards, with few exceptions, either did roughly what we expected, or disappointed. The top ten scoring forwards were all drafted in the first three rounds, with the exception of Teemu Selanne. The top ten scoring defencemen were drafted in the 8th, 5th, 8th, 11th, 5th, 4th, 12th, 15th, 6th, and 9th rounds, respectively. 

2. There were two distinct "waves" of goalie pickups. 14 goalies were taken in the first five rounds. Just one was taken in the next five rounds. Nine were taken in rounds 11 to 15, and just three were taken in the last five rounds. This aligns with what we observed during the draft: the majority of GMs took a solid goalie early, with a few choosing to wait... when some GMs started taking their second goalie around round 12, the rest panicked and added their second (or first and second) goalies. Price was the Schizzarks' second goalie pick, after Backstrom in the 13th round.

3. Worst pick candidate:

Nikita Filatov, P-Rangers, 9th round. 

KL Week in Review: Week 24

The J-Krugars are absolutely running away with it with just two weeks and a day left (regular season ends with four games on April 10).

Krugars' goaltender Ryan Miller earned 16 points last week (three wins, two shutouts), more than the Wittmen's entire team. The Wittmen's poor performance allowed the Schizzarks to sneak into second. The Teeyotes hold down the final winning spot.

The Fylanders came out of nowhere to sneak into fifth place on a whopping 50 point week, including six from Zdeno Chara. The Fylanders have quietly had the best March, after the Krugars. Fourteen points out of fourth, they could certainly challenge for a winning spot.

KL Week in Review: Week 23

A quick update as four GMs meet in New York to discuss changes to the KL. On the agenda are topics such as rule revisions (especially goalie shutout points) and concussions (especially whether Lia was suffering from one during the inaugural draft).

Incredible! A tie for first place! The Krugars have been unstoppable, earning more points than any other team in March. They are injury-free and Kari Lehtonen has 70 points (20 in March alone), meaning he could actually surpass Ryan Miller (75). Shane Doan paced the Krugars with seven points this week.

Here are the odds of winning the KL inaugural championship, courtesy of vegasinsider.com:

1. Victoria Krugars: 5/1 - "Hands-off" management style paying off.
2. Calgary Wittmen: 7/1 - Will Kesler and Sedin see less ice time now that the Canucks have clinched?
3. Schizzarks: 10/1 - Price is everything. Would trading Parise have put them over the top?
4. Powder Rangers: 16/1 - In-season rebuilding leads to surprising late push.
5. Teeyotes: 18/1 - Finishing outside of top-four would be disastrous, given draft picks traded away.
6. Manitoba Roos: 500/1 - Actually having a better month than five teams.

KL Week in Review: Week 22

The Wittmen are a deep and healthy team. Yesterday I looked at the projected totals and the Schizzarks were favoured to win by two points. After last night's incredible 15 points without so much as a goalie win, the Wittmen are the favourites. Daniel Sedin is on pace for an NHL-best 104 points.

Although the Schizzarks and Krugars have better points-per-game (.78 and .77 respectively), the Wittmen have been incredibly lucky with injuries, with their scoring roster having played more games than any other team, and in some cases, almost a hundred more games.

Elsewhere in the league, the Powder Rangers won their battle with the Mackhawks for fifth place and have set their sights on fourth. The Teeyotes had a terrible week. Tim Thomas has not lived up to expectations post-trade (he has two more points than still-concussed Jonas Hiller would have had since the trade), and the defencemen combined for three points this week.

Finally, the Micaleks have successfully nose-dived to 12, where they hope to stay in order to get the fourth overall pick. As their GM once remarked, "if you're not top four, you want to be in Roos' spot."

KL Week in Review: Week 21 (I think)

Just checked the standings this morning and was pleased to see the race is back on. The Teeyotes, Schizzarks and Krugars are closing the gap on the Wittmen. All had solid 30+ point weeks. The Powder Rangers had the best week, with 39. You can't count them out yet. I spoke with their GM and he said he would be very happy with a top four finish in a year he was previously calling a rebuilding year. Of course, fifth place is the worst spot to finish: no money, and the worst draft position out of the non-money teams.

The Schizzarks didn't get the offer they were hoping for for injured Zach Parise, and decided to keep him for next year. (Rumor has it the Claassics were offering Marleau for Parise and a pick.) Probably a smart move, although if it ends up being the difference between first and second place, that's $150.

Wittmen have 97 points from their top goalie slot. Schizzarks also have 97. Teeyotes have 79. Krugars have 71. Mackhaws 86. Rangers 84. Goalies are the top point producers on most, but not all teams.

Transactions: Trade Deadline!

I'm just going to keep updating this post with any trades made from now until the 28th.

02/25/11 Free agent pickup:  Fylanders drop Mike Knuble and add Mark Recchi.

02/26/11 Trade: 

Teeyotes to Milan Micahleks:
G Jonas Hiller
D Mark Streit
F Andrew Cogliano

Micahleks to Teeyotes:
G Tim Thomas
D Andrew MacDonald
F Jakub Voracek
Conditional 4th round pick in 2011 if the Michaleks put two of the acquired players on their Protected Roster for 2011.

02/28/11 Trade:

Powder Rangers to G-Phil's Flyers:
D Jaroslav Spacek
2011 3rd round pick previously acquired from the Milan Micahleks

G-Phil's Flyers to Powder Rangers:
D Ryan Suter

That's it for this year! A relatively quiet deadline day after a bevy of trades in January. Nothing to do now but sit back and watch the Wittmen succumb to injuries and fall catastrophically out of the top 4.

Sorry, one more pickup that made it to my email at 11:58am. (I was at home on Monday.)

Schizzarks drop D Kevin Bieksa for D Joe Corvo.

KL Week in Review: Week 19

We missed week 18 because the standings were all screwed up after a trade. Anyway, as you can see, the Wittmen are holding their lead. The Schizzarks, Teeyotes and Krugars are still in the hunt. However, if you look at the monthly point totals, it seems only the Schizzarks have the steam to keep up with the Wittmen. Antii Niemi has given the Wittmen an incredible 29 points so far this month. Olli Jokinen has also been red hot for the equally hot flames. Both are expecting season-ending injuries on March 1.

Trade Deadline Preview

Happy Valentine’s Day. With the trade deadline just two weeks away, here's a look at each team’s strategic position and the players whose names are likely to come up in trade discussions. I.e., here is some baseless conjecture I made up during a slow day at work. I apologize in advance if I offend you or undermine your bargaining positions.

Sellers:

Winter Claassics: Have already shifted to a younger, faster roster. May be looking to unload Patrick Marleu - 41 points; 32 years old. RJ Umberger, Matt Cullen and Ryan Smyth are also legitimate secondary scorers and I think Claassen would part with them for the right price.

Manitoba Roos:  This may be the time to let go of red-hot Mikael Samuelsson (12 points this month, more than any other skater), if the Roos can get a better injured player or a prospect and a pick in return. Teams may also have their eyes on Kimmo Timonen and Radim Vrbata.

Preydators : The Preydators have a great defensive core, so they may be looking to move Leopold (32 points). You can't keep four defencemen. Well, technically you can, but I wouldn’t. Actually with those forwards I might.

Dicklas Lidstroms: Mike “I have 47 points?” Ribeiro recently asked to be traded to a contender.

K-blat: Goaltending prevented this otherwise competitive team from really competing. Fungible assets include Morrow, Kaberle.

Moilers:. The Moilers may attempt to unload Ruutu (43 points), or Andy McDonald (21 points in 30 games). But don't hold your breath. This GM is "attached to her little guys" and reluctant to consider trades, even very reasonable ones that would have kept the Micahleks alive.

Milan Michaleks: I spoke with the Michaleks' GM and he says he'd entertain reasonable and unreasonable offers for pretty much everyone on his roster. He used the phrase “yard sale” repeatedly. Doughty and Edler are the only untouchables.

G-Phil's Flyers: Just sold Lidstrom (and got Malkin - not bad, I guess). Still may be looking to move Vokoun, even Datsyuk for the right price – but that price could be high, given G-Phil has no pressing needs to address and is already reporting record season ticket sales for next year (top line: Ovechkin, Malkin, Datsyuk).

Could go either way:

Powder Rangers: GM Regehr’s rebuild plan and some shrewd trades are already paying off (see Okposo, Kiprusoff and Evander Kane). Rumour has it GM Regehr doesn't get along with Alex Tanguay (42 points but “strained neck”) and would probably part with him for some help next year on defence.

Mackhawks: Having just lost the free agent sweepstakes for Grabner, this team needs a bold move to get back in the race. If they decide to wait, they’ll be looking for blue line help for next year and rumuor has it Phil Kessel has asked for a trade.

Buyers (and holders):

Wittmen: Strong goaltending from Niemi has made Jimmy Howard superfluous. That trade, which also involved Kesler for Spezza, now looks like the turning point in the season. Barring injuries before the 28^th, the Wittmen have no needs to address. I’ve spoken with their GM – he is very confident in his team.

Teeyotes: Almost traded away Hiller but should be glad they didn’t. Just acquired Filppula and Lidstrom to fill the void of Malkin, but Filppula hasn’t been cleared to skate yet (knee), so the Teeyotes might be looking for another scoring forward. Might also want a depth forward for insurance – look at the bottom of his roster. Has depth on defence for a team looking to add a vet for next year - Zidlicky or Streit.

Krugars: With no injuries at present, and not having made any moves this year,  this team has its sights set on J-Kruising to a peer-shaming victory.* There are some attractive assets in the non-scoring roster too – e.g., Kulikov and Gagne.

Schizzarks: The Schizzarks continue to ride Carey Price, but are now getting contributions from the whole roster. Again, no key injuries in the SR, but some tempting injured assets off the SR in proven Devil Parise and unproven Devil Taormina.

Fylanders: No key injuries to scoring roster, good depth coming from bottom end with Hossa and Lecavalier about to break into the SR. May want to upgrade in goal (will Fleury win a lot with Malkin and Crosby out?), or at the high slots currently occupied by Knuble and Brown.

*full credit to Greg for the J-Kruising joke.

Transactions

02/13/2011  Free Agent Pickup

Wittmen drop F Brandon Yip;  Add F Michael Grabner

Analysis: Grabner has nine goals in five games, and 24 on the season. I knew the Islanders would start scoring eventually, I was just totally wrong about who would do the scoring.

Transactions

TRADE - 02/13/2011

Teeyotes to G-Phil's Flyers:
F  Malkin, D Kronwall
2012 3rd round pick if Malkin scores <60 points in 2011-12.

G-Phil's Flyers to Teeyotes:
F Filppula, D Lidstrom
2011 3rd round pick if Lidstrom retires before 2011 draft.

Analysis:  With Malkin gone for the season and the Teeyotes in second place, they had to move him or else pack it in for the season. Vilppula will fill some of the gap, but this is really a Lidstrom-for-Malkin trade. Problem is Lidstrom has slowed down - just two points in his last ten games.

I have to give this one to Greg, but if Teehan comes top four he won't regret the move. I think Lidstrom's done after this year (though some would disagree), and if so, that third round pick will come in handy.

Scary thought: Greg has Ovechkin and Malkin on his roster for next year. That's two more Russians than you'd like, but if they play 82 games each and produce even at "average" levels, G-Phil's Flyers will be hard to beat. Tense atmosphere in the locker room though.

KL Week in Review: Week 17

First let me apologize for totally dropping the ball last week and neglecting to capture the standings. I guess the excitement of all-star weekend threw me off.

This week, well this is just embarrassing for the Michaleks, aka ultimate choke artists. Eight points in a week - that is lowest week total of all any team, all year! It's less than half of the second worst total this week - the Dicklas Lidstroms' 17. Also note the Saturday night goose egg, despite 13 active players.

Congrats to the Wittmen who took over the lead on a very strong week. They were paced by Johan Franzen's five goal game and an Antii Niemi shutout.

I've been working a lot of weekends lately but I hope to, in the next week or so, do a trade deadline post, tsn-style - who's buying, who's selling, who are the top players available, etc. Unless someone beats me too it. And after the trade deadline, I plan to do an analysis of each team's chances of winning, which of course will be completely wrong.

What are we competing for?

This year we had three full lawyers, six baby lawyers, and six students, paying $50, $35, and $20, respectively. The total pot was $480. When we are all lawyers or law dropouts, it will be $750, assuming we keep fees the same.

According to Schedule II of the Rules,

a) Prize money is distributed as follows:

i) 50% to first place;

ii) 20% to second place;

iii) 15% to third place;

iv) 15% to charity, with the tax receipt going to fourth place.

That means:

$240 to first;
$96 to second;
$72 to third;
$72 to charity.

Maybe that can provide a little more motivation as we head into the final stretch. You may also be happy to know I've lost my top defenceman in Edler for the season, and I'm still missing Getzlaf for another two weeks, so the Micahleks should not be on top for long. I'd be happy with top four.

PS: Congrats to us on our 50th post!