Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Trade to Announce (DOMINOS!!!!?!??)

The trade deadline is looming, and we have our first post-Olympic deal. 

Feb-26-2014
The Teeyotes send injured Henrik Zetterberg to the Joshfrey Krupuls for Paul Stastny

Both GMs provided me with their analysis of the trade, but in order to keep Teehan's interest I'm going to copy and paste his tl;dr version:
Zetterberg no play hockey. Stastny play hockey good.
Not much else to say. The Teehans are going for a money spot and the cost to do that was Stastny. The Joshfrey Krupuls made the decision to double-down of their previous Lupul trade to build towards future years. 

Long term a young Stastny > a declining Zetterberg, but it is hard to call a winner in this since the teams motivations are different. 

Stay tuned to this blog over the next while as teams begin to declare themselves buyers and sellers. Time is ticking. 

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Trade: Two Elite Defencemen Switch Teams


With the Commissioner on in trial, I have the privilege of announcing and breaking down a big trade that happened back on February 7th. 

To the Moilers: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mark Arcobello and Dmitri Orlov.
To the Patrik Stefans: Kris Letang, Tie Max Domi, Alex Edler and the Moilers' 2014 7th round pick.

ANALYSIS

The Moilers are currently 26 points out of a playoff spot. When the Moilers' medical staff revealed that Letang had a hole in his heart, caused by years of neglect from his own GM, the writing was on the wall. The very next day, Letang was gone. 

Having had time to digest this trade, I am firmly of the view that the Moilers will never regret the move. Letang, widely considered "second only to Erik Karlsson" in fantasy metrics, has reached 50 points only once in his career. He did score 38 in 35 last season, but that included 33 assists, so you have to wonder how much of his success is a byproduct of playing for the high-scoring Penguins. Guys like Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski come to mind as blueliners who have had trouble replicating Pittsburgh numbers outside of Pittsburgh and have haunted GMs in this league. Staying healthy has also been a problem for the 'Tang, and the recent stroke doesn't bode well for his future health. 

On his way to the Moilers is Oliver Ekman-Larsson, a coveted 22-year-old rearguard whose points-per-game has improved in each of his four NHL seasons (although his current 42-point pace suggests he may have reached a plateau). He'll likely never put up point-per-game numbers the way Letang is capable of (although you have to wonder if he could on a team like the Penguins), but he's a top-tier keeper in any event. Asked about OEL, the Moilers' GM was unable to comment, but stated that she was "sick of Letang and his shenanigans." Asked whether her team would make the playoffs, the always-frank GM responded, "probably not."

To balance the trade, the Patrik Stefans receive a reclamation project in Alex Edler and a prospect in Max Domi. Edler is certainly a viable keeper defenceman in the right situation, so the Stefans are hoping for a trade or some kind of miraculous turnaround in Vancouver. Eighteen-year-old Domi is leading his London Knights in scoring and is, in my opinion, an underrated prospect at "7.5 C." The "risk" in his projection is that he is 5'9", but I hardly consider it a risk given 5'9" is the ideal height for a man.  

Orlov and Arcobello are dead weight. Asked whether this was essentially a three-for-one trade, the GM of the Patrik Stefans replied, "Mark Archipelago was an expendable rock among the chain of islands that is my offence. And the Moilers' GM said she'd do anything f'Orlov." So, yes. 

Conclusion: Led by a compulsive gambler GM, the Patrick Stefans are absorbing all of the risk in this deal. If everything breaks their way, it's a huge payout. If not, the Moilers may have just committed grand Larssony. 


Wednesday, February 12, 2014

#PS4 - It's All About The Rings

In this fourth chapter of Hardly a Stat Holiday, I provide no insight whatsoever, but instead attempt to engage you in a purely frivolous analysis on the eve of Team Canada's first game in Sochi.  I’ve calculated each team’s total points earned in the Olympic Games over the course of their players’ entire careers.

To give some indication of what little can be taken from this in terms of KL success, KL points this season are almost “perfectly uncorrelated” with career Olympic points; the coefficient of variation is 0.0028.  In addition to listing players who have made it to the most prestigious international stage, I’ve included players who earned a trip to Sochi, whether they are in fact lacing them up or not. These are highlighted and totalled parenthetically to give at least some basis for keeper league pride and shame.  Belated, prelated, and unfeted Happy Family Day to all. Let’s get to it.





The Mackhawks GM is soon to become the president of my blog column fan club.  For the second straight piece, they find themselves atop the rankings, with an Olympic total of 83 points.  A lot of their KL success can be attributed to the aging vets still getting it done, and their invitation to Sochi once again confirms this. 






An all-time 78 point showing by the Shizzarks has got to make their GM feel a bit better at this juncture of the season.  I mean… it’s really all Teemu though, who alone has more Olympic points (37) than the entire rosters for nine GMs in our league.  Oh, and here’s a fun trivia question: who has the most career NHL points among active players never having played in the Olympics?  Can you guess who’s second?  What about third?  Hint: THEY ARE ALL ON THE SCHIZZARKS.  I feel this says something, though I don’t know what.  (NB: I’ve included Spezza because he actually went to Turin with the team, but never suited up). 








Given their namesake, the Dicklas Lidstroms have appropriately put up a strong Olympic showing.  This year, however, the Sochi dream has been marred by injury for two prominent forwards, Gaborik and M. Koivu.  Fitting too, that Sami Salo is kind of the injured ice hockey player poster child.









Just when I thought I was good at creating blog posts that avoided all G-Phil accolades, ugh… twelve Olympians going to Sochi this year.  FIVE defenders.  And he already put up 4 more points in the first game this morning.









I see a lot of Czechs and Canucks on the Moilers, who would all probably fair better playing for Canada… something something Petr Nedved.






The Powder Rangers boast the most Olympians if you include the ones bound for Sochi—and those that would have been but for broken tibias.  Fourteen is an impressive lot from this ethnically diverse squad, but aside from Jagr, they haven’t realy done much historically.  Lookout though, Juicy says he’s playing the best hockey of his life.









You can add six more to the Winter Claassics’ Winter Games total with Hiller’s shutout this morning and the ever talkative "Gabby" Landeskog’s helper.  The only other thing I’ll say is I wish Marleau had taken the Saku “I’m not good enough anymore so I’ll take myself out of the running” Koivu approach to these 2014 games.  Hope I’m wrong.  The Claassics have also interestingly dropped or traded 4 current Olympians in Erat, Gionta, Eriksson, and Olli Jokinen.






The Fylanders are really the Austrian Islanders, which has its humour bound by the fact that Austria is entirely landlocked.  Fy should have dropped Brunner for Raffl long ago to really complete the triumvirate.  Or convinced Brunner to play for Austria.  No-one would have questioned it.








Evgeni “now back-up” Nabokov keeps the Los Samjawors Kings’ Olympic total respectable. Aptly, it’s pretty much all on Sid’s shoulders otherwise, because Denmark, Belarus, and Germany are not playing in Sochi.





The Rordiques are characterized by a bunch of disappointed Bonhommes in Ryan, Malone (that’s two separate snowmen), and Mike Richards. Players like Del Zotto and Grigorenko also went from having outside chances of playing in Sochi to having developmental meltdowns.





This is just so pathetic looking. The Patrik Stefans' Olympic showing is led by two players that should enter into an early retirement pact. And I’m embarrassed for the USA that Eric Cole ever played for them. Of course, the biggest travesty of all is that Anton Khudobin did not get the call to Sochi.  Lastly, and a spoiler alert, just when you think I might have reason to smile by OEL’s performance today, I traded him for a stroke victim... details to come from the Commish.





The W-Benham/Scranton Parkers remember a better time when host cities bore double-barrelled names such as Garmische-Partenkirchen.  Up and down, this KL roster has a bunch of mediocre Europeans, including impostors Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Matt Niskanen, and Marty Havlat (Havlat is an impostor of an NHL caliber player).





The Joshfrey Krupels exemplify exactly why this post is completely meaningless.  Ryan Miller put on an absolute show in Vancouver 4 years ago, but is a current non-contributor to the Krupels scoring roster.  More to the point, however, Matt Duchene, Claude Giroux, and Kyle Okposo have put up 166 points in the NHL this season, and none have played a game for their respective nations at the Olympics.  Duchene is rumoured to be warming either the bench or the press-box in Sochi, while Giroux and Okposo are arguably the biggest snubs of the tournament, having tallied the highest NHL totals of any two players staying home.





The Milan Micahleks boast the second most Olympians in Sochi (10) and the most debutants (7).  That number could have been higher had Vrbata, Baertschi, and Colin Wilson not been blatantly overlooked.  Haha, minus whoever that last guy is.




The Teeyotes have the double honour of owning the fewest Olympians ever and sending the fewest players to Sochi.  Teehan tl;dr.


 

  

Ilya Kovalchuk.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

KL Week in Review: Week 20

Uh remember how I said last week that this was going to be very short on account of a forthcoming Month in Review post? Well, shit. It's still coming. In the meantime, here we sit after 20 (!!) weeks of competition:


A few notes:
  • The Micahleks just can't crack 1st place.
  • The TEEYOTES ARE IN A MONEY SPOT. I'm really happy about that. The happier Teehan is in this league, the happier the league is.
  • Sadly it is at the expense of the Winter Claassics. That 4th place spot is hotly contested right now and I'd love to see some GMs in that zone make some moves before the roster freeze (March 6th). 
  • The Powder Rangers have, despite losing Steven Stamkos, taken 14 weeks to hit 8th place. It is a credit to the strength of the rest of the team that they have remained even remotely competitive.
  • On the same note, they are proportionately not much further behind 1st place now than they were on November 12th, on a Points:Points Behind Leader basis. Of course, an inverse of that is the Games Remaining:Points Behind Leader ratio which is not nearly as favourable. 
  • Is 8th place a race between 3 teams? 17 points separate 8th and 9th place, whilst 30 whole points separate 10th from 11th. The Dicklas Lidstroms are 56 points back of a playoff spot. 
  • I am heartened to see the Kovalchuk-less Vanrooser Canicks in 12th place. After spending the first half of the season in 16th place, they have steadily clawed their way up to 12th. They may run out of road before they run out of gas, but they are my long-shot favourites to take the 8th and final playoff spot.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

KL Week in Review: Week 19

There isn't much to say this week, because I am also posting the Month in Review. This is here for completeness.