Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Top Ten Greatest KL Draft Picks of 2010


It's late enough in the season that we can fairly reflect on our draft-day decisions. Here is my subjective ranking of the top ten draft-day steals. I took into account the fact that goalies were overvalued this year (my bad), so picks had to be compared within their positions (i.e., forwards to other forwards, etc.). I sometimes considered injuries and sometimes considered future potential, but not really. It's more art than science. 
Without further ado... 


10. Martin St. Louis, Victoria Krugars: 1st round, 15th overall
Second in scoring with 91 points - who thought he would outscore Stamkos?

9. Dustin Byfuglien, Teeyotes: 11th round, 156th overall (35th defenceman taken)
Fourth among defencemen in scoring, 52 points.

8. Kris Letang, Moilers: 12th round,169th overall (38th defenceman taken)
Sixth among d-men in scoring, 48 points - without Crosby and Malkin for half the year. More potential than Byfuglien. 

7. Alex Pietrangelo, Preydators: 17th round, 242nd overall (65th defenceman taken)
19th among defencemen in scoring, 41 points and just 21 years old.

6. Claude Giroux, Victoria Krugars: 6th round, 76th overall
Drafted after teammates Carter, Briere and Richards but leads the team with 71 points (12th overall). 

5. James Wisniewski, Fylanders: 15th round, 214th overall (53rd defenceman taken)
8th in defencemen scoring with 47 points.

4. Keith Yandle, Manitoba Roos: 8th round, 107th overall (17th defenceman taken)
Third among defencemen in scoring with 58 points. People used to make fun of Keith Yandle.

3. Lubomir Visnovsky, Victoria Krugars: 8th round, 106th overall (16th defenceman taken)
First among defencemen with 63 points - career best 67 from 05-06 is beatable.
2. Carey Price, Schizzarks: 16th round, 233rd overall (25th goaltender taken)
Yes, 25th goaltender taken. Second to only Henrik Lundqvist in KL points, thanks to eight shutouts.
1. Teemu Selanne, Winter Claassics: 17th round, 253rd overall.
10th in scoring with 75 points, 8th in points per game. Late-round gambles on aging superstars can pay off. If we could do the draft over again, he would go second round. Great pick, DC.
Honourable mention: Rafalski (Schizzarks, 8th round, 4th in d pts per game), Ryan Whitney (Fylanders, 8th round, 3rd in d pts per game), Burns (Claassics, 15th round, 43 pts), D. Sedin (Wittmen, 7th overall, leading scorer), Ribeiro (Dicklas, 7th round, 66 pts), Lundqvist (Dicklas, 8th goalie taken, first in KL points), Tanguay (P-Rangers, 13th round, 59 pts), Couture (P-Rangers, 15th round, 53 pts as rookie), T. Ruutu (Moilers, 18th round, 50 points), Vrbata (Roos, 299th/300, 46 points - but Micah picked for Roos because he had to leave early). 

Any great picks I missed?
Other observations:
1. A lot of defencemen made the list, and I think that reflects my observation that there was more unpredicatability at defence this year than at forward. Forwards, with few exceptions, either did roughly what we expected, or disappointed. The top ten scoring forwards were all drafted in the first three rounds, with the exception of Teemu Selanne. The top ten scoring defencemen were drafted in the 8th, 5th, 8th, 11th, 5th, 4th, 12th, 15th, 6th, and 9th rounds, respectively. 

2. There were two distinct "waves" of goalie pickups. 14 goalies were taken in the first five rounds. Just one was taken in the next five rounds. Nine were taken in rounds 11 to 15, and just three were taken in the last five rounds. This aligns with what we observed during the draft: the majority of GMs took a solid goalie early, with a few choosing to wait... when some GMs started taking their second goalie around round 12, the rest panicked and added their second (or first and second) goalies. Price was the Schizzarks' second goalie pick, after Backstrom in the 13th round.

3. Worst pick candidate:
Nikita Filatov, P-Rangers, 9th round. 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

KL Week in Review: Week 24



The J-Krugars are absolutely running away with it with just two weeks and a day left (regular season ends with four games on April 10).

Krugars' goaltender Ryan Miller earned 16 points last week (three wins, two shutouts), more than the Wittmen's entire team. The Wittmen's poor performance allowed the Schizzarks to sneak into second. The Teeyotes hold down the final winning spot.

The Fylanders came out of nowhere to sneak into fifth place on a whopping 50 point week, including six from Zdeno Chara. The Fylanders have quietly had the best March, after the Krugars. Fourteen points out of fourth, they could certainly challenge for a winning spot.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

KL Week in Review: Week 23


A quick update as four GMs meet in New York to discuss changes to the KL. On the agenda are topics such as rule revisions (especially goalie shutout points) and concussions (especially whether Lia was suffering from one during the inaugural draft).

Incredible! A tie for first place! The Krugars have been unstoppable, earning more points than any other team in March. They are injury-free and Kari Lehtonen has 70 points (20 in March alone), meaning he could actually surpass Ryan Miller (75). Shane Doan paced the Krugars with seven points this week.

Here are the odds of winning the KL inaugural championship, courtesy of vegasinsider.com:

1. Victoria Krugars: 5/1 - "Hands-off" management style paying off.
2. Calgary Wittmen: 7/1 - Will Kesler and Sedin see less ice time now that the Canucks have clinched?
3. Schizzarks: 10/1 - Price is everything. Would trading Parise have put them over the top?
4. Powder Rangers: 16/1 - In-season rebuilding leads to surprising late push.
5. Teeyotes: 18/1 - Finishing outside of top-four would be disastrous, given draft picks traded away.
6. Manitoba Roos: 500/1 - Actually having a better month than five teams.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

KL Week in Review: Week 22


The Wittmen are a deep and healthy team. Yesterday I looked at the projected totals and the Schizzarks were favoured to win by two points. After last night's incredible 15 points without so much as a goalie win, the Wittmen are the favourites. Daniel Sedin is on pace for an NHL-best 104 points.

Although the Schizzarks and Krugars have better points-per-game (.78 and .77 respectively), the Wittmen have been incredibly lucky with injuries, with their scoring roster having played more games than any other team, and in some cases, almost a hundred more games.

Elsewhere in the league, the Powder Rangers won their battle with the Mackhawks for fifth place and have set their sights on fourth. The Teeyotes had a terrible week. Tim Thomas has not lived up to expectations post-trade (he has two more points than still-concussed Jonas Hiller would have had since the trade), and the defencemen combined for three points this week.

Finally, the Micaleks have successfully nose-dived to 12, where they hope to stay in order to get the fourth overall pick. As their GM once remarked, "if you're not top four, you want to be in Roos' spot."

Sunday, March 6, 2011

KL Week in Review: Week 21 (I think)



Just checked the standings this morning and was pleased to see the race is back on. The Teeyotes, Schizzarks and Krugars are closing the gap on the Wittmen. All had solid 30+ point weeks. The Powder Rangers had the best week, with 39. You can't count them out yet. I spoke with their GM and he said he would be very happy with a top four finish in a year he was previously calling a rebuilding year. Of course, fifth place is the worst spot to finish: no money, and the worst draft position out of the non-money teams.

The Schizzarks didn't get the offer they were hoping for for injured Zach Parise, and decided to keep him for next year. (Rumor has it the Claassics were offering Marleau for Parise and a pick.) Probably a smart move, although if it ends up being the difference between first and second place, that's $150.

Wittmen have 97 points from their top goalie slot. Schizzarks also have 97. Teeyotes have 79. Krugars have 71. Mackhaws 86. Rangers 84. Goalies are the top point producers on most, but not all teams.