Sunday, December 18, 2011

Zajac to the Powder Rangers

December 18, 2011

The Preydators averted a bidding war on Travis Zajac by quickly dealing him to the Powder Rangers for injured Ville Leino and Christian "On pace for 38 without the Sedins" Ehrhoff. The Preydators also threw in defenceman Alex "Blue chip 21 year-old 4th overall pick in 2008 on an up-and-coming team" Pietrangelo.

Analysis:
Read between the lines.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Witless Protection, Part I

You let that guy go? What were you thinking?

Before you read this post, take off your corrective lenses - hindsight is 20/20. Now let’s take a look back at the top five - wait, six - players that should have been kept back in September when we submitted our protected rosters, but instead were cut like Ryan Murphy from the World Junior roster (huge mistake).

To be fair, most of these guys are putting up unprecedented career numbers, and you would have been mercilessly mocked for keeping them. Now you’re getting mercilessly mocked for dropping them, as if you didn’t feel bad enough already for missing out on the points. 

6. Joffrey Lupul - Teeyotes
Lupul had flashes of brilliance in 07-08 with 46 points in 56 games for the Flyers, but he appeared to be trending in the opposite direction. With 34 points this year he has already surpassed the level many projected for him, and sits 3rd overall in scoring. I don’t want to belabour the point because everyone knows it, but still, 3rd overall in scoring! AT let this home team gem slip through the cracks, opting instead for the promise of Patrice Bergeron, who currently has the same amount of points as Marc-Andre Bergeron. To be fair, nobody saw this coming, not even Fy who waited until the 101st pick to select Lupul.

5. Brian Campbell - Moilers
Second among defencemen with 24 points in 31 games, Campbell has been reborn in Florida. But you can’t fault the Moilers for keeping John Carlson and Kris Letang, tenth and first in points per game among defencemen. You could argue she should have him over forward Bryan Little, but even he has 20 points in 30 games. The Dicklas Lidstroms took Campbell in the first round.

4. Dmitry Kulikov - Joshfrey Krupuls
With 20 points in 30 games, Kulikov is good for 7th among defencemen. I’m actually going to pull a quote from JK here, from back in September: “Kulikov may, and I say that strongly, have some upside to his 26 points last year, but it is completely an unknown at this point -- and it is still a long way to go to get into the 38+ that either Pitkanen or Wideman can be expected to grab.” Kulikov is tied with Wideman and beating Pitkanen. Most importantly, the 21 year-old former first round draft pick looks to be a franchise cornerstone for the Patrik Stefans, who somehow stole him in the 7th round, 72nd overall.

 3. Stephen Weiss - Joshfrey Krupuls
Stephen Weiss has 31 points in 31 games. Another Joshfrey Krupuls reject, Weiss was jettisoned after a disappointing 49-point performance last year. However, he had 60 and 61 in the two years prior, and everyone in the world except JK knew Florida was going to be awesome this year and a line of middling players would turn into stars. Regardless, Weiss probably should have been kept over Jordan Staal, who has never cracked 50 points (30 in 42 last year was good, but there were unusual circumstances in Pittsburgh last year with Crosby and Malkin also missing most of the season). The Preydators selected Weiss in the 3rd round this year.

2. Jason Pominville - Teeyotes
Jason Pominville sits just behind Joffrey Lupul with 32 points in 30 games. How good could the Teeyotes be right now?! This is worse than Lupul because it was more foreseeable: the Dicklas Lidstroms eagerly snatched Pominville up in the first round, 7th overall. Pominville is just three years removed from an 80 point season, although his point totals have been shrinking since and I don’t think he will maintain this pace. Still, come on AT.

1. Johan Franzen - Patrik Stefans
The Mule is right on a point per game pace through 29 games. Granted, Franzen has never been a point per game player before, but his last two seasons saw him score 55 and 59 points, so he was a safe bet to at least repeat those numbers. The Mackhawks smartly selected him in the first round this year. What makes SW's choice, in my opinion, the worst, is not Johan the Barbarian’s greatness so much as it is the terribleness of the player SW thought would be better than Franzen: Ville Leino. That is not a typo. Leino has ten points this season. Time to recalibrate the projection machine.

Honourable mention: Kris Versteeg - Preydators
Versteeg is another Florida Panther that continues to shock. With 33 points in 30 games, he is one of about 20 players above a point per game pace this year. The Preydators let Versteeg go, pretending not to know how awesome he was, even fake shit-talking him. Then LP drafted him with the 121st pick. This may be the smartest move in the history of the KL. Hence, Versteeg does not make the list.

Any glaring omissions?

Next post: The top five players that should have been chucked but weren’t, other than Ville Leino and Joni Pitkanen. This is where it gets mean.