KL Week in Review: Week 16 (plus some transactions)

16 weeks in and things are starting to get a little interesting again:

Notes for the week:

• The G-Phil's Flyers hold on 1st place is increasingly tenuous as both the Fylanders and Micahleks continue to close the gap. 
• The Micahleks have had a huge week with a league-leading 44 points, 11 of which came last night
• The Powder Rangers continue to cling to 4th place - remarkably, though, the Winter Claassics were in 4th place for portions of the last week
• The Los Amjawors Kings have slowed down somewhat but remain a viable playoff team, much to the surprise of early season prognosticators
• The Patrik Stefans are really, really good at holding 12th place. 
• The Schizzarks teased the bottom of the league last week but have managed to pull themselves up to a comparatively respectable 15th place. 

Injury notes :

The Winter Claassics are, remarkably, the only 100% healthy team in the league right now. There are some key injuries to a lot of teams that may result in some shuffling in the standings over the next week or two:

• G-Phil's Flyers - Mike Babcock says not to expect Pavel Datsyuk back "any time soon". With both the Fylanders and Micahleks coming fast, 1st place is very much up for grabs
• Milan Micahleks - Ryan Getzlaf isn't broken but his return date is unknown. The Micahleks expect to win, but these injuries are letting the Fylanders catch up.
• Teeyotes - Standout goaltender Ben Bishop has a sprained wrist. He is experimenting with different taping strategies but his return date is unknown. The Teeyotes are 9 points from a money spot but only 8 points from 9th place - these are critical lost points.
• Mackhawks - Johan Franzen (22 points in 30 games) has been a steady producer for the Mackhawks, but is at least a week or more away from returning from his concussion. The Mackhawks need their depth to hold 8th.
• Moilers - Luongo, Eric Staal, and Patrik Elias are all day-to-day with no real timelines for their return. Lengthy absences from these players could spell doom for the Moiler's playoff chances
• Dicklas Lidstroms - injuries to Koivu and Alex Steen are hurting the Lidstroms playoff chances. Gaborik's injuries woes this season have already started the Lidstroms off on the wrong foot. Word is these guys may even be ready in time for the Olympics.
• Patrik Stefans - Both Couture and Galchenyuk - key young contributors - are out with hand injuries. Both are weeks away from returning.
• Schizzarks - An MCL injury to Parenteau and a foot injury to Parise have been a significant factor in the Schizzark's precipitous fall to the bottom of the league. Neither player is skating and both face lengthy recoveries. 
• WBS Parkers - Evander Kane is expected back shortly, but stunning rookie Thomas Hertl (a possible cornerstone forward for the expansion Parkers) is likely done for the season. The team has not said as much, but estimate as long as 9 months for recovery. There is no guarantee he will come back in the same form either - rough break for this team. 

Transactions:

There have been a few transactions over the last while. 

Jan-2-14
Moilers drop Lee Stempniak and add Andrew Cogliano.

Quickie analysis: Cogliano sucks less than Stempniak. Great mid-season pickup.

Jan-2-14
Patrik Stefans drop Ondrej Pavelec and add Anton Khudobin

Quickie analysis: System's spreadsheets have finally pumped out a winner (why there is a heavy unheralded Soviet bias in System's system is beyond me). Khudobin has filled in admirably for the injured Cam Ward, posting a 6-1-0 with a .936 save percentage this season.

Jan-5-14 - Trade

Joshfrey Krupuls send Joffrey Lupul and a 2014 7th round draft pick to the


Fylanders for Dustin Penner and a 2014 3rd round draft pick

Quickie analysis: The Fylanders dump slumping Penner for (surprise surprise) a Maple Leaf. Lupul is the better player and the Fylanders got him cheap. Headscratcher for the Krupuls but maybe they think Penner's time in the press box will jumpstart his production.

Jan-8-14 - Trade
Quebec Rordiques send Andrew Ladd and Antoine Vermette to the
Los Amjawors Kings for Mikael Grigorenko and Curtis Glencross

Quickie analysis: The Kings can taste a playoff spot and maybe even a money spot. They need depth scoring and got it in Ladd and Vermette. The price was promising youngster Grigorenko. Interestingly, Grigorenko has refused to report to the Q and his NHL future is in question, but his potential is huge. We'll have to wait to see what happens to declare a winner. 

Back in the mix

Granted, I had a much anticipated set-back last night with only 1 point in 5 man games, but the Patrik Stefans have steadily climbed their way from the bottom of the pack back a playoff spot over the last 3 weeks.  There was much to celebrate as I checked the standings yesterday morning to find myself in 5th!

(Belated) 2013 Keeper League Awards Ceremony!

I know, its a bit late and the new season is upon us, but in fairness, last season was a shit-show. It is also kind of fun to look at how some of these award-winners are faring thus far into our new season. 

Thanks to the other members of the Awards Committee (Past-Commissioner and Deputy Commissioner) for your assistance in putting your thoughts together on this like, months ago.

So without further ado, here are the award winners for the 2013 season!

Calder: 

The best fantasy player drafted for the first time in the Keeper League.

This year's trophy goes to Braden Holtby and the team that drafted him, the Powder Rangers. Holtby put up 60 points as a goaltender, which was good for 2nd in the league (behind only Antti Niemi's 61). 

HM: The Mackhawks' Justin Schultz, with 27 pts - not only was that good for 12th in the league in defensive scoring, but put him within 4 points of the rookie scoring lead (as a defenceman).

Doug Wilson:  

Awarded to the most active GM.

In perhaps the least surprising result in this entire ceremony, Fy Virani wins this one by a landslide, with 15 discrete transactions entered. 

I have to share an email I got that describes, perfectly and hilariously, the stages Fy's trading partners go through (I'll leave it anonymous but if the author wants to take credit, step forward):

1. Denial ("No, I won't even consider it."); 
2. Anger ("How can he insult me with an offer like that?"); 
3. Bargaining ("He's right, swapping my 9th for his 8th does make this fair."); 
4. Depression ("OMG everyone is laughing at me. I suck at GMing"); 
5. Acceptance ("Write it off. Fy got me this time, but next year will be different!")

HM: The Columbus Blue Jaworskis (before their relocation to sunnier climes) were very busy as well, with 9 entered transactions. 

Ken Holland:  

Best draft pick.

This one is was very hard as there were a LOT of candidates and the Awards Committee struggled mightily. At the end of the day:

The Teeyotes with Evgeni Nabokov (drafted in the 10th round, 159th overall). Nabokov earned 59 points for the Teeyotes, good for the 3rd best goalie in this format.

HMs: Many, but of note, the G-Phil's Flyers got 211 points out of players drafted between 149th and 195th overall. The Mackhawks snagged Brendan Gallagher 194th overall and got 28 points out of him. Relatedly, the Powder Rangers drafted Lars Eller in 189th, earning 30 points. The Powder Rangers actually ended up dropping Eller, but it doesn't change the fact that the selection itself was inspired.

Rick DiPietro: 

Worst draft pick.

No competition - Chris Krieder, chosen 6th overall by the Winter Claassics. Krieder earned three points in his 2013 campaign. Hilariously chosen AGAIN by the Claassics at the most recent draft, it is worth pointing out that he has 10 points in 11 games so far.   

HMs: None.

George McPhee:  

Best Free Agent signing.

Jiri Tlusty may be the most added/dropped player in the league, but in 2012, the Patrik Stefans dumped Craig Smith for him, earning 18 points in the process. 

HMs:  Milan Micahleks' Jonathan Blum for Paul Martin (a difference of 13 points).

Glen Sather:  

Worst free agent signing.

There was no one even close - the Vanrooser Canicks used their first FA add/drop to dump Toffoli for Kovalev. Then they used their last FA add/drop to dump Kovalev and add Toffoli. 

HM: Hard not to mention the Powder Rangers, who picked up Damien Brunner (26 points) and dropped Lars Eller (30 points). As noted by the Powder Rangers GM, if he had have dropped Latendresse instead of Eller, he would have won last year. Oops.

Mike Milbury:  

Biggest fleecing.

On February 6, 2013, the Fylanders sent Nikita Nikitin and a 6th round draft pick to the Columbus Blue Jaworskis for Dion Phaneuf and a 9th round pick. Phaneuf, a one-time 60 point defenceman, coming off a 44 point season and scoring at a similar pace at the time, in exchange for Nikita "healthy scratch" Nikitin. The return - a 3 round bump at the draft - is statistically negligible.Welcome to the big leagues, rookie. 

GM of the Year

 

The G-Phil's Flyers. As noted above, Bobrovsky, Boyes, Conacher, Eakin, Brouwer were all late-round steals that produced all season-long. There was no panic moves after a season-ending injury to Karlsson and slow starts with Malkin and Ovechkin, thought the vultures were indeed circling. Though this team probably had the best protected roster to start the season, a combination of very good drafting and patience won the Flyers their first championship. 

HMs: The Powder Rangers exceeded expectations and continued to improve (8th-5th-2nd). Keepers coming into this season included five forwards that we probably all considered borderline keepers (of those guys, Kunitz has proven himself a fantasy powerhouse and Fleischmann and Ryder also made the top six). His Holtby gamble paid off. Wrote an impassioned concession speech.

The Moilers - Showed steady improvement - 10th to 6th to 3rd. Actually made one trade this year, Luongo for Crawford, but otherwise steadfastly sticks by her men. 

The Fylanders continue to get excellent value in trades, and are consistently a threat. The Fylanders GM takes the opposite approach to the league than the Moilers, in that their team rarely looks anything like the team that starts the season.

Transaction (and thoughts about goalie/D-man importance)

November 12, 2013

The Milan Micahleks send Dan "one-point" Girardi + 2014 first round selection

to the Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers for Brian Campbell

Obviously this is a first round draft pick for Campbell. There is no doubt that Campbell has been an excellent fantasy option for many years - even in his injury-shortened "down" season in 2010, his 27 points would have been good to make many scoring rosters. Last year he scored 46 points pro-rated and had 53 the year before. Clearly, the Micahleks, tasting 1st place after a stunning leap from 15th, are going all-in early to win it this year.

However, Campbell is getting older and showed signs of slowing last year. His 9 points in 18 games is actually below his career average, and well off his high water marks. For the WBS Parkers, this is a classic and well-timed rebuild move.

November 9, 2013

The G-Phil's Flyers send Ondrej Pavelec, Brandon Saad, 2014 6th round draft pick + 1 FA add/drop 

to the Patrik Stefans for:Jaroslav Halak + Kris Versteeg

The G-Phil's Flyers need a goalie to replace injured starter Pekka Rinne. 

Rinne is a goalie who, despite playing behind a pretty bad team, manages to be one of the top point-getters in the Keeper League year-to-year. However, with his hip issues, his trade value is at an all-time low. The vultures were circling Rinne's rotting hip, but at the end of the day, the Flyers opted to hold on to him. 

Halak has been off to a hot start, and while he tends to find himself either a) in a tandem situation or b) hurt, he is clearly a better option for the Flyers than Pavelec, at least on a stop-gap basis.

The Stefans, in turn, get a promising young forward in Brandon Saad, and the FA add/drop flexibility to pull a still-legal Fy Gambit depending on how Pavelec/Schneider plays out. Given how good Schneider is going to be moving forward, it was likely that Halak would have faced the chopping block, and Stefan managed to get much better value than goalies traditionally get in the off-season.

Counterpoint to Stefan's Post?  

I think these trades provides a sort-of counterpoint to Stefan's excellent post earlier. Goalies and defencemen may not correlate strongly with championships, but the difference between first and second place in each of our years has been 15, 11, and 9 points (and is currently at 11 points). The average difference between rankings last year was a mere 9.33 points. This is a surprisingly competitive league, and 10 extra points can mean moving up into playoff position, or into the money, or into 1st place.

As Stefan's post indicated, the Micahleks have one of the strongest forward groups in the league thus far, and one of the strongest goalies. The also have one of the weakest defences in the league. A mere 10 extra points from Brian Campbell might mean the difference between 1st and 2nd for that team. 

The same is true of the Flyers who do not feel safe at all at present.

Transactions

A few roster changes yesterday and today (listed with effective dates - as a reminder, your add/drops take effect the next day, not the date the add/drop is made):

10/18/2013 Quebec Rordiques drop Charlie Coyle and add Chris Higgins

10/19/2013 Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers drop Ben Jovejoy and add Marc-Edouard Vlasic

10/19/2013 Patrik Stefans drop Jiri Tlusty and add Mark Arcobello

The Rordiques make their very first free agent add/drop (super adorable, like watching a baby take its first steps), snapping up Chris Higgins. Higgins has looked quite good under Tortorella and is getting quite a bit of ice time in various situations. He isn't going to lead the Rordiques in scoring but should be an upgrade on Charlie Coyle. Reminder: Charlie Coyle is available for pickup notwithstanding his age (born in 1992) because he was dropped from a roster. 

Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers GM, Romany Benham-Parker, has picked up the red-hot Marc-Edouard Vlasic. They have dropped Ben Lovejoy, who with only three syllables all season clearly does not fit into the team's long-term naming scheme. 

The Patrik Stefans have once again dipped into their inscrutable SYSTEM to pull up yet another player no one has ever heard of in Mark Arcobello. Jiri Tlusty (who the Stefans kept from last year) goes to the scrap heap. In fairness, Arcobello has 8 assists in 8 games playing with Eberle and Hall.