Dobber's Projections 2014-15

I did this last year and it was a lot of fun. 

In short, I took our draft day rosters and compared them to Dobber's projected point totals - not because Dobber is infallible (he is not - see my 4th overall pick of Nik Kulemin in 2012), but because his draft guide happens to come in spreadsheet. 

Last Year
First, a review of last year's results.  Many projections were very accurate - a couple were way off, though it is important to consider how many trades/injuries/etc. occur throughout the year. I've bolded each of the projections that were within 2 spots.

	Actual	Projected	+/-
G-Phil's Flyers	1	1	0
Milan Micahleks	2	3	+1
Fylanders	3	9	+6
Mackhawks	4	10	+6
Powder Rangers	5	7	+2
Winter Claassics	6	6	0
Teeyotes	7	12	+5
Joshfrey Krupuls	8	8	0
Moilers	9	2	-7
Dicklas Lidstroms	10	5	-5
Los Samjawors Kings	11	15	+4
Patrik Stefans	12	13	+1
Schizzarks	13	4	-9
WBS Parkers	14	14	0
Vanrooser Canicks	15	16	+1
Quebec Rordiques	16	11	-5

Upcoming Year
This year, like last year, I took the top 9/4/1 projected points from each position and came up with the following projection.

 Like last year the results are interesting, with a few surprises:

1	G-Phil's Flyers	832
2	Joshfrey Krupuls	816
3	Dicklas Lidstroms	810
4	Magnus Faajarvis	795
5	Milan Micahleks	786
6	Los Amjawors Kings	786
7	Mackhawks	782
8	Moilers	779
9	Winter Claassics	766
10	Powder Rangers	760
11	Schizzarks	760
12	Patrik Stefans	755
13	WBS Parkers	723
14	Vanrooser Canicks	720
15	Teeyotes	707
16	Quebec Rordiques	695

The Flyers are the favourites to repeat. Hilariously, the Patrik Stefans are the favourites to end up in 12th place again.

Of note, the tumble of the Teeyotes. They have an underwhelming group of defencemen, lead by Jason Garrison with a projected 37 points, and a forward group that gets pretty sparse after the top few. Noted family friend Alex Killorn is projected to make the Teeyotes roster - that is not a credit to his talent (sorry pal). 

In another unexpectedly low result - the Powder Rangers! Two years removed from a 2nd place finish, and 1 year removed from a season-ruining injury to Stamkos, surely the Rangers would be back in the playoffs? Not with Ryan Miller they won't. The team features a projected above-average defence and offense group, but with a measley 58 points in the net, the Rangers may be in trouble.

On the sunnier side, the Joshfrey Krupuls and Dicklas Lidstroms look poised to challenge for top spot - they boast the #1 and #2 best projected offenses in the league, roughly average defences and average to above-average goaltending.

Anyone else notice the Los Amjawors Kings creeping up the standings each year?

General observations:
Top 4 Total Defence Points

League Average: 166.75 points
Best: G-Phil's Flyers at 199. Second, Claassics at 186 (Subban and a bounce-back from Green). Third, the Magnus Faajarvis at 181.

Worst: Teeyotes with 132. Rordiques, Parkers and sort of surprisingly, the Mackhawks all with 160 or fewer D points. 

Top 9 Total Offence Points

League Average: 520.628 points

Best: The Joshfrey Krupuls, with 574 points. The Dicklas Lidstroms and G-Phil's Flyers are a step behind at 558 and 556 respectively. Then another big jump to the Kings, Mackhawks and Moilers at 542, 541 and 540.

Worst: The Rordiques, with 458. The Vanrooser Canicks with 479 bridge the gap to the Teeyotes, at 495. 

Goaltending
The best projected goaltender belongs to the Milan Micahleks with 95 projected points. They need it - they are, according to this projection, literally the most average team in the KL. Their 520 forward points and 171 defensive points are just about the closest the the league average as you can get. 

This projects a grim year in net for the the WBS Parkers, who might expect 67 points - but at least that is better than the Powder Ranger's Ryan Miller's 58, the lowest projected total of all goaltenders.