In my view it is still way too early to tell whether goalies are worth too much in this league, but here's a quick overview of what the standings would look like if we eliminated points for shut outs all together, counting only the two points for the win. I'm not advocating such a change, but its a handy way to tell at a glance who is relying too heavily on shutout points from goaltenders:
New Pos | Old Pos | Change | Name | Pts | S/Os | Total SO pts | New total w/o SOs |
1 | 1 | 0 | St. Jewish Blues | 142 | 3 | 21 | 127 |
2 | 3 | 1 | Powder Rangers | 127 | 1 | 7 | 122 |
3 | 4 | 1 | Carmada | 126 | 1 | 7 | 121 |
3 | 4 | 1 | Mackhawks | 126 | 1 | 7 | 121 |
5 | 7 | 2 | Fylanders | 120 | 0 | 0 | 120 |
6 | 2 | -4 | Winter Claassics | 128 | 2 | 14 | 118 |
7 | 6 | -1 | Wittman's Hitmen | 125 | 2 | 14 | 115 |
8 | 8 | 0 | Schizzarks | 116 | 1 | 7 | 111 |
9 | 10 | 1 | J-kru's A-crew | 110 | 0 | 0 | 110 |
10 | 11 | 1 | Fightin' Irish | 108 | 0 | 0 | 108 |
11 | 8 | -3 | G-Phil's Flyers | 116 | 2 | 14 | 106 |
12 | 11 | -1 | Dicklas Lidstroms | 108 | 1 | 7 | 103 |
13 | 13 | 0 | Preydators | 106 | 1 | 7 | 101 |
13 | 13 | 0 | Moilers | 106 | 1 | 7 | 101 |
15 | 15 | 0 | Manitoba Roos | 97 | 0 | 0 | 97 |
A few things jump out:
- K-Blat is still leading the way, though his current 14 point lead is brought down to a more reasonable 5 points.
- Dave Claassen takes the biggest hit, dropping from 2nd place to 6th place and losing 10 points - though with 3 points currently separating 2nd and 6th, thats not awfully suprising.
- I take the second biggest hit in the standings, dropping three spaces and 10 points.
- The biggest beneficiary is Fy, who actually gains 2 positions. As one of only four GMs with zero current shutouts - and the only one in the top 8 - he is in perhaps the best position overall to make a big November push if Turco puts together a few shutouts, or Fleury remembers what, exactly, he's in the league for.
In any event, this is still awfully early, and this has been a weird year with obscenely hot starts from okay players, and no production at all from previously consistent stars. I, for one, dig the idea that Nittymaki could string together 4 shutouts in a couple of weeks and propel Roos, however artificially, to the top of the league. With so many points coming from a single position, any hold at the top is tenuous and no one at the bottom is every truly out of it.
Thanks for this Greg. It confirms what I always thought - the shutout thing seems like a bigger issue than it is. For those of us (me) who check the pool every. single. morning, when someone gets s shutout on a Monday night and jumps 4 spots in the standings, it seems ridiculous. But here we see that shutouts are [somewhat] spread out, and it isn't making or breaking the league.
ReplyDeleteThat said, you are right that it is early, and I may regret trading Tim Thomas for futures...
Nice one Greg.
ReplyDeleteThat bugger got another shutout last night. It certainly feels like he's pulling away - but lots of goalies were drafted before Halak, so either goalies are a crapshoot or Kblat is a genius. His record in hockey pools supports the latter.
For the record, K-Blat will confirm my stream of g-chat expletives when he took Halak the round I intended to. But at this point in the game, an extra shutout or two wouldn't have a significant impact on my position - the reality is that my team has underachieved. How the hell does Chris Stewart have like a 7 point lead on Alex Ovechkin??
ReplyDeleteAt least Lidstrom is on pace for a 90 point season.
Shouldn't shutouts be multiplied by 5, rather than 7, in your analysis?
ReplyDeleteMicah - they are multiplied by 7 in the "Total SO points" column for the purposes of illustrating how many points come from the SO+win. I think the fact that the net value of a SO is 7 points caught some people off guard and I thought it was fun to see how quickly those points add up.
ReplyDeleteThe "New total w/o SOs" column properly subtracts only the 5 SO points, still including the 2 pts for the win.
Got it.
ReplyDelete