Halfway Correlations

We are nearing the halfway point of the season. With 6.5 seasons under our belts, we have a pretty good data set of past results to work with, so I thought it would be interesting to compare the halfway point results of previous years with the final results to see what, if any correlation existed.

My gut told me that the halfway point is likely a good indicator of final results. The effect of hot and cold players tend to have leveled out, and most teams have experienced the effects of injuries. That, compounded with the diminishing effect of trades or add/drops and impending trade deadline, means what we have at this stage tends to be close to what we are stuck with. Or so I believed -- so I decided to do an analysis.

To do this, I took the ranking of our teams at the approximate half-way point of each of the past seasons (generally speaking, the 1st week of January, with the exception of the lockout-shortened season, which I used March 10, 2012). I then compared the final season rankings.

With two data sets, we are able to do a statistical analysis to determine the coefficient of correlation, or r value. The r value is a number which indicates the strength and direction of correlation, on a scale from -1.0 to +1.0. The following scale helps interpret the results.

• Exactly –1. A perfect negative relationship (in other words, the rankings are perfectly reversed)
• –0.70. A strong negative relationship
• –0.50. A moderate negative relationship
• –0.30. A weak negative relationship
• 0. No linear relationship (in other words, the ranking at the end of the season is effectively randomized in comparison to the half-way point). 
• +0.30. A weak positive relationship
• +0.50. A moderate positive relationship
• +0.70. A strong positive relationship
• Exactly +1. A perfect relationship (in other words, the ranking is identical at the halfway point to the end of the year). 

Overall Results
This is the tl;dr section. Over the entirety of the Keeper League, the r value between the halfway ranking and our final positions is 0.862, indicating a very strong positive relationship. It is even stronger if we exclude our first season (and I would argue that may be appropriate, since it was in effect a single-season league without the moderating effect of keepers). The r excluding that season is 0.892.

Of the 94 total results, 75 teams have moved down 1 or 2 positions, stayed the same, or moved up 1 or 2 positions. There are, of course, outliers. But they are rare. Of the 94 sets of data, teams moved up three or more positions only nine times in the history of the league. Similarly, teams have only moved down three or more positions 10 times.

In other words, the vast majority (80%) of teams finish very close (within 2 positions) of their position at the halfway point. The distribution is a normal bell curve, with many of these teams not changing position at all.

Season-By-Season Overview

2010-11

Overall r value of 0.662.

I suspected that the effect of tanking might have a stabilizing effect (ie - the decision to tank would be made earlier in the season, plus tanking is easier than picking up new points). So I did an analysis of the top 8 finishers as well, returning an r of 0.402.

This season featured the two biggest jumps in league history, with the then-Victoria Krugars moving from 8th to 1st place over the course of the season. The Milan Micahleks entered the second half of the season in 1st place, but collapsed to 10th.

Those two jumps resulted in this first season being our weakest in terms of correlation, but excluding those two remarkable outliers, the r value becomes very close to 1.00.

2011-12

Overall r value of 0.816
Top 8 r value of 0.651

Again, strong correlation amongst all players, with a slightly weaker (but still strong) correlation amongst the top 8. The biggest contributor to the top 8 weaker correlation was the Moilers, who moved from 11th to 6th place.

2012-13

Overall r value of 0.948
Top 8 r value of 0.845

Our most consistent season ever, with not a single team moving more more than 2 positions. Keep in mind that it was a lockout shortened season, so there were 24-ish games to move position, rather than 41.

2013-14

Overall r value of 0.918
Top 8 r value of 0.807

Another remarkably consistent season. Only the Mackhawks (+4), Los Amjawors Kings (-4) and Quebec Rordiques (-3) moved three or more positions - the rest of us moved very little. Of note, the top 3 at the halfway point were the top 3 at the end of the season. If the Mackhawks would have stayed in 8th place, the top 8 would have finished exactly where they were at the halfway point.

2014-15

Overall r value of 0.918
Top 8 r value of 0.661

Interestingly, the r value of this season was identical to the season before. That's a remarkable coincidence, but also highlights how consistent the data-sets are.

2015-16

Overall r value of 0.864
Top 8 r value of 0.412

If there's to be any hope for those outside a money or playoff position, this season is it. Overall, the correlation remains strong, but in the top 8, the Los Amjawors Kings dropped from 3rd to 6th and the Fylanders leapt from 9th to 3rd (the second greatest increase in KL history).

This season also featured the greatest number of teams moving 3 or more positions, with five (as detailed below, only teams have moved up or down three or more positions only 19 times since inception).

That said, like most years, the majority of GMs finished within 2 positions of their mid-season markers.

Other Observations

While movement up and down anywhere in the ranking is important for draft position, some moves are more important than others. In particular, moves from out of a playoff spot to a playoff spot, or movement into a money position. 

Unfortunately, the news here is not terribly good either. 

Only 6 teams have ever moved into a money spot from a position outside at the halfway point (out of a total 24 top 4 finishes):

• 2015-16 Fylanders (9th to 3rd)
• 2014-15 Patrik Stefans (5th to 2nd)
• 2013-14 Mackhawks (8th to 4th)
• 2012-13 Moilers (5th to 3rd)
• 2010-11 Joshfrey Krupuls (8th to 1st)
• 2010-11 Patrik Stefans (5th to 4th)

You will note that four of these moves are of three or more positions, which, as we've noted, has only ever happened nine times. Two of them (Fylanders, with 6 positions, and the Krupuls, with 7 positions) are the two biggest jumps in the history of the league. To put it bluntly, if you are outside the money at the halfway point, history suggests that you will need a truly exceptional second half to break in. 

The story is similar for moves into the playoff position. Since the introduction of the playoff format, we have had 32 GMs finish in the top 8.  Of those, only four of them found their way into playoff contention over the last 41 games:

• 2015-16 Fylanders (9th to 3rd)
• 2014-15 Winter Claassics (10th to 8th)
• 2013-14 Joshfrey Krupuls (9th to 8th)
• 2012-13 Mackhawks (10th to 7th)

GM Consistency

Not all GMs are created equal. Many of our GMs are remarkably consistent in terms of the correlation between mid- and end-points of the season. Leading the pack are the Schizzarks, with an individual r of 0.983. The Patrik Stefans are right behind at 0.982. These are shockingly consistent numbers -- recall that 1.00 is perfect correlation.  

Other GMs with r values of greater than 0.9 are the G-Phil's Flyers, Los Amjawors Kings, Teeyotes, Powder Rangers, Vanrooser Canicks, Moilers and the Quebec Rordiques. 

If you are looking at the present standings and want to make bets on final ranking, these teams may be your safest picks -- the GMs who have shown the greatest level of consistency across the final 41 games. This cuts both ways -- if these GMs need to move up a few positions, past performance suggests that isn't likely to happen without a serious deviation from past behaviour.

At the other end of the scale are the Milan Micahleks (0.044) and the Fylanders (-0.252). 

The Micahleks are actually remarkably consistent when you ignore their disastrous first season collapse (losing 10 positions). Other than that, they have finished within 2 positions of mid-season in each of the last 5 seasons, for an r value of over 0.9. 

The Fylanders, on the other hand, are the only team with a negative correlation. In other words, they are rarely in the same position between the two poles. 

That is perhaps unsurprising, given the sheer number of trades the Fylanders make over the course of the season. However, last year was the only year in which the Fylanders finished ahead of their mid-season ranking, In most other years they have mostly lost ground. 

The Patrik Stefans also tend to be extremely active on the trade market, but are the second most consistent team in the league, Interestingly, they have only ever lost position once, and it was only by 1 spot. The Stefans have either moved up or stayed the same in every other season. 

The comparison is interesting, as it may give some insight into trading behaviour. The Fylanders perhaps make trades with greater upside (the 6 position jump) but strike out more often, while the Patrick Stefans may play it a little safer with their trades in exchange for more modest (but more predictably positive) bumps in position. 

Conclusion:

A lot can happen between now and the end of the season, but if you are a betting person, it is very likely that the top 8 you are looking at today will contain most of the same GMs at the end of the season. Generally speaking we only lose 1 team out of the top 8 by year's end, and it is typically two bubble teams swapping position. 

Four of the most consistent teams in the league sit in the top 4, and 6 of the top 8 have r values of > 0.9. With 80% of ranking moves being of 2 or less positions, you are likely looking at most of the names you will see at the end of the year, and in more or less the order they will appear. 

There will likely be one or two outliers who move three or more positions up or down, but more significant move (ie - Fy's 6 positions last year, or JKru's 7 positions in the first year) are very, very rare.

Perhaps the most useful part of this exercise is we can determine at the halfway point who should be a buyer, who should be a seller. We don't need to wait for the trade deadline to determine that. 

Pre-Draft Power Rankings

These rankings simply add my secret source's projections for each team's goalie, top six forwards and top two defencemen. This is the lowest common denominator across all teams, except the Nickrooshkins, who did not keep a goalie - so for them I used the average projection for the top three goalies available in the draft. These totals do not account for prospects, unless you kept a prospect projected to fare better than your 6th forward or 2nd defenceman. 

If you don't like where you rank on this list, keep in mind that last year, after the draft, the Commissioner tallied projections from Cullen, Dobber and LWL and ranked the eventual champion Milan Micahleks 5th, and runner-up Moilers 13th. Coming before the draft, these rankings are no doubt even less accurate as predictors of the final standings, but they may paint a picture - if impressionist - of where each team sits heading into the draft. 

*note the chart starts at 250 to afford us a closer view. Forwards obviously account for much more than this graph suggests at first glance.

Rankings

Strictly mathematical rankings can boring, so here are mine, based largely on the projections above but also factoring in historical success, draft position, squad goals, compete level, my biases, and your biases. These rankings are for this season only.

1. Los Amjawors Kings - 608 

The Burns acquisition puts the Kings in the throne. Anything less than seven consecutive championships from here on would be an unmitigated disaster.

2. G-Phil's Flyers - 593

The scary things is I think the projections for many players on this team are low. Surely one of Saad or Domi or Eberle will hit 60 - if so, watch out.

3. Joshfrey Krupuls - 556

Has five projected 60-point scorers; he'll need at least two to hit 70 to compete. Prospects Fabbri and Theodore should contribute immediately, so he gets bumped up the rankings. 

4. Milan Micahleks - 567

Flawlessly constructed and appallingly underrated, even by me. Giroux gets 90 again. 

5. Patrik Stefans - 557

Smart off-season moves and great draft position make him a threat... to fuck up the draft in spectacular fashion. Gaudreau, if he signs, wins the Art Ross.

6. Powder Rangers - 547

Building on momentum from an excellent draft last year, but as usual roster replete with players only good because of projected linemates.

7. Valeri Nickrooshkins - 540

Solid young team. Drafting or trading for a top goalie is the final piece needed to get this team into the post-season. Needs to avoid Russians.

8. Winter Claassics - 539

Subban, Crawford and five 60-point forwards apparently only gets you so far. Needs Jets Wheeler and Scheifele to take off.

9. Teeyotes / Moilers (tie) - 533

Refusal to meaningfully engage with league not an impediment to popularity or success.

11. Dicklas Lidstroms - 545

Boring and not very good team. I felt the projection was too generous. Should consider rebuild.

12. Fylanders - 514

Is this the year the Fylanders finish outside the top five? Kept four players projected below 50 points. Has no prospects.

13. Quebec Rordiques - 502

There is hope for the future with Barkov, Marner, and others, so long as they are not called up to the Fylanders.

14. Shizzarks - 503

A team in transition, but the future looks bright - the Schizzarks already own the NHL's all-time leader in points-per-game.

15. Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers - 480

This team has to get some lottery luck sometime. GM has smartly refused my annual offers for MacKinnon and finally has some decent prospects in the pipeline.

16. Mackhawks - 462

Not the worst, just the youngest. This GM has a plan and it involves his name on the trophy as soon as McDavid retires.

2016 Draft Lottery Odds

In less than two weeks, we will gather to kick off what is unbelievably the KL's 7th trip around the sun. Ain't it good to be alive. This will be the second year that a weighted lottery will be held to determine the first 3 overall picks of our draft, and although we know how the relative weights are assigned to each of the non-playoff teams, I was curious what the actual probabilities are for each team to pick in each spot. The calculations were a bit more complicated than I first imagined but below are the results:

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th
Schizzarks	39.080%	28.410%	18.079%	14.430%
Mackhawks	24.138%	25.352%	22.108%	25.932%	2.470%
WBS Parkers	14.943%	17.824%	20.996%	33.888%	11.931%	0.419%
Milan Micahleks	9.195%	11.653%	15.287%	25.749%	33.817%	4.237%	0.062%
Valeri Nichushkins	5.747%	7.514%	10.344%		51.783%	23.408%	1.198%	0.006%
Quebec Rordiques	3.448%	4.596%	6.500%			71.936%	13.296%	0.224%
Teeyotes	2.299%	3.092%	4.427%				85.445%	4.738%
Joshfrey Krupuls	1.149%	1.560%	2.259%					95.032%

Most of you will recall the devastation that befell the Parkers' GM at last year's lottery; he came in with the second best chance of drafting Connor McDavid, but ended up with Dylan Strome at 4th overall. This seemed like an incredibly unlikely result at the time, but leaving aside the improbable outcome of the Kings nabbing Con', you can see from the table above that the chance of Rome falling to 4th last year (refer to Mackhawks' odds this year) was slightly greater than the chances he would finish anywhere else.

I would have liked to have calculated and published these probabilities prior to the keeper deadlines to have encouraged some of the more gambling-prone -minded GMs to attempt to trade up. That possibility still exists between now and the draft, however, if any of you want to engage.

Unfortunately, you will also notice that despite missing the post-season last year, the Patrik Stefans are nowhere to be seen in this lottery odds table. That's because their GM and yours truly succumbed to his vices and rolled the dice on a trade with the Milan Micahleks that saw him acquire Tuukka Rask, Patrick Sharp, and a small pick upgrade later on, but give up the 4th lottery spot without knowing exactly how likely it would be to move up, down, or stay at 4th. The table above reveals a cumulative probability of approximately 36% that the Micahleks will snatch one of Matthews, Laine, or Puljujarvi if they so wish, all touted as franchise players. While I may pretend to celebrate a small victory here, noting that the most likely outcome is for the Micahleks to fall in the order (~38%), he is all but assured a stud in any one of Shane Gostisbehere, Tyler Johnson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, or even Matt Murray.

There are other names I could have thrown up there that I am keeping closer to my chest. And maybe the ones mentioned serve as misdirection. What does seem evident is that this is looking like one of the deepest KL first rounds I can recall. But as always, the task for the GMs that finish picking outside those really coveted spots of the top 2, 3, 4 (or however you see it) will be to avoid the Valtteri Filppulas and Cody Hodgsons of the world.

Where there is potential for some action on the trading block is where there are significant differences in how GMs might value the top x number of draft picks this year, and use the table above to his or her Moira's advantage. Go nuts, guys. See you all on the 10th. 

16 Thoughts - Wrapping up the KL Trade Deadline

Compared to deadlines past, the 2016 trade deadline felt quiet. The Commissioner would never admit it, but the league has to be concerned that the two teams at the top of the standings are run by more risk-averse, quieter GMs. If last year's Commssioner-vs-Deputy showdown felt like a Bruins-Blackhawks rivalry, this year's apparent Moilers-Micahleks matchup is more like a Flames-Senators Stanley Cup Final. Regardless, it seems likely we'll see a new name engraved on the cup, which is exciting.

1. One of those new names could be the Fylanders, a team that was uncharacteristically quiet at the deadline. The Fylanders' GM said he wasn't willing to part with an injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for immediate help because his team's chances of winning are slim - "three percent." He also said he believes his team can triumph this year without any reinforcements. It takes a brilliant mind to simultaneously entertain two ideas so apparently contradictory.

2. A lot of speculation the Los Amjawors Kings would move Jonathan Drouin for immediate help (for the record, they deny it was ever considered and insist they are bound by Yzerman law). Instead, they went after the Teeyote's add/drop, offering an 8th-round pick.  The Teeyotes held out for something more, didn't get it, and the add/drop went to waste. The Kings' scoring roster, meanwhile, features Bryan Little, shut-down for the season, and Mike Cammalleri, also out long-term. A number of executives polled felt the Kings blew a good chance at finishing in the money this year by not being more active.

3. On the topic of add/drops, or as I efficiently call them, "swaps," the Teeyotes were one of three teams that let a swap perish unused. The Patrik Stefans set a new record by using five, so there's the counter-argument to the GM who says we need more swaps. (Though if our records are accurate, last year all 32 available swaps were used.)

4. One team that many execs thought would be a great trading partner for the Los Amjawors Kings is the Valeri Nickrooshkins. While I don't know if they engaged in serious discussions, I do know the Nickrooshkins were actively trying to move Kyle Palmieri and Frans Nielsen for draft picks, but couldn't get a buyer.  If the Nickrooshkins were attempting the equivalent of what the Maple Leafs did by stocking up with moderately useful veterans and trading them for draft picks at the deadline, it doesn't appear that such a strategy translates to the KL. The one exception to this (and to everything) is, of course, Jaromir Jagr.

5. A number of GMs expressed surprise that the Powder Rangers, currently in 7th place and never shy about trading, didn't make a big splash. The GM told me he didn't get a lot of offers and he felt his team was correctly perceived as "neither good enough to make a push nor bad enough to help someone else make a push." Team favourite Sergei Plotnikov asked for a trade but was deemed too valuable looking after teammates' children in the press box during games.

6. The GM of the Schizzarks spent the weekend ripping up hardwood floors and complaining about his old man back. The Schizzarks swapped out Jason "too productive" Spezza in the interest of tanking, but the GM tells me he's not convinced a rebuild is the right direction to take the team. Another GM who spoke on condition of anonymity (not quoted elsewhere in this blog) told me he thinks that had the Schizzarks been honest with themselves, they would have started looking to the future not long after Carey Price was injured and moved some depreciating assets for younger players and picks. When asked for examples of GMs doing a one-year rebuild right, this GM gave three names: The Patrik Stefans of 2013-14, the Moilers of 2014-15, and the Mackhawks of this year.

7. The GM of the Mackhawks picked up the phone to verbally negotiate with the Milan Micahleks, leading another executive to label him the Lou Lamoriello of the Keeper League. Say what you will about the GM's old-school tactics - he made the biggest deal of the deadline. And he used a rotary phone to do it.

8. The Micahleks, for their part, were enthralled with Dylan Larkin, but his ice time had been declining over the last two weeks. Having traded away a first to obtain Claude Giroux, the opportunity to get back into the first round while adding a reliable, if less flashy, teammate in Wayne Simmonds was too good to pass up.

9. Word is the Moilers and Micahleks wanted defensive help. Both GMs kicked the tires on Brent Burns and Kris Letang, but felt the prices were too high. The Moilers got their second choice in Muzzin, but the Micahleks, who arguably needed help more, failed to improve on a bottom two of Jason Demers (update: out for possibly the season) and Andrei Markov. By the way, Burns' shot total this season is second only to Alex Ovechkin, and he's taken 36% more shots than the next best defenceman, Erik Karlsson.

10. The Patrik Stefans ended up making just the one deal - selling Muzzin, and a number of intra-roster tank swaps. Asked about failed negotiations, the team's GM was steadfast in adopting the Brian Burke approach: "For the future of the Patrik Tefans, I can't have other GMs thinking this organization is going to accept garbage offers." One anonymous GM observed that the Patrik Stefans’ reluctance to recognize a failed season until too late had burned him in the past. Would teams have paid higher prices earlier in the season?

11. If anyone asked about Patrick Kane, I wonder what the answer would have been. There was much speculation on Twitter that the Dicklas Lidstroms' GM is bored, having won twice and being in contention again with little effort. After the deadline he told me he considered making a move but felt a middle-of-the-pack finish was a fait accompli, and also the Sens suck this year so why even bother.

12. Assuming the Claassics had done nothing to address their injuries this season on the trade market, they would sit exactly 100 points back of where they are now. They were reluctant, however, to do anything on deadline day, and that was perhaps because of the net minus-8 points they've earned from some other tinkering - namely, a Spooner/Stempniak swap. Fittingly, Stempniak joined the Boston Bruins at the deadline, and Claude Julien threw the Claassics a bone by bumping him ahead of Spooner in the lineup.

13. The Rordiques were silent from all accounts over the weekend. What seemed like a tremendous bid for a playoff berth looks more likely to come up dry, with a fate sealed by a backfiring final swapping out of the face of the franchise, ROR-Y (Ryan O'Reilly, why?!).

14. The GM of G-Phil's Flyers confided that he came up short in a bidding war over Jake Muzzin (this is what it's come to?). The team that once boasted the best defence corp in the league has fallen a long way.  One executive, asked about Greg standing pat at the deadline, remarked "it is pure paralysis by analysis hidden behind feigned hubris."

15. At the outset of the season the Joshfrey Krupuls announced they anticipated a step back. They've stockpiled 2016 picks, having two firsts and two thirds (note the Patrik Stefans have nine picks in the first four rounds). The Radulov acquisition was interesting and makes me wonder what they know that we don't. He seems to be slowing, but he's still putting up very good numbers in the KHL.

16. The GM of the Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers are in trial prep. One GM reached out at the deadline only to hear back hours after the siren sounded with a text that read, "my terrible team remains terrible." The frankness of that text sums up the sorry state of this franchise that has to catch a lottery break one of these years. It's the tried and true rebuild formula no team knows better than the Parkers' expansion cousin.

Leaps of Faith, and a bunch of other random tables

In what is my final blogpost as Commissioner, I provide a few considerations to chew on with our trade deadline less than a week away. All of them are motivated by the question that I keep asking myself with respect to the direction I decided to take my team this season: what the hell have I done?!

We're 60 days into 2016, and I thought it would be insightful to first look at which NHLers are performing the best in the calendar year. As a testament to this season's unpredictability, look who finds himself at the top:

PLAYER	KL Team	Pts	What the?
Joe Thornton, C	Fylanders/Claassics	31	???
Evgeny Kuznetsov, C	Moilers	31	?
Sidney Crosby, C	Kings	29
Patrick Kane, RW	Lidstroms	29
Ryan Getzlaf, C	Micahleks	28
Kris Letang, D	Stefans	27
Erik Karlsson, D	Flyers	26
Anze Kopitar, C	Krupuls	25
Alex Ovechkin, LW	Stefans	24
Jordan Eberle, RW	Flyers	24
Brayden Schenn, C	Rordiques	24	??
Jordan Staal, C	Fylanders	24	???
Jakub Voracek, LW	Nickrooshkins	24
Nicklas Backstrom, C	Fylanders	24
Johnny Gaudreau, LW	Stefans	23
Steven Stamkos, C	Rangers	23
Artemi Panarin, LW	Rangers	23
Brad Marchand, LW	Micahleks	22	?
John Tavares, C	Teeyotes	22
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D	Moilers	22
Filip Forsberg, C	Moilers	21
Benoit Pouliot, LW	Stefans	21	??
Wayne Simmonds, RW	Mackhawks	21
Corey Perry, RW	Lidstroms	21
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D	FA/Rangers	21	???
Andre Burakovsky, LW	Rangers	21
Pavel Datsyuk, C	Claassics	21
Claude Giroux, C	Micahleks	21
Ryan Kesler, C	Stefans/Rordiques	21
P.K. Subban, D	Claassics	21
T.J. Brodie, D	Lidstroms	20
Jussi Jokinen, LW	Kings	20	?
Shayne Gostisbehere, D	RFA	20	???
Blake Wheeler, RW	Claassics	20
Jonathan Toews, C	Rordiques	20
Joe Pavelski, C	Fylanders	20
Nikita Kucherov, RW	Micahleks	20
Logan Couture, C	Stefans	19
Jaromir Jagr, RW	Rangers/Moilers	19
Shane Doan, RW	FA	19	??
Kyle Okposo, RW	Krupuls	19
Justin Williams, RW	Teeyotes	19
Tyson Barrie, D	Krupuls	19
Brandon Dubinsky, C	Kings	19	?
Patric Hornqvist, RW	Rangers	19

After a quick scan of the list, it comes as little surprise that the Fylanders, Stefans, and Rangers have had the strongest past two months in the KL. And it comes as tragic fate that the Stefans declared their playoff aspirations early in the new year, but the teams holding down the 8th and 9th spots at the time were precisely the Fylanders and Rangers. It is all the more tragic that the Stefans' GM still believes he has a viable chance at the post-season.

Fylanders	245
Patrik Stefans	243
Powder Rangers	241
Moilers	234
Milan Micahleks	232
G-Phil's Flyers	227
Dicklas Lidstroms	222
Teeyotes	222
Los Amjawors Kings	219
Winter Claassics	216
Joshfrey Krupuls	214
Quebec Rordiques	203
Valeri Nickrooshkins	197
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers	191
Mackhawks	181
Schizzarks	147

What's remarkable to me is just how much some teams have battled back into being in the thick of things (not mine), while others that looked to be sure playoff locks, and money contenders even, are falling with acceleration. I haven't run any historical numbers, and I'm not going to, but it seems to me that by the end of December, gaps between our league's best and worse teams only widen, outside of perhaps one or two exceptions. This season appears to be a bit different.

Continuing to be driven by my own self-loathing, I thought to ask a question I asked near the end of last season (you may recall a video blog post): what if the KL didn't allow trades or any other acquisitions? I compiled the rosters as they were post-draft and ran the numbers last Friday as if this league were truly as "set it and forget it" format. I found sooommmmme comfort seeing the two-way battle at the top of that universe. 

Moilers	590
Milan Micahleks	585
Dicklas Lidstroms	562
G-Phil's Flyers	562
Powder Rangers	555
Patrik Stefans	553
Fylanders	551
Los Amjawors Kings	546
Quebec Rordiques	533
Joshfrey Krupuls	532
Teeyotes	520
Mackhawks	502
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers	498
Winter Claassics	481
Valeri Nickrooshkins	475
Schizzarks	418

It is worth noting that the "would be" totals for the Flyers and the Lidstroms are exactly what they are in our present day reality. If only they had found some moxie... it's not too late, guys!

In the process of calculating the numbers above, I had to combine subrosters of keepers, draftees, and prospects, so just for fun, I provide you with the totals, listed by keeper strength:

Team	Keepers	Draftees	Prospects	Total
Dicklas Lidstroms	467	200	22	689
Fylanders	459	201	16	676
Milan Micahleks	442	273	0	715
G-Phil's Flyers	430	215	41	686
Patrik Stefans	413	249	27	689
Moilers	412	365	4	781
Quebec Rordiques	395	253	62	710
Joshfrey Krupuls	391	151	15	557
Teeyotes	391	229	42	662
Los Amjawors Kings	383	261	28	672
Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers	362	185	68	615
Mackhawks	355	161	51	567
Winter Claassics	341	228	51	620
Powder Rangers	323	342	58	723
Valeri Nickrooshkins	316	276	23	615
Schizzarks	313	171	8	492

Granted, their draft numbers are a bit skewed by both needing two goalies, but the Moilers and Rangers absolutely dominated us on October 4th, and it wasn't even close. The Moilers' draft is outperforming SIX keeper rosters, while hilariously, the Rangers' draftees have outperformed HIS OWN keepers.

One final observation I make is the contributions from prospects. Neither of our two front-runners have gotten anything out of their protected two in Pouliot and Nylander (though I guess he fetched some trade value, which could ultimately prove to be the difference). But more to the point, I really don't think we have the system right yet. The numbers above appear to belie the presumption of any advantage in carrying protected players into the draft with the hope that they "break-out" at precisely the right time and meaningfully contribute to a KL championship.  

And with all of that not-so-helpful information, do as you may to eff things up for yourself in the week ahead!