Projections

Its really early in the season, and already I can feel panic rising amongst bottom-feeders. I also hear that Fy (currently #1) has been seen already spending his expected 1st place winnings around Victoria.

Some of you may know that this year I decided to spring for Dobber's Guide as my primary source for projections. Time will tell whether that was a good move or not, but one of the benefits of the package is that you get the projections in a nicely organized, sortable, filterable spreadsheet. Taking a cue from the Patrick Stefans GM's playbook, I thought it might be interesting to create a spreadsheet that inserted the projected points of each of our players and count up the top 9/4/1 to see what the end of the season might look like. 

The results are interesting:

1	G-Phil's Flyers	931
2	Moilers	862
3	Milan Micahleks	852
4	Schizzarks	820
5	Dicklas Lidstroms	810
6	Winter Claassics	803
7	Powder Rangers	793
8	Joshfrey Krupuls	790
9	Fylanders	786
10	Mackhawks	778
11	Quebec Rordiques	778
12	Teeyotes	750
13	Patrik Stefans	743
14	W-Benham/Scranton Parkers	741
15	Los Samjawors Kings	734
16	Vanrooser Canicks	712

I don't think a top 5 finish like projected above would surprise anyone. Obviously the Flyers are the favourites to repeat. The Moilers have been very good recently and a good draft may help. The Micahleks may finally taste a money spot, and both the Schizzarks and Dicklas Lidstroms have been competitive.

But seriously, what the fuck are the Winter Claassics doing in 6th place?? 
Let's look a bit closer at the projections for their season:

D	P.K. Subban	62
D	Mike Green	59
D	Matthew Carle	41
D	Raphael Diaz	35

The top 4 projected D are where he makes up the bulk of his points, with a huge season for Subban, a rebound season for Green, and good performances from Carle and Diaz. The rest of his forward group are all good (not great) fantasy performers - what the Claassics lack in top end talent they make up for a group of bottom forwards that will be above average across the board. I think this reinforces the general consensus that the Claassics GM did a fine job at the draft this year (Erat aside, but who saw that coming?)

Also, the Fylanders in 9th? 
Dobber predicts declines across the board from the Fylander's aging forward group, with no single player scoring at > PPG. That said, the Fylander's roster rarely looks the same at the end of the season as it did at the start, so who knows what might happen here.

WTF happened to the Vanrooser Canicks? 
This, folks, is what happens when you lose your franchise forward to the KHL. I am told that Canicks GM Nick Roos and NJ Devils GM Lou Lamoriello have been seen together poking pins into dolls and filling Matryoshka dolls with their tears. 

General observations 
Top 4 Total Defence Points

League Average: 164.625 points
Best: G-Phil's Flyers at 203. Second, Claassics at 197 (Subban and a bounce-back from Green). Third, Moilers at 195.

Worst: Los Samjawors Kings, with 134. Rordiques, Teeyotes, and Canicks all with less than 150 points on the back end.

Top 9 Total Offence Points

League Average: 542.93 points

Best: G-Phil's Flyers, by a wide margin - 630. Shizzarks in the 570 range. Moilers and the Joshfrey Krupuls in the 560s.

Worst: Canicks, by a mile, with 480. Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers with 507, the Patrick Stefans with 508. 

Questions? Comments? Want to see the spreadsheet? Let me know.