Team-by-Team Season Preview Pt. 3 - Messier Division

Powder Rangers

Keeper points above replacement: 176 (170 pre-trade)

Draft strength:  88 (94 pre-trade) 

Overall:  264 (264 pre-trade) (8th)

 

I had a rough draft of this analysis in the hopper before the Powder Rangers completed a trade with the Mackhawks. I started by noting that the P-Rangers had the third-worst keepers but made up for it by having the strongest draft position, including an extra first and third round pick (which they still have) and fourth round pick (which they traded). I went on to acknowledge that I've suggested a few teams blow it up and commit to the rebuild but knowing GMER's anti-rebuild (or at least anti-tear-down) philosophy, I had written that he should instead look to strengthen the forwards via pre-season trade. I wrote that the Nickrooshkins were the most likely trading partner because they have at least three forwards likely to be discarded who are young and significantly better than the P-Rangers' bottom two forwards of Adam Henrique and Patric Hornqvist.

GMER did make a trade, just not with the GM I anticipated. He acquired Artem Anisimov and Kevin Hayes from the Mackhawks. As you can see from the numbers, (and certainly GMER's numbers may differ from mine), he gained just six points above replacement from the forwards. He lost the equivalent in points above replacement in the draft. I think the old adage that the grass is always greener on the other side applies here. Henrique, Hornqvist, Anisimov and Hayes are essentially interchangeable 40-50-point plugs, any one of which you could argue stands above the others for particular reasons. I'd probably keep Henrique over Anisimov but what do I know. At least he didn't give up a lot.

Stamkos is still in his prime, and there are other good pieces here: Duchene could easily beat his projection of 57; Klingberg and Parayko are a solid, young top pair. If it all comes together, the P-Rangers could surprise. But right now this looks like a GM who knows his job is on the line and is trying to look busy.

Valeri Nickrooshkins

Keeper points above replacement: 230

Draft strength: 74

Overall: 304 (4th)

Seeking to shake the bad-luck franchise label, the 'Shkins head into 2017-18 as a bona fide contender. The roster itself ranks just behind Philllipsdelphia and the Mackhawks in 6th, but the third-strongest draft position gives GMNR a boost. After Eichel and Hedman there is not a lot of elite talent, but there is great depth. I have this team keeping 6F+3D, but that leaves three forwards unprotected that are better than a lot of teams' worst keeper forward. So there is potential for GMNR to make a trade that will add draft picks this year or next. 

 

This is also one of only two teams with two goalies (Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky) above replacement, so if you're in the market for a goalie, contact GMNR. 

I like this team . Prospects Tyson Jost and Anthony DeAngelo are right on the cusp of contributing. If the Nickrooshkins finally get some bounces they should earn a regular season accolade in 2018 to add to their impressive 2017 Mackenzie Cup championship.

Joshfrey Krupuls

Keeper points above replacement: 203

Draft strength: 63

Overall: 266 (7th)

Since putting their GM's name on the trophy permanently the Joshfrey Krupuls have been inconsistent, finishing as high as 4th and low as 15th. They've made the playoffs three of the five years but I know GMJJWK is as dissatisfied with these results as he was with Adelina, the Spanish-Italian 27-year-old doctor/chef/model he took on a date who had never heard of Neutral Milk Hotel.

The Krupuls will likely keep 6F+3D with two of David Perron, Kyle Okposo and Conor Sheary missing the cut, though GMJJWK may see things differently. The team's projection suffers because Dobber doesn't like Martin Jones. The defence is good. The forwards are solid, led by Ryan Johansen and fading stars Ryan Getzlaf and Anze Kopitar. Kopitar may thrive again under a different coach, but the Krupuls still lack a bona fide super star or anyone projected to score 70. For that reason, it's probably more accurate to lump the 7th-ranked Krupuls in with the six teams ranked behind them than with the 6th-ranked Mackhawks. 

Prospects Robby Fabbri (is he really still a prospect?) and Shea Theodore are highly-rated and provide hope for the future, but for this season I think making the playoffs is probably the only realistic goal.

TBDs

Keeper points above replacement: 188

Draft strength: 71

Overall: 259 (T-10th)

Nobody could use a frank assessment of where his team stands more than the newest manger, GMTB. In fact, he was the inspiration to extend this exercise beyond answering the initial question - can I beat Sam?
I'm going to be completely honest with you, GMTB: this team will not win this season. However, this team is solidly in the middle of the pack, and with even a half-decent draft it could make the playoffs.

What's holding the Toilers back is their lack of even a replacement-level goaltender. Luongo backstopped the Moilers to multiple top-three finishes, but he's 38 - GMTB should show no loyalty here. The other option is Mrazek, coming off a poor season and playing for a pretty bad Red Wings team. Acquire another team's extra goaltender, such as Quick from the Nickrooshkins or Bishop from the Micahleks, and the TBDs' projection rises, but not by much.

I would consider not keeping a goaltender at all but drafting two by the middle of the draft, something the Nickrooshkins did last season with much success. That would make it 7F+3D, plus prospect Christian Dvorak.

The alternative is to blow the team up and sell your spleen for Dahlin (does that rhyme? I don't know). It's a bit drastic for a team with young stars like Forsberg and Kuznetsov just entering their prime (those guys would likely remain), but I could see GMTB wanting to put his stamp on the team. There are assets to move during the season, such as Giroux and Krejci, that could net reasonable returns of younger players, picks and prospects. On the other hand, a bounce-back season from Giroux almost certainly puts this team in the playoffs. 

There's a great opportunity here to avoid the missteps of previous expansion/take-over teams. Whatever you do GMTB, make a plan and stick to it during the draft, something many GMs in our league fail to do. 

Milan Micahleks

Keeper points above replacement: 302 (1st)

Draft strength: 61

Overall: 363 (1st)

Oh my - this is just an exquisitely constructed team. The Micahleks boast Dobber's #1 prospect, Clayton Keller (stolen at 112th overall last year) who is rosily projected to net 58 points this season. They are backstopped by #1-ranked goaltender Matt Murray (also drafted last season). Other newcomers include Zach Werenski, Sebastian Aho, and prospect Artturi Lehkonen (with a conservative 44-point projection). 

After winning the Krusell Cup in 2015, GMMC took a step back last season to completely restock the cupboards (finishing 3rd), and is now officially back on his bullshit. The average age of his 6F+3D keepers (not including prospects) is just 25.2 so this team has a ridiculously bright future.

I didn't design the model with being ranked first overall in mind, so I'm curious to see if it would hold up using projections other than Dobber's. Also curious what Stefan comes up with. Part of me definitely doesn't believe it when I give the "eye test" to my roster vs. Sam's. But that's why we play the games. See you at the draft.


Final rankings
1. Milan Micahleks
2. Patrik Stefans
3. Los Amjawors Kings
4. Valeri Nickrooshkins
5. Phillipsdelphia Flyers
6. Mackhawks
7. Joshfrey Krupuls
8. Powder Rangers
9. Fylanders
10. Rordiques
11. TBDs
12. Winter Claassics
13. Teeyotes
14. WBS Parkers
15. Schizzarks
16. Dicklas Lidstroms

Team-by-Team Season Preview Pt. 2 - Lafleur Division

Patrik Stefans

Keeper points above replacement: 272
Draft strength: 66
Overall: 338 (2nd)

Last year's Krusell Cup runner-up (also the runner up in 2015) boasts the most dangerous forward corps in the league. I have this team keeping 7F+2D and its seven forwards are projected to average 71 points.  To put that in perspective, there are five KL teams who don't have a single forward projected to score 71.

Last year's Krusell Cup runner-up (also the runner up in 2015) boasts the most dangerous forward corps in the league. I have this team keeping 7F+2D and its seven forwards are projected to average 71 points.  To put that in perspective, there are five KL teams who don't have a single forward projected to score 71.

If you want to know his
draft strategy (the last
redaction) email me

The back end, led by Drew Doughty and Ryan Suter, is a better top pair in real hockey than fantasy hockey, but Tuukka Rask still projects to be a solid fantasy goalie. Prospects Kyle Connor and Frank Vatrano did not factor into the analysis based on Dobber's projections, but both certainly have to potential to crack 40 points this season, further bolstering an already scary offence.

Based on keeper projections alone the P-Stefs would rank third. Factoring in their average draft position (compared to the LSJ Kings' poor draft position), they leapfrog into second place. Given the strength of this roster and the team's history of near-misses, GMSW absolutely must go for it this year. He'll need to draft a couple of good defencemen to do that but it's conceivable he already has his 9 scoring roster forwards. This GM has also been known to make shrewd preseason trades so I wouldn't be surprised if the Stefans look different before the draft. He's also extremely motivated (see text screencap). 

With a little luck, by this time next year GMSW will no longer have to face the shame of being the only former commissioner without a championship ring (to kiss when we get together for commissioner alumni scotch tastings).

Dicklas Lidstroms
Keeper points above replacement: 110
Draft strength: 85
Overall: 195 (16th)

If the Dicklas Lidstroms’ pattern of winning the KL every three years were to continue, the team would win this year. I don’t see that happening - in fact the only pattern I see is a possible repeat of being the automatic Commissioner. This team is without a doubt the worst in the league and possibly the worst in league history since K-Blat retired. There are some nice prospects in Alex Nylander and Mikhail Sergachev, but the team is still a good 2-3 years away from competing.

A year ago after the DLs finished 8th I thought they would bounce back in a hurry. Where did they go wrong? Well, here is a short list of players drafted after GMSD selected Jiri Hudler 25th overall last year: Alex Wennberg, Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, JT Miller, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, Brayden Point, Clayton Keller, etc.. Of course you could make the same criticisms of any GM, but the players GMSD seemed to be targeting (Vlad Namestnikov, Nick Bonino, Alex Killorn) were players that you might draft if you’ve got great keepers and you just need some 40-point players to round out the roster (although none of them actually scored 40 points). They aren't the top-flight talents a recovering team needs to draft, suggesting GMSD, like me, was mistaken in thinking the team was close to competing.

This season, GMSD has the benefit of the second-strongest draft position, and I'd like to see him put it to better use. It is strongly recommended to not half-ass the rebuild. Sell the veterans for whatever price can be had during the season and restock the cupboards. Corey Perry, Daniel Sedin, and Alex Steen have no business being on this team's keeper roster for 2018.


Teeyotes
Keeper points above replacement: 187
Draft strength: 68
Overall: 255 (13th)

The Teeyotes' best finish all-time was 3rd, and their worst was 11th. Last year they finished 5th, so to see them ranked 13th is a bit surprising, - but again, they are within 10 points of the 7th-ranked team, so its more accurate to say they start the season in a pack of six other equivalent teams chasing that 6th-place team. Some projections seem a bit low (Nylander 54? Try 154.) 

I have the Teeyotes keeping 7F+2D, but that leaves two of Brent Seabrook, Matt Dumba and Justin Schultz exposed. It might make more sense to ditch Lucic instead but how can you drop anyone who might play with McDavid? Dubois is a fine prospect, though not expected to be make an impact this year. I'm not sure I'd tie up a roster slot keeping prospect Michael Dal Colle, but I haven't followed him closely.

Age-wise, the team is balanced. Overall it's a good team with some stars and complimentary players at different stages in their development, but it's not on the same level as the top five teams this year.


Schizzarks
Keeper points above replacement: 141
Draft strength: 74
Overall: 215 (15th)

Oh, how far this franchise has fallen. But why? Is it loyalty to the guys that got him there ('there' being that 2nd place finish in 2011)? Is it ennui? It's probably ennui. Whatever it is, this team has lost its whimsy. Perhaps analytics consultant MA can bring it back.

Much like Jim Benning and Trevor Linden, GMMS has never seemed willing to fully commit to or publicly acknowledge a rebuild, but years of poor regular seasons and resultant high draft picks have sort of forced it to happen, willing participant or not.

I have this team keeping 5F+4D (that's how bad the forwards are). I realize it's difficult to trade non-superstar veteran guys like Parise (who has been a Schizzark for all 7 years), Spezza and Yandle in the offseason, but they should fetch reasonable returns during the season. None of those guys will still be good when this team is competitive again. Price should probably go too - in fact I would consider trading Price to a team that needs a goalie, like the TBDs, Rordiques or Phillipsadelphia Flyers.

On the bright side, GMMS has four prospects to choose from, and could even keep more than two at the expense of regular roster spots. Beyond Pavel Zacha though, I'm not overly excited about any of Nick Ritchie, Ryan Pulock, and Olli Juolevi.

Auston Matthews was a gift that cannot be squandered. He's a player you can build a fantasy team around. Assuming he peaks in 2018-19 and gives the Schizzarks a five-year window after that, GMMS's job is to build a supporting cast around him. That means targeting players in the draft with the most offensive potential, regardless of their expected arrival in the NHL or their degree of certainty. That means taking some risks and being prepared for another season focused on building rather than winning. The 2018 NHL draft class is supposed to be very good. Ask any Canucks fan. 

Look at him now! You never know.

2017-18 Team-by-Team Season Preview (Pt. 1 - Jagr Division)

In this three-part series I take stock of each team and examine its likely outcomes for the upcoming season. I also throw out a few unsolicited suggestions for pre-season trades, draft strategies or long-term plans. The focus is on setting realistic expectations and identifying weaknesses to address either now or down the road.

To provide a starting point for the analysis, I took Dobber's projections and assembled a keeper roster based on what would produce the most projected points above replacement value. I used 40 as replacement value for a forward, 30 for a defenceman and 70 for a goalie. That's basically what you could get from the free agent pool at any time. That's also pretty close to the bottom keeper slot average that we used to establish prospect thresholds (39 and 28), which means if a player is projected below that level, he probably not going to help your team this year. Of course this is all based on projections, which you can quibble with. For most teams the maximum points-above-replacement resulted from keeping one goalie and either 6F+3D, or 7F+ 2D. However, one team was best at 8F+1D, and another was, surprisingly, best at 5F+4D. Also, a couple of teams might be better not keeping a goalie, assuming they don't trade for one, but I have assumed that each team kept its best goalie.

I also looked at anticipated points from the draft based on draft position and number of picks. Of course some GMs will be targeting prospects but it is useful to know how many points relative to your peers you could potentially pick up if you were trying to pick up scorers. I assigned each pick a value based on anticipated points above 40/30/70 (as explained above). So the first overall pick was given a value of +25 because I figure you could get a 65-point forward or a 55-point defenceman or a 95-point goalie (think last year's Patrik Laine, Auston Matthews, Shayne Gostisbehere, Sergei Bobrovsky, etc.). The assigned value drops rapidly and then slows, tapering off at +1 in the 9th round.  This resulted in a draft strength score ranging between 44 for the Los Amjawors Kings who are missing their first and third-rounders, and 94 for the Powder Rangers who have two firsts, two thirds and two fourths. Of course not all of your picks will count toward your scoring roster, but this is about your chance of drafting a better-than-replacement-level player relative to other GMs, not about raw points. Therefore, the total points is not raw projected points but projected points "above replacement". It serves as an anchoring point for expectations. I would call any two teams within 10 points of each other effectively tied.

To refer to GMs I have used initials because this a public blog and these fantasy sports habits are shameful. After that long-winded intro, let's get to it...

Jagr Division 

Fylanders

Keeper points above replacement: 192
Draft strength: 69
Overall: 261 (9th)

I have the Fylanders protecting 7F+2D, but I'm not excited about any of the fish being thrown back into the pond. GMFV pulled chute in the middle of last season and started to retool the roster, making a 6-for-6 trade with the Mackhawks that added likely keepers Elias Lindholm, Dylan Larkin and Rickard Rakell. On its face, the team is markedly improved over last season, in which it finished 14th and inspired a memorable, if self-indulgent, blog post from GMFV. But in my view it is far from competitive and needs more dramatic changes. I just don't see any elite young talent in the pipeline to complement, and eventually replace, Backstrom and Pavelski. The Fylanders really screwed themselves in the 2015 draft when they took Chris Kunitz 8th overall and David Pastrnak went 9th.

If I know GMFV, he will not go full-tank. He'll draft well enough and he'll be able to wheel and deal this team into a playoff spot. But I think that's giving short-term interests priority over long-term goals. I know how badly GMFV wants to win the Krussel Cup, and I don't see this roster getting him anywhere close before Backstrom starts to decline with age.

Phillipsdelphia Flyers (name change to be confirmed)

Keeper points above replacement: 232
Draft strength: 62
Overall: 294 (5th)

Admittedly I struggle to make a fair assessment of this team. It is far removed from its days of back-to-back championships, but it has never missed the playoffs and it placed 4th the last two seasons - a testament to GMGP's skill in gradually turning over the roster while remaining competitive. This year is more of the same: I have the Phils ranked 5th in the pre-season, with their score taking a hit from the projection for Pekka Rinne as a below-replacement netminder. I could see Rinne having a huge bounce-back season, but I could also see Juuse "me taking these starts" Saros taking a lot of starts (Juuse what I did there?). GMGP will seek to do what I did last year and find a long-term replacement starter in the draft. There are usually one or two available.

This is still a very strong roster than can expect to compete for a money spot, but teams like the Mackhawks are younger and right on their heels. The Valtteri Phillipsulas are, for probably the first time in their history, projected without an 80-point scorer, although either Malkin or Seguin (or for that matter, Karlsson), if healthy, could easily clear that hurdle. The two prospects, Kevin Fiala and Julius Honka, are worth keeping but only Honka has a real chance to move the needle this year, and he's not projected to crack 30 this season.

What to do with Brayden Point is the big question. He scored too much to be a prospect, but can you keep him on your main roster over Max Domi, Derek Stepan or Jordan Eberle? Probably not, so GMGP may be wise to test the market for Point (or if he believes Point is ready this year, perhaps it's time to sell Malkin, who is 31 and hasn't played 70 games in any of the last five seasons?)

Quebec Rordiques

Keeper points above replacement: 198
Draft strength: 61
Overall: 259 (T-10th)

This projection has Brayden Schenn scoring 70 points, so take it with a lick of salt. The Rordiques have two decent goalies but neither is projected above replacement level. Can Elliott start (never mind win) the majority of Philly's games? Can the Devils not completely suck in front of Cory Schneider? I'm not sure I'd wager my season on either.

I have the Rordiques keeping seven very good forwards and two defencemen. In addition, GMRJ probably wants to keep both Tkachuk and Reinhart, but at what cost? Eric Staal put up 65 points last year. Jonathan Toews is team captain! So I have the Rordiques leaving both youngsters behind, demonstrating the central failure of our prospect system - GMRJ targeted them, drafted them, coddled them, and now they are too good to be prospects, but not good enough to be keepers, so they go back in the pool. All of this leads him to ask: what was the point? To which I ask: why did you abstain from voting (effectively voting 'no') on prospect reform?

The Rordiques have to make a push here and just make the damn playoffs. It's been six years. You'll be $600 in the red this October, GMRJ. Show the owners something. Show the fans something.

Winter Claassics

Keeper points above replacement: 190
Draft strength: 67
Overall: 257 (12th)

In the last four years the Winter Claassics have finished 6th, 8th, 5th, and 8th. Impressive consistency, and for that reason the preseason ranking of 12th is a bit disheartening. However, that point total is only seven points back of 7th, and I said above anything within 10 points should be considered a draw. I also think some of the projections are low (Landeskog 46?). So I do think this is a strong contender to make the playoffs. But it's very tight between 7th and 14th and a lot of GMs are going to be disappointed.

I have the Claassics as the only team keeping 8F+1D. That still leaves Tanner Pearson and Patrick Marleau up front and Mike Green on the back end exposed or as possible trade bait. Okay, probably exposed. GMDC has Kiefer Bellows as his only potential prospect (I believe). Bellows has left Boston University and will play for the Portland Winterhawks next season. He's definitely no Clayton Keller but I guess he might be worth holding onto for another year?

This team has a nice mix of players before their prime, in their prime and past their prime. I wouldn't blow it up, but it will need an exceptional draft and some good luck to finally crack the top four.

Wilkes-Benham Scranton Parkers

Keeper points above replacement: 175
Draft strength: 61
Overall: 236 (14th)

From 16th to 14th to 9th last year, the WBS Parkers appear to be trending in the right direction. The team trailed only the Los Amjawors Kings and the Patrik Stefans in points per game last season and had the fewest man-games played of any team. Many pundits were already calling them a sexy sleeper pick to make the playoffs this season. Unfortunately, Dobber doesn't see it that way. I've double checked the math and it's right, but I gotta disagree. I like this team and if it all comes together they should be in the playoffs. Make no mistake, it is much closer to the teams ahead of it than the teams behind it.

In my opinion, however, GMRBP has stunted his team's growth in the same way that GMRJ has, by being unwilling to embrace being bad for a year or two in the beginning in order to be really good later. Last year the team almost became respectable, but now it's at a cross-roads: sink, swim, or continue treading water? Sometimes you are treading water with wet clothes. You could keep treading water for a long time but ultimately those wet clothes are weighing you down. You need to stop treading water and ditch the wet clothes, even if you sink a bit. Then, unencumbered by the water-logged clothes, you'll rise to the surface, triumphant. That's the best metaphor I could come up with.

Ivan Provorov unfortunately is not a prospect, but I think he has to be kept. I have the Parkers keeping 7F+2D, and some of those forwards are great (Leon Draisaitl) but some of them are not keepers on a playoff team (e.g., three of Tyler Bozak, Evander Kane, Tomas Tatar and James Neal?). If this team is not in at least 8th place after the first third of the season I would tear it all down and build around Provorov, Draisaitl and Cam Talbot.

Los Amjawors Kings

Keeper points above replacement: 285
Draft strength: 44
Overall: 329 (3rd)

The impetus for this analysis was wanting to know if the reigning champs were beatable. Thankfully, they are, and in fact they 'should' be beaten by two teams, and could be beaten by a few others if the bounces go the right/wrong way.

The team's weakness is that it lacks scoring depth. After McDavid, Crosby, Tarasenko, Burns and Holtby (okay, arguably the best defenceman, best goalie, best two forwards and another top-15 forward in our format), the roster falls off a cliff. Relying on a few players for the bulk of your points is a risky strategy.

GMSJ doesn't make a selection in the draft until 32nd overall. Maybe he doesn't need to find a 60-point forward; maybe he can win with 50-point forwards and 35-point defencemen (as he did last year). But if he doesn't draft well, a lot of things will have to go right for GMSJ to win again. The big five will have to be mostly healthy. And he'll have to find a way to make deals with other GMs who will be naturally cautious in approaching trades, particularly after what happened with Brent Burns last off-season.

I am not going to give any roster-tinkering suggestions to GMSJ. I've done that in the past and look what it's done for him - turned him into a champion. He's on his own now.

Mackhawks

Keeper points above replacement: 238
Draft strength: 48
Overall: 236 (6th)

After two consecutive playoff championships (fun fact: nobody other than the Mackhawks has won the playoffs when the Mackhawks qualify for the playoffs) the Mackhawks missed the playoffs by three points in 2014-15 and saw the writing on the wall. To be accurate, it took one more season and a 14th-place in 2015-16 finish to convince GMMM to go all-in on the rebuild (holding onto captain Phil Kessel of course). But he finally did it, and in doing so published the blueprint for other GMs to emulate. The lottery win for Patrick Laine last year accelerated the rebuild to the point that the Mackhawks were unintentionally competitive last season, a year ahead of schedule. They traded some assets to support a playoff push that was ultimately unsuccessful but highly entertaining.

I don't think GMMM will miss what he traded. The team currently boasts the third best group of forwards in the KL (I have them keeping 7F+2D). They are so stacked I have them discarding Trouba and Giordano on defence. Their only weakness is their draft position as GMMM is missing his third and fourth-round selections.  I'm calling it - 2017-18 marks the return of the Mackhawks. They are an absolute lock for the playoffs and an outside chance to earn money.

This year GMMM doesn't need prospects and can take a more balanced approach in the draft, but must nab a couple of reliable 50-point players. The Mackhawks boast four excellent prospects in Mikko Rantanen, Travis Konecny, Timo Meier and Matt Barzal. They can't keep them all, so if you have space for prospects you should be calling, not texting, GMMM. Tell him I sent you, and while you're at it, ask him for advice on turning around a franchise.

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That was our biggest of three divisions. Stay tuned for the next two divisional breakdowns on consecutive weekends.

The Top 5 Reasons the Fylanders Never Won a God Damn Thing

Over the last six KL seasons, the Fylanders have always finished in the top 5. Since the days of LLP, this team has always been a threat to win, yet never hoisted the coveted Krusell Cup. Despite being the cumulative KL points leader heading into this year and having more top 5 finishes than the Shizzarks, Teeyotes, Mackhawks, Winter Claasics, Los Amjawors Kings, Quebec Rordiques, and WBS Parkers COMBINED, this GM failed its fan base by never bringing home the big prize.

#5 The Prospect System: The point threshold of the prospect system would put the Fylanders in a tough spot. At the time, the team boasted Seth Jones and Morgan Rielly. The team opted to move Jones for spare parts (as he was 1 point ahead of Rielly at the time) with the hope that Rielly would be kept under the prospect system. At the end of the year, Jones fell one point below the threshold, whereas Rielly had crossed it by 1. The Fylanders bitterly lost both players.

#4 The Trade Myth: Early on the Fylanders made a couple of lopsided deals that were highly publicized. Since that time, teams around the league (the Milan Micahleks, the Powder Rangers, the Flyers, and the Patrik Stefans) have successfully perpetuated the myth that the Fylanders have continually ripped GMs off.  It has gone so far that simple trades have been challenged by the league. The bullying of teams such as the Rordiques, have made other GMs tentative. This has hindered the Fylanders ability to get anything done in a league where trades have been stymied. It is worth noting some of the trades the Fylanders have lost. 

*Note: The Fylanders traded JVR for Lehtera with the Rordiques

*Note: The Fylanders dealt Pacioretty for Iginla with the Patrik Stefans

*Note: The Fylanders turned down a deal for Dubnyk in the offeseason for a draft pick

*Several other transactions discussed below.

#3 In Season Mismanagement: While I do not have the historical data from the first four seasons, the number of costly add/drops or trading for small upgrades that have backfired, have been plentiful. Look no further than the add/drop of Ribiero for Hyman this year. These small transactions pail in comparison of the Fylanders inability to close a deal with the Micahleks last year, which would have seen Brad Marchand as a Fylander. The hold up was a 5^th round pick. The GM continues to lose sleep over this missed opportunity.

#2 Poor Drafting: The Fylanders have choked on draft day. Partly due to the Patrik Stefan’s carnal desires, however that doesn’t excuse the Chris Kunitz pick of 2015. He was a massive misstep when the Fylanders had Panarin and Pasternak circled on their draft sheet. While solid drafting late has helped keep this team afloat, major errors in early rounds and “playing it safe” is why this team remained a bridesmaid and never a bride.

#1 Brent Burns: Oh how the Fylanders have ripped off every GM in the league. Rarely discussed is the worst trade in KL history perhaps  (although acknowledged in the previous post). Brent Burns to the Mackhawks for a 4^th round pick. At the time Burns was a forward, but it was already well reported that he would shift back to D. With a wealth of talent at the time, the Fylanders didn’t think twice about moving Burns, which now looms as the biggest mistake in franchise history.

While I am sure every team could go through the what ifs, it is not unconceivable that the Fylanders roster could have had Backstrom, Pavelsky, Marchand, Burns, Panarin, Weber, etc.

A lack of a goaltender this year and an unwillingness to move MAF or Vasilevskiy for a long-term downgrade put the team in a position to rebuild. Perhaps good timing, with the record-breaking season that’s occurring up top. With stars like Pavelsky, Backstrom, Monahan, and Weber, as long as time sorts out the goaltending situation, the Fylanders restructure will be a 1-year process. With young players like RNH, Larkin, Vesey, Marchessault Lindholm, Leddy, Bjorgstrand, etc. the team should have options come spring… and this time we’ll get the job done.

But hey maybe I should just shut up because I haven't won a god damn thing yet.

Who the H does Brent Burns think he is?

Seriously.

As of the date of writing, Brent Burns sits 3rd in NHL scoring, behind only Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby, the consensus best players on the planet. While his beard seems to continue to get all the attention, there aren't enough hyperboles or superlatives to describe just how astonishing his ascendance as a hockey player has been. Below, I chronicle both his playing career, and his career in the KL.

The first season you'll find on hockeydb for Mr. Burns is a stint with the Couchiching Terriers in 2001-02 in the OPJHL [Sidenote: GM of the Fylanders had a cup of coffee in this league 5 years later with Orangeville], where he manned the blue line alongside a dude named Joe Bowcock, who is now a lawyer, actually. After an impressive next season with the Battalion in the "O", he was drafted into the Wild's system, and spent a couple years developing in Houston. In the 2004-05 lock-out season, he put up 27 points in 73 games for the Aeros. For comparison, Clayton fucking Stoner put up 24 points in 73 games the very next season there. I guess by the time Brent Burns got the call for full-time service with the Wild post-lockout, he was likely set to become a serviceable defenceman in the National Hockey League. Little more could be said, and I imagine little else was being said.

To be fair, Burns acquitted himself impressively on the backend in Minnesota upon arrival, and eclipsed the 40 point mark in just his third full season. By 2008-09, he was arguably the best all-round dman there, though his competition for such acclaim was found in the likes of Kurtis Foster and Marek Zidlicky. I don't really recall taking note.

We started this wonderful keeper league of ours in September 2010. In that inaugural draft, 57 defencemen were taken before Brent Burns, who went 219th overall in the 15th round. Oddly enough, Kurtis Foster and Marek Zidlicky went before him, 211th and 216th, respectively. Burns impressed in that first KL season, putting up 46 points in 80 games and earning him a keeper spot with the Dicklas Lidstroms. Still, I don't remember the "elite" label getting slapped to his name, nor does it appear that GM of the Lidstroms thought likewise when he dealt Burns midseason 2011-12 to the Joshfrey Krupuls in a trade I don't really understand at all in hindsight (I invite either GM to comment on this mass D swap). So much is clear, however, that Burns was not thought to be KL championship material.

Then came the move in real life that seems to have changed everything for Brent Burns. Ron Wilson sent cute little Devin Setoguchi-guchi-goo and Charlie Coyle to the twin cities and locked up the future Norris trophy winner (calling it, hardly bold) for 5.76m AAV over the next 5 seasons. Burns had been making Luca Sbisa money (or Clayton Stoner money, if you will) prior to that. Wilson saw something in Burns, beyond testosterone, that hadn't fully been unleashed.

For all that investment and hype, we didn't really buy in as a GM collective. Sure, JKru kept Burns going into the lock-out shortened 2012-13 season, but after seeing him put up 20 points in an even more shortened 30 game season, he.... DROPPED him! The Fylanders were quick to nab him the ensuing draft, and in the first round at 13th overall I might add, but not before they had already taken Seth Jones earlier in that round, and not before former Burns owner and GM of the Lidstroms decided to pass and take Tobias Enstrom at 9th overall. The Fylanders' GM hardly saw this as a coup, either, and sent Burns to the Mackhawks prior to the 2014 draft for a goddam fourth round pick! Fy used that pick to take one coked-out Mike Richards. Yeah, Fy basically dropped him too.

Meanwhile, Burns steadily increased his production. We all are now familiar enough with the numbers over the last three seasons, not to mention the $8m per that he's secured until he's 40 years old. But just so there is really no confusion: he put up 60 points, then 75, and is now on pace for 87 this season, a total that won Jamie Benn the Art Ross in 2014-15. He hasn't missed a game since November 2013.

But I guess the Mackhawks still weren't convinced with what they had before this season started, and sent Burns packing to the Kings for a bunch of over-privileged youth, whom I suppose, and as this blogpost attests to, we have absolutely no clue what will become of over the next decade. A slight aside, in what is my favourite side story to continue following in this KL campaign: had the Mackhawks kept Burns, and either taken Peter Budaj somewhere in the draft or dropped Quick for Budaj, even if more for comedic effect/relief, they would currently have 513 points. Now take all of the extra Burns points away from the Los Amjawors Kings, and for argument's sake, assume that Niskanen doesn't funnel to the Stefans as what was very much a by-product of all of this, and the Mackhawks would be leading the Keeper League. Let me repeat that. The Mackhawks would be leading the keeper league!

Dobber has Brent Burns ranked as number 1 among defensemen to own in points only keeper league (as of today!). The hockey world is starting to utter his name in the same sentences as Paul Coffey and even Bobby Orr. And he's been playing with a swagger while surely giving zero fucks about what anyone thinks about his face or his play.

Maybe the better question is who the H do we think Brent Burns is?