Zajac to the Powder Rangers

December 18, 2011

The Preydators averted a bidding war on Travis Zajac by quickly dealing him to the Powder Rangers for injured Ville Leino and Christian "On pace for 38 without the Sedins" Ehrhoff. The Preydators also threw in defenceman Alex "Blue chip 21 year-old 4th overall pick in 2008 on an up-and-coming team" Pietrangelo.

Analysis:

Read between the lines.

Witless Protection, Part I

You let that guy go? What were you thinking?

Before you read this post, take off your corrective lenses - hindsight is 20/20. Now let’s take a look back at the top five - wait, six - players that should have been kept back in September when we submitted our protected rosters, but instead were cut like Ryan Murphy from the World Junior roster (huge mistake).

To be fair, most of these guys are putting up unprecedented career numbers, and you would have been mercilessly mocked for keeping them. Now you’re getting mercilessly mocked for dropping them, as if you didn’t feel bad enough already for missing out on the points. 

6. Joffrey Lupul - Teeyotes
Lupul had flashes of brilliance in 07-08 with 46 points in 56 games for the Flyers, but he appeared to be trending in the opposite direction. With 34 points this year he has already surpassed the level many projected for him, and sits 3rd overall in scoring. I don’t want to belabour the point because everyone knows it, but still, 3rd overall in scoring! AT let this home team gem slip through the cracks, opting instead for the promise of Patrice Bergeron, who currently has the same amount of points as Marc-Andre Bergeron. To be fair, nobody saw this coming, not even Fy who waited until the 101st pick to select Lupul.

5. Brian Campbell - Moilers
Second among defencemen with 24 points in 31 games, Campbell has been reborn in Florida. But you can’t fault the Moilers for keeping John Carlson and Kris Letang, tenth and first in points per game among defencemen. You could argue she should have him over forward Bryan Little, but even he has 20 points in 30 games. The Dicklas Lidstroms took Campbell in the first round.

4. Dmitry Kulikov - Joshfrey Krupuls
With 20 points in 30 games, Kulikov is good for 7th among defencemen. I’m actually going to pull a quote from JK here, from back in September: “Kulikov may, and I say that strongly, have some upside to his 26 points last year, but it is completely an unknown at this point -- and it is still a long way to go to get into the 38+ that either Pitkanen or Wideman can be expected to grab.” Kulikov is tied with Wideman and beating Pitkanen. Most importantly, the 21 year-old former first round draft pick looks to be a franchise cornerstone for the Patrik Stefans, who somehow stole him in the 7th round, 72nd overall.

 3. Stephen Weiss - Joshfrey Krupuls
Stephen Weiss has 31 points in 31 games. Another Joshfrey Krupuls reject, Weiss was jettisoned after a disappointing 49-point performance last year. However, he had 60 and 61 in the two years prior, and everyone in the world except JK knew Florida was going to be awesome this year and a line of middling players would turn into stars. Regardless, Weiss probably should have been kept over Jordan Staal, who has never cracked 50 points (30 in 42 last year was good, but there were unusual circumstances in Pittsburgh last year with Crosby and Malkin also missing most of the season). The Preydators selected Weiss in the 3rd round this year.

2. Jason Pominville - Teeyotes
Jason Pominville sits just behind Joffrey Lupul with 32 points in 30 games. How good could the Teeyotes be right now?! This is worse than Lupul because it was more foreseeable: the Dicklas Lidstroms eagerly snatched Pominville up in the first round, 7th overall. Pominville is just three years removed from an 80 point season, although his point totals have been shrinking since and I don’t think he will maintain this pace. Still, come on AT.

1. Johan Franzen - Patrik Stefans
The Mule is right on a point per game pace through 29 games. Granted, Franzen has never been a point per game player before, but his last two seasons saw him score 55 and 59 points, so he was a safe bet to at least repeat those numbers. The Mackhawks smartly selected him in the first round this year. What makes SW's choice, in my opinion, the worst, is not Johan the Barbarian’s greatness so much as it is the terribleness of the player SW thought would be better than Franzen: Ville Leino. That is not a typo. Leino has ten points this season. Time to recalibrate the projection machine.

Honourable mention: Kris Versteeg - Preydators
Versteeg is another Florida Panther that continues to shock. With 33 points in 30 games, he is one of about 20 players above a point per game pace this year. The Preydators let Versteeg go, pretending not to know how awesome he was, even fake shit-talking him. Then LP drafted him with the 121st pick. This may be the smartest move in the history of the KL. Hence, Versteeg does not make the list.

Any glaring omissions?

Next post: The top five players that should have been chucked but weren’t, other than Ville Leino and Joni Pitkanen. This is where it gets mean.

Another Trade

November 20, 2011

This morning, the Milan Micahleks traded Gabriel Landeskog, Cam Fowler and a 2012 3rd round pick to the Winter Claassics for Patrick Marleau and Kyle Quincey.

Analysis: According to the Milan Michalek's GM, "this trade was a difficult decision for our organization, but we knew we had to give value to get value." He denied allegations that the Fowler trade was intended as a wake-up call for teammate Ryan Getzlaf. Coming over in Landeskog's slot is Marleau, "a keeper without hesitation." Marleau went in the 3rd round of the inaugural KL draft last year. He's been over a point-per-game in three of his last five seasons, and he's the model of reliability, missing, on average, just two games a year over his 13-year career. At 32, he still has a few good seasons left on a top team. Quincey is not a keeper on this roster but he's having a great season and should fill the 4th d-man slot nicely.

The Winter Claassics get younger, faster, and sexier. The jury is still out on whether 2nd overall pick Landeskog is "elite" enough to be a superstar. Fowler is either experiencing a sophomore slump or it looks like he is because his whole team is in a protracted slump. But both players have lots of upside: Landeskog is 4th in the league in shots, for example. We will re-examine this trade in a few years and there will be a clear winner - and that winner will likely be Claassen.

Breaking: Blockbuster Trade

Our first in-season trade just transpired. It took nearly a week of protracted negotiations, some name-calling and some blackmailing with compromising photos, but finally the GMs of the Powder Rangers and Patrik Stefans reached a blockbuster deal.

To the Powder Rangers: Niemi, Leino, Gudbranson, the Patrik Stefans' 3rd rounder in 2012

To the Patrik Stefans: Mason, Couture, Ekman-Larsson, the Rangers' 6th rounder in 2012

Analysis:

The fifth place Powder Rangers are led by two top-ten (I’ll admit it now) franchise players in Kopitar and Stamkos, but plagued but underwhelming early performances from a number of should-be scoring roster forwards (Okposo, Grabner, Cole and Havlat all sit below eight points). So newly acquired disappointment Ville Leino should fit right in. Gudbranson, despite Wittman’s attempt to sell his fantasy potential, is a slot filler in this trade and Regehr is well aware of that. This is a bit of a gamble as the P-Rangers are only carrying five defencemen this year – a serious injury to the top four would spell trouble. The real driver for this trade was the P-Rangers’ issues in the crease – Hiller is not cutting it as a starter and Mason isn’t playing well enough to be a fantasy backup keeper, never mind an NHL starter. Niemi shores up the P-Rangers’ goaltending for the foreseeable future. However, as he slots into Mason’s roster spot, his impact will not be felt until he overtakes Hiller as the scoring goalie – eight points to make up.

The 12^th place (but only 12 points behind fifth) Patrik Stefans have handed the starting goaltender duties to a young Corey Crawford. He’s played well enough to earn it, but Wittman acknowledges the serious risk he is now exposed to should an injury occur. When you think about it though, very few teams in the KL have two legitimate goaltenders that keep pace with each other for the whole season such that one could replace the other if injured. It’s a risk we all take and one history has shown we are prepared to deal with when it arises. Mason provides some diamond-in-the-rough potential, but probably less than the Stefans gave up in Leino. Ekman-Larsson solidifies a strong core of young and old on defence (Kulikov, Wisniewski, Gonchar, Pronger). He’s potentially ripe enough to keep next year (or at least have trade value) and provides injury insurance this year. Couture will start two points back of the scoring roster in Leino’s spot and should be contributing within a week or two. Long-term, we all know Couture is good, but the jury is still out on whether he’s actually good or just or Setoguchi-good. Or worse, Cheechoo-good.

Recognizing a slight imbalance, the GMs agreed to swap 3^rd and 6^th round draft picks next year. That makes things pretty close in my mind. But it’s more fun if we pick a winner and loser. I have to give less value to any draft picks Regehr acquires because this year he took Chris Kunitz in the first round – so I’m declaring Stefan the winner, but by decision, not knockout. 

Unrelated news - a summary of free agent acquisitions to date:

date             team                     drop             add

10/17/2011 Dicklas Lidstroms D Girardi  MA Bergeron
10/23/2011 Schizzarks M Sheifele  M Michalek
10/23/2011 Patrik Stefans J Caron  M Read
10/26/2011 Joshfrey Krupuls M Zibanejad  J Lindstrom
10/28/2011 Powder Rangers A Stewart  C Higgins
10/29/2011 Moilers A McDonald  M Hanzal
10/31/2011 Winter Claassics J Leopold  K Quincey
11/2/2011 Milan Micahleks J Hudler  D Desharnais
11/7/2011 GPhil's Flyers S Elliot  C Potter 

The Perfect Night and Other Musings

The Perfect Night

It's too early in our league's history to tell, but the Teeyotes' 22-point performance last night may go down in history with Wilt Chamberlain's 100-point game or any of the all-too-common perfect games in baseball. In one night of incredible fantasy hockey, the Teeyotes earned more points than the Moilers, St. Jewish Blues and Winter Claassics did all week. The Bruins' 7-0 rout of the Leafs played a big role, as Teeyotes Thomas, Lucic and Bergeron combined for 11 points.

Schizz asked if this might be a record. I could only scan the previous blog posts, which went up Sundays and thus show the "points last night" from all the Saturdays last year. Saturdays almost always have the most games scheduled, so while it's possible but unlikely that someone would have earned more points on a different day, we can safely assume that 22 points is a new record. The previous best was 20 points from the Mackhawks last November; there were also a couple of 17 point nights. Of course, those scores a from a different era - one where shutout wins were worth 7.

Fy also had a pretty big week.

At This Time Last Year

• 51 points separated 1st from 15th, compared to 59 at present. 
• The Krupuls, Schizzarks and Teeyotes, who finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd, respectively, were in 11th, 10th and 14th. 
• G-Phil had just written a post, noting, "this has been a weird year with obscenely hot starts from okay players, and no production at all from previously consistent stars." 

Other Musings


On that note (this being a "weird year"), I thought it was worth sharing some excerpts from a sort-of impromptu fantasy hockey support group of five people that are GMs in the KL and members of a few other fantasy hockey leagues / gambling websites. I've left the names out, but you can probably figure it out. Warning, NSFW language:

I'm disgusted by how the first month of the season has played out.  

The Avs, Oil, Panthers, Stars, Coyotes, Leafs, Wild -- ranked 30th, 28th, 27th, 26th, 25th, 23rd, and 21st respectively by one of my power ranking sources pre-season -- have combined to go 50-22-10 to start the season.  That's the record of a potential President's Cup winning team.  The Sens have a better winning percentage than the Canucks.  Boston is the second worst team in hockey.  It's all absurd.

And don't get me started on individual players.  I guess we see it every year, with the Kessels and sorts who set out to more than triple their pre-season projections.  But even so, we're not just a week in right now, but about 15% of the way through the season, and some players who got out to hot starts have stayed on form.  While we all know about Kessel, who the fuck saw Lupul and Michalek on pace for 100?  Sure, that's not actually ever going to happen and I say neither breaks 60, but they're both already more than halfway to where I had them finishing originally.  And at the other end of the spectrum, while Pominville and Vanek are surging, Derek Roy has 4 points in 11 games, Ville Leino has 2 (FML - fuck my leino).  And that's not just a sobering sabering phenomenon.  Henrik needs to be Betterberg than 4 points, Eric's Stalled on 5, and Matt's Douching it up with 6.  On the blue-line, Marc-Andre Bergeron is on pace for more points than either Sedin, and even Buttfuck-Who-Corey-Potter has 8 points [Micah: I would have went with Corey Potter and the Deathly Hall-Nuge-Eberle Powerplay He Piggybacks On].  Also, who is Jason Garrison and what the fuck is he doing playing 25 mins per night in Florida and quarterbacking their PP?  Sure, regression to the mean will exert its force sooner or later, but you can't help but shake your head with some of this stuff from October.

I said I wouldn't do this, but I have to air my grievances about my shit luck with some players. I've already alluded to the horrid start of one Ville Leino, and I know you guys would say you're not all that surprised by the sluggishness of Iginla and Heatley, but I'm understandably disappointed that NOT ONE of my gambles are panning out.  Loktionov, Butler, Zuccarello, Caron, and Gudbranson... there's a good reason you still haven't heard of them, and won't until at least next season.  At least I flipped one for Matt Read who is due for another 4 point night, right?  And at the back, though my top 4 are in the overall top 20 for PPG for defensemen, off course Chris Pronger's dream start was too good to be true (I'm sure he's texting Bryan Berard on their brail-equipped Androids) and Wisnieski's anticipated start was truly just a dream.  

And a reply:

Thesis: Nikolai Khabibulin is #1 on the TSN NHL player rankings right now.  Enough said.

But not really enough said, because my fantasy hockey existence right now is much like a linesmen trying to hold Cal Clutterbuck back - I worked hard, put my time in, and got punched in the face anyway, twice.

Keepers: I think my D are probably exactly where everyone would have expected, my forwards are starting to finally show some life, but my goalie situation right now is embarassing with Optimus Reim injured by Decepticons and Carey Price looking like a young Roberto Luongo in October.  I'm fairly convinced the ship will right itself some, but I don't like being in the basement.

What the H?: I'm with you on this year.  I like the leafs and the oilers, but if you would have told me they were the two top teams in the NHL even 12 games into the season, I would have taken a dump on your living room carpet.

Individuals: Have I mentioned how ugly Phil Kessel is yet today? And i'm pretty sure Erik Karlsson hangs out behind KFC's banging everyone's sisters.  Eric Staal is a shocking -12 in addition to his abysmal play.  Derek Roy seems to not even be able to get a shot on net most nights (and playing on a line with Drew Stafford who is starting to look like he was a flash in the bed pan). Anaheim should sign Selanne to a 10 year contract right now, kidnap his children if they have to - he is involved on every goal that team has put up this year.  Kris Versteeg is on pace for 80+ pts which I think we all saw coming frankly.  Oh and Luke Adam has more points than Steven Stamkos and Ovechkin if anyone was wondering, as does Brian Campbell.

A final thought: Toronto players are #1 and #3 in points right now.  Ottawa players 5th, 13th, and 17th.  This shit just ain't right I tells yeah, it ain't right.  Except for Josh Harding, aren't we all glad to see him turn his career around?

There you have it. It's been a strange year so far, but maybe every year seems like a strange year, at least in November. If everything was predictable, fantasy hockey (and regular hockey, for those who care) wouldn't be as captivating. Leafs fans start talking about making the playoffs and Kessel for the Hart. Then they lose 7-0 to the Bruins. Canucks fans panic after a mediocre start. Then they beat the Blackhawks 6-0 (prediction). 

Wrinkly pucks

If you opened your players' lockers, would you find reading glasses, Depends and prescription Viagra? Or fake IDs, posters of Taylor Swift and... Mexican Viagra?

When selecting players in a keeper league, GMs have to make valuations of different factors: reliability, potential, risk, situation, etc. One of those factors is age, because all else being equal, a player one year younger is a player on your scoring roster one year longer.

The graph below shows the ages of each team's protected roster. The top of the orange bar is the oldest player, the bottom is the youngest, and the blue marker is the average. Keep in mind that averages can be skewed by outliers (see Selanne, Teemu or Lidstrom, Nick). The teams are arranged left to right from last year's winner to last place.

A couple of observations. First, the averages are closer than I expected, from the Preydator's 23.8 to the Krupul's 30.3. Leaving aside those two, everyone is between 25 and 30. Second, being "old" isn't necessarily bad - the three teams with the highest average age finished first, third and fourth (the fourth highest, the Roos Canicks, finished last, but not because they were old). Finally, it's clear from the chart that the Schizzarks are only interested in that brief 'prime' age range, retaining nobody over 30 - something the Moilers GM may want to keep in mind.

Of course, this doesn't take into account half of our rosters. The rebuilding Canicks got a lot younger through the draft, while the Preydators may have, against all logic, gotten older and more Czech.

I don't think there is too much to read into this - the best fantasy team is the one that scores the most points - but it's interesting to look at age as a potential indicator of current, pending or fading success.

KL Season in Review: 2010-2011

Congratulations are definitely in order.  GM Josh Krusell drafted his Krugars and, like a mother sea turtle, took to the ocean and left them to fend for themselves. Beginning the season under 6 feet of sand, the Krugars, over the next 20 weeks, would kick, scratch, and bite their way to the surface and to the open sea. This epic climb was foreshadowed in the graph post I did in week ten, where the Krugars were featured in the "The Long Road to the Top" graph. When Josh returned from Australia with four weeks left in the regular season, he barely recognized his first place team.

What makes this victory, the first in Keeper League history, especially notable?

1. Josh made exactly zero trades and used none of his free agent pickups. 

2. Josh drafted 15th out of 15. Sure, the snake draft is supposed to even things out, but given a choice in a keeper league draft, would you want to pick last?

3. Josh decided to participate in the draft approximately half an hour before the draft started. He happened to be in Vancouver, hanging out with Powder, and that's what Powder was doing that afternoon. While some of us had prepared for days, Josh did his research between picks with a discarded copy of the Score Forecaster and Chatelaine's holiday decorating issue. Josh was picking Claude Giroux in the 6th round and Lubomir Visnovsky in the 8th while the rest of us were picking Sergei Gonchar in the 4th and Wojtek Wolski in the 5th.

Again, congratulations Josh. The Keeper League Championship is hereinafter and irrevocably dubbed the Krusell Cup. 

Less important in the long term, but I suspect more appreciated in the short term, Josh will shortly be receiving a cool $240.

Schizzarks: Hell of a debut fantasy hockey season for Shizzarks' rookie GM Schizz "Schizz" Schissel - this was one of several pools he won or came second in. Notably, this second place finish came without first round pick Zach Parise. Schizz earns $96 this year. 

Teeyotes: GM Teehan fought hard for this one and he earned it. He probably sacrificed the next four years to place third, but here's hoping that's not the case. Hey, no team with Tavares can be that bad. Oh wait.  Anyway, Teehan takes home $72.

Wittmen: At times holding what looked like an insurmountable lead (I have the February 13th email where, picking up Grabner as a free agent, Stefan says "I think I've got this in the bag") the Wittmen stumbled down the stretch, slipping to fourth place. The consolation prize: a $72 donation to the charity of Stefan's choice (to be announced).

Honourable mention to Dickie and the Dicklas Lidstroms, who put up .77 points per game, enough for a four-way tie with the top three teams.  They finished ninth largely because their scoring roster played the fewest games - 108 fewer than the Wittmen.

Hope everyone enjoyed the pool this year as much as I did. Thanks for your patience as we worked the kinks out.

Trades in the KL can resume after the playoffs. Expect to hear from me sometime this summer about the procedures moving forward for 2011-2012. If you are dropping out for some reason, let me know asap. We have a waiting list and those would-be GMs will want some time to make off-season evaluations, trades, etc.

--Commissioner Carmody

KL Week in Review: Week 25

Injuries may play a pivotal role in determining the final standings over these last eight days of hockey. In an interview last week, GM Krusell of the Krugars observed that "with Ryan Miller not travelling with the Sabres, and Wideman and Nielsen now out of the season, I am all of a sudden super-vulnerable at the top." Pressed for details, he added, "OMG, you haven't heard of Dinosaur Jr?!"

The Schizzarks may have it even worse, missing four prominent forwards in Sharp, Nash, Williams and Hemsky.  Although pickuphockey projects them to finish second, that assumes that injured players play and earn points in the remaining games. I see them falling to fourth, maybe fifth if the Fylanders have a good week. The Fylanders, Wittmen and Teeyotes all have no current injuries to their scoring roster.

Prediction: Victoria Krugars christen the Krusell Cup.

1. Krugars
2. Wittmen
3. Teeyotes
4. Schizzarks
5. Fylanders

Top Ten Greatest KL Draft Picks of 2010

It's late enough in the season that we can fairly reflect on our draft-day decisions. Here is my subjective ranking of the top ten draft-day steals. I took into account the fact that goalies were overvalued this year (my bad), so picks had to be compared within their positions (i.e., forwards to other forwards, etc.). I sometimes considered injuries and sometimes considered future potential, but not really. It's more art than science. 

Without further ado... 

10. Martin St. Louis, Victoria Krugars: 1st round, 15th overall

Second in scoring with 91 points - who thought he would outscore Stamkos?

9. Dustin Byfuglien, Teeyotes: 11th round, 156th overall (35th defenceman taken)

Fourth among defencemen in scoring, 52 points.

8. Kris Letang, Moilers: 12th round,169th overall (38th defenceman taken)

Sixth among d-men in scoring, 48 points - without Crosby and Malkin for half the year. More potential than Byfuglien. 

7. Alex Pietrangelo, Preydators: 17th round, 242nd overall (65th defenceman taken)

19th among defencemen in scoring, 41 points and just 21 years old.

6. Claude Giroux, Victoria Krugars: 6th round, 76th overall

Drafted after teammates Carter, Briere and Richards but leads the team with 71 points (12th overall). 

5. James Wisniewski, Fylanders: 15th round, 214th overall (53rd defenceman taken)

8th in defencemen scoring with 47 points.

4. Keith Yandle, Manitoba Roos: 8th round, 107th overall (17th defenceman taken)

Third among defencemen in scoring with 58 points. People used to make fun of Keith Yandle.

3. Lubomir Visnovsky, Victoria Krugars: 8th round, 106th overall (16th defenceman taken)

First among defencemen with 63 points - career best 67 from 05-06 is beatable.

2. Carey Price, Schizzarks: 16th round, 233rd overall (25th goaltender taken)

Yes, 25th goaltender taken. Second to only Henrik Lundqvist in KL points, thanks to eight shutouts.

1. Teemu Selanne, Winter Claassics: 17th round, 253rd overall.

10th in scoring with 75 points, 8th in points per game. Late-round gambles on aging superstars can pay off. If we could do the draft over again, he would go second round. Great pick, DC.

Honourable mention: Rafalski (Schizzarks, 8th round, 4th in d pts per game), Ryan Whitney (Fylanders, 8th round, 3rd in d pts per game), Burns (Claassics, 15th round, 43 pts), D. Sedin (Wittmen, 7th overall, leading scorer), Ribeiro (Dicklas, 7th round, 66 pts), Lundqvist (Dicklas, 8th goalie taken, first in KL points), Tanguay (P-Rangers, 13th round, 59 pts), Couture (P-Rangers, 15th round, 53 pts as rookie), T. Ruutu (Moilers, 18th round, 50 points), Vrbata (Roos, 299th/300, 46 points - but Micah picked for Roos because he had to leave early). 

Any great picks I missed?

Other observations:

1. A lot of defencemen made the list, and I think that reflects my observation that there was more unpredicatability at defence this year than at forward. Forwards, with few exceptions, either did roughly what we expected, or disappointed. The top ten scoring forwards were all drafted in the first three rounds, with the exception of Teemu Selanne. The top ten scoring defencemen were drafted in the 8th, 5th, 8th, 11th, 5th, 4th, 12th, 15th, 6th, and 9th rounds, respectively. 

2. There were two distinct "waves" of goalie pickups. 14 goalies were taken in the first five rounds. Just one was taken in the next five rounds. Nine were taken in rounds 11 to 15, and just three were taken in the last five rounds. This aligns with what we observed during the draft: the majority of GMs took a solid goalie early, with a few choosing to wait... when some GMs started taking their second goalie around round 12, the rest panicked and added their second (or first and second) goalies. Price was the Schizzarks' second goalie pick, after Backstrom in the 13th round.

3. Worst pick candidate:

Nikita Filatov, P-Rangers, 9th round. 

KL Week in Review: Week 24

The J-Krugars are absolutely running away with it with just two weeks and a day left (regular season ends with four games on April 10).

Krugars' goaltender Ryan Miller earned 16 points last week (three wins, two shutouts), more than the Wittmen's entire team. The Wittmen's poor performance allowed the Schizzarks to sneak into second. The Teeyotes hold down the final winning spot.

The Fylanders came out of nowhere to sneak into fifth place on a whopping 50 point week, including six from Zdeno Chara. The Fylanders have quietly had the best March, after the Krugars. Fourteen points out of fourth, they could certainly challenge for a winning spot.

KL Week in Review: Week 23

A quick update as four GMs meet in New York to discuss changes to the KL. On the agenda are topics such as rule revisions (especially goalie shutout points) and concussions (especially whether Lia was suffering from one during the inaugural draft).

Incredible! A tie for first place! The Krugars have been unstoppable, earning more points than any other team in March. They are injury-free and Kari Lehtonen has 70 points (20 in March alone), meaning he could actually surpass Ryan Miller (75). Shane Doan paced the Krugars with seven points this week.

Here are the odds of winning the KL inaugural championship, courtesy of vegasinsider.com:

1. Victoria Krugars: 5/1 - "Hands-off" management style paying off.
2. Calgary Wittmen: 7/1 - Will Kesler and Sedin see less ice time now that the Canucks have clinched?
3. Schizzarks: 10/1 - Price is everything. Would trading Parise have put them over the top?
4. Powder Rangers: 16/1 - In-season rebuilding leads to surprising late push.
5. Teeyotes: 18/1 - Finishing outside of top-four would be disastrous, given draft picks traded away.
6. Manitoba Roos: 500/1 - Actually having a better month than five teams.

KL Week in Review: Week 22

The Wittmen are a deep and healthy team. Yesterday I looked at the projected totals and the Schizzarks were favoured to win by two points. After last night's incredible 15 points without so much as a goalie win, the Wittmen are the favourites. Daniel Sedin is on pace for an NHL-best 104 points.

Although the Schizzarks and Krugars have better points-per-game (.78 and .77 respectively), the Wittmen have been incredibly lucky with injuries, with their scoring roster having played more games than any other team, and in some cases, almost a hundred more games.

Elsewhere in the league, the Powder Rangers won their battle with the Mackhawks for fifth place and have set their sights on fourth. The Teeyotes had a terrible week. Tim Thomas has not lived up to expectations post-trade (he has two more points than still-concussed Jonas Hiller would have had since the trade), and the defencemen combined for three points this week.

Finally, the Micaleks have successfully nose-dived to 12, where they hope to stay in order to get the fourth overall pick. As their GM once remarked, "if you're not top four, you want to be in Roos' spot."

KL Week in Review: Week 21 (I think)

Just checked the standings this morning and was pleased to see the race is back on. The Teeyotes, Schizzarks and Krugars are closing the gap on the Wittmen. All had solid 30+ point weeks. The Powder Rangers had the best week, with 39. You can't count them out yet. I spoke with their GM and he said he would be very happy with a top four finish in a year he was previously calling a rebuilding year. Of course, fifth place is the worst spot to finish: no money, and the worst draft position out of the non-money teams.

The Schizzarks didn't get the offer they were hoping for for injured Zach Parise, and decided to keep him for next year. (Rumor has it the Claassics were offering Marleau for Parise and a pick.) Probably a smart move, although if it ends up being the difference between first and second place, that's $150.

Wittmen have 97 points from their top goalie slot. Schizzarks also have 97. Teeyotes have 79. Krugars have 71. Mackhaws 86. Rangers 84. Goalies are the top point producers on most, but not all teams.

Transactions: Trade Deadline!

I'm just going to keep updating this post with any trades made from now until the 28th.

02/25/11 Free agent pickup:  Fylanders drop Mike Knuble and add Mark Recchi.

02/26/11 Trade: 

Teeyotes to Milan Micahleks:
G Jonas Hiller
D Mark Streit
F Andrew Cogliano

Micahleks to Teeyotes:
G Tim Thomas
D Andrew MacDonald
F Jakub Voracek
Conditional 4th round pick in 2011 if the Michaleks put two of the acquired players on their Protected Roster for 2011.

02/28/11 Trade:

Powder Rangers to G-Phil's Flyers:
D Jaroslav Spacek
2011 3rd round pick previously acquired from the Milan Micahleks

G-Phil's Flyers to Powder Rangers:
D Ryan Suter

That's it for this year! A relatively quiet deadline day after a bevy of trades in January. Nothing to do now but sit back and watch the Wittmen succumb to injuries and fall catastrophically out of the top 4.

Sorry, one more pickup that made it to my email at 11:58am. (I was at home on Monday.)

Schizzarks drop D Kevin Bieksa for D Joe Corvo.

KL Week in Review: Week 19

We missed week 18 because the standings were all screwed up after a trade. Anyway, as you can see, the Wittmen are holding their lead. The Schizzarks, Teeyotes and Krugars are still in the hunt. However, if you look at the monthly point totals, it seems only the Schizzarks have the steam to keep up with the Wittmen. Antii Niemi has given the Wittmen an incredible 29 points so far this month. Olli Jokinen has also been red hot for the equally hot flames. Both are expecting season-ending injuries on March 1.

Trade Deadline Preview

Happy Valentine’s Day. With the trade deadline just two weeks away, here's a look at each team’s strategic position and the players whose names are likely to come up in trade discussions. I.e., here is some baseless conjecture I made up during a slow day at work. I apologize in advance if I offend you or undermine your bargaining positions.

Sellers:

Winter Claassics: Have already shifted to a younger, faster roster. May be looking to unload Patrick Marleu - 41 points; 32 years old. RJ Umberger, Matt Cullen and Ryan Smyth are also legitimate secondary scorers and I think Claassen would part with them for the right price.

Manitoba Roos:  This may be the time to let go of red-hot Mikael Samuelsson (12 points this month, more than any other skater), if the Roos can get a better injured player or a prospect and a pick in return. Teams may also have their eyes on Kimmo Timonen and Radim Vrbata.

Preydators : The Preydators have a great defensive core, so they may be looking to move Leopold (32 points). You can't keep four defencemen. Well, technically you can, but I wouldn’t. Actually with those forwards I might.

Dicklas Lidstroms: Mike “I have 47 points?” Ribeiro recently asked to be traded to a contender.

K-blat: Goaltending prevented this otherwise competitive team from really competing. Fungible assets include Morrow, Kaberle.

Moilers:. The Moilers may attempt to unload Ruutu (43 points), or Andy McDonald (21 points in 30 games). But don't hold your breath. This GM is "attached to her little guys" and reluctant to consider trades, even very reasonable ones that would have kept the Micahleks alive.

Milan Michaleks: I spoke with the Michaleks' GM and he says he'd entertain reasonable and unreasonable offers for pretty much everyone on his roster. He used the phrase “yard sale” repeatedly. Doughty and Edler are the only untouchables.

G-Phil's Flyers: Just sold Lidstrom (and got Malkin - not bad, I guess). Still may be looking to move Vokoun, even Datsyuk for the right price – but that price could be high, given G-Phil has no pressing needs to address and is already reporting record season ticket sales for next year (top line: Ovechkin, Malkin, Datsyuk).

Could go either way:

Powder Rangers: GM Regehr’s rebuild plan and some shrewd trades are already paying off (see Okposo, Kiprusoff and Evander Kane). Rumour has it GM Regehr doesn't get along with Alex Tanguay (42 points but “strained neck”) and would probably part with him for some help next year on defence.

Mackhawks: Having just lost the free agent sweepstakes for Grabner, this team needs a bold move to get back in the race. If they decide to wait, they’ll be looking for blue line help for next year and rumuor has it Phil Kessel has asked for a trade.

Buyers (and holders):

Wittmen: Strong goaltending from Niemi has made Jimmy Howard superfluous. That trade, which also involved Kesler for Spezza, now looks like the turning point in the season. Barring injuries before the 28^th, the Wittmen have no needs to address. I’ve spoken with their GM – he is very confident in his team.

Teeyotes: Almost traded away Hiller but should be glad they didn’t. Just acquired Filppula and Lidstrom to fill the void of Malkin, but Filppula hasn’t been cleared to skate yet (knee), so the Teeyotes might be looking for another scoring forward. Might also want a depth forward for insurance – look at the bottom of his roster. Has depth on defence for a team looking to add a vet for next year - Zidlicky or Streit.

Krugars: With no injuries at present, and not having made any moves this year,  this team has its sights set on J-Kruising to a peer-shaming victory.* There are some attractive assets in the non-scoring roster too – e.g., Kulikov and Gagne.

Schizzarks: The Schizzarks continue to ride Carey Price, but are now getting contributions from the whole roster. Again, no key injuries in the SR, but some tempting injured assets off the SR in proven Devil Parise and unproven Devil Taormina.

Fylanders: No key injuries to scoring roster, good depth coming from bottom end with Hossa and Lecavalier about to break into the SR. May want to upgrade in goal (will Fleury win a lot with Malkin and Crosby out?), or at the high slots currently occupied by Knuble and Brown.

*full credit to Greg for the J-Kruising joke.

Transactions

02/13/2011  Free Agent Pickup

Wittmen drop F Brandon Yip;  Add F Michael Grabner

Analysis: Grabner has nine goals in five games, and 24 on the season. I knew the Islanders would start scoring eventually, I was just totally wrong about who would do the scoring.

Transactions

TRADE - 02/13/2011

Teeyotes to G-Phil's Flyers:
F  Malkin, D Kronwall
2012 3rd round pick if Malkin scores <60 points in 2011-12.

G-Phil's Flyers to Teeyotes:
F Filppula, D Lidstrom
2011 3rd round pick if Lidstrom retires before 2011 draft.

Analysis:  With Malkin gone for the season and the Teeyotes in second place, they had to move him or else pack it in for the season. Vilppula will fill some of the gap, but this is really a Lidstrom-for-Malkin trade. Problem is Lidstrom has slowed down - just two points in his last ten games.

I have to give this one to Greg, but if Teehan comes top four he won't regret the move. I think Lidstrom's done after this year (though some would disagree), and if so, that third round pick will come in handy.

Scary thought: Greg has Ovechkin and Malkin on his roster for next year. That's two more Russians than you'd like, but if they play 82 games each and produce even at "average" levels, G-Phil's Flyers will be hard to beat. Tense atmosphere in the locker room though.

KL Week in Review: Week 17

First let me apologize for totally dropping the ball last week and neglecting to capture the standings. I guess the excitement of all-star weekend threw me off.

This week, well this is just embarrassing for the Michaleks, aka ultimate choke artists. Eight points in a week - that is lowest week total of all any team, all year! It's less than half of the second worst total this week - the Dicklas Lidstroms' 17. Also note the Saturday night goose egg, despite 13 active players.

Congrats to the Wittmen who took over the lead on a very strong week. They were paced by Johan Franzen's five goal game and an Antii Niemi shutout.

I've been working a lot of weekends lately but I hope to, in the next week or so, do a trade deadline post, tsn-style - who's buying, who's selling, who are the top players available, etc. Unless someone beats me too it. And after the trade deadline, I plan to do an analysis of each team's chances of winning, which of course will be completely wrong.

What are we competing for?

This year we had three full lawyers, six baby lawyers, and six students, paying $50, $35, and $20, respectively. The total pot was $480. When we are all lawyers or law dropouts, it will be $750, assuming we keep fees the same.

According to Schedule II of the Rules,

a) Prize money is distributed as follows:

i) 50% to first place;

ii) 20% to second place;

iii) 15% to third place;

iv) 15% to charity, with the tax receipt going to fourth place.

That means:

$240 to first;
$96 to second;
$72 to third;
$72 to charity.

Maybe that can provide a little more motivation as we head into the final stretch. You may also be happy to know I've lost my top defenceman in Edler for the season, and I'm still missing Getzlaf for another two weeks, so the Micahleks should not be on top for long. I'd be happy with top four.

PS: Congrats to us on our 50th post!

KL Week in Review: Week 15

So... how does everyone feel about playing for the Carmody Cup for the rest of their lives?

Just wondering.

I am afraid of the Krugars though. 

Transactions

Two trades to announce:


01/19/2011 TRADE

St. Jewish Blues to Milan Micahleks:
D Bryan McCabe

Milan Micahleks to St. Jewish Blues:
D Zach Bogosian

Milan Micahleks to G-Phil's Flyers
D Bryan McCabe
F Tim Connolly

G-Phil's Flyers to Milan Micaleks:
D Andrew MacDonald (in lieu of Kurtis Foster)
F Nikolai Zherdev

Analysis: SJ Blues get all-star prospect Bogosian. Micah sheds tear for Bogo, realizes he doesn't want Bryan McCabe, deals to G-Phil. G-Phil gets Connolly, gives almost nothing. Micah gets MacDonald. Micah likah the Islanders.


---------------------------------------


01/17/2011 TRADE

Powder Rangers to Schizzarks:
F Erik Cole
F Tomas Kopecky (in lieu of Mike Comrie)
F Teddy Purcell

 Schizzarks to Powder Rangers:
F Kyle Okposo (in lieu of Tomas Holmstrom)
F Jamie Langenbrunner
F Magnus Paajarvi
Conditional draft pick*

 *If Powder Rangers retain Okposo on their 2011 protected roster, the Schizzark's 5th round pick. If not, the Schizzark's 3rd round pick.

 Analysis: Those few GMs left in the running are proving willing to pay a hefty price for marginal scoring help, and Powder is taking full advantage. A support group has formed for GMs that feel they were taken advantage of. Also, Powder has made so many moves this year that when I click his name to expand his roster, it almost takes up my entire screen.

Transactions

01/16/2011 Free Agent pickup


Wittmen  Drop: Scottie Upshall (PHX).  Add: Brian Boyle (NYR)

Analysis: ...what is this I don't even...

KL Week in Review: Week 14

Instead of the usual bullshit about which teams and players were hot last week, I thought I would discuss which teams are buyers and which are sellers.

In the wake of a week that saw twenty players moved in trades, a few teams have made their priorities clear. The Claassics have moved five players, getting younger and hopefully better for next year. The Dicklas Lidstroms have thrown in the towel and traded for picks. The Powder Rangers admit to being finished, although with Evander Kane returning to the lineup already, they may not be as done as they thought. The Roos know they are done but have so far refused to make any trades to better their position for next year, despite offers being made. Same goes for the Moilers - not biting. Not that I am bitter or anything. The Preydators - has anyone heard from their GM recently? They still have two free agent pickups left.

The buyers are equally known: the darkhorse Teeyotes, the Wittmen and the Fylanders have all made it clear they want the money this year.

Less clear are the intentions of the Schizzarks, Micahleks, Mackhawks, Krugars (notably MIA from a managerial perspective this season), Blues and Flyers. By February 28, it should be very obvious.

Transactions

1/14/2011 TRADE

To the Powder Rangers:

F Evander Kane

D Jaro Spacek

F Peter Mueller
The Wittmen's 2011 3rd Round Pick

To the Wittmen:

F Johan Franzen

D Chris Pronger

F Brendan Morrison

Analysis: This brings the total number of players traded this week to twenty. Panic has set in. Everyone seems to have decided (too early in my opinion) whether they are a buyer or a seller this year. I would like to remind everyone that the trade deadline is more than a month away, and a lot of thing will change between now and then.


Powder is waving the white flag, but just made some very smart moves. He picks up two injured guys with very high potential, and a third round pick (because having his own and mine wasn't enough). I'd have to call him the early favourite for 2011. 

Stefan, I don't know how to put this.... I kind of hope you win this year because afterward I don't think you'll be winning for a while.

Transactions

1/13/2011 TRADE

Dicklas Lidstroms to Teeyotes:
F Patrice Bergeron (BOS)

Teeyotes to Dicklas Lidstroms:
F Steve Sullivan (NSH)
2011 1st round pick
2011 6th round pick

Analysis: My first take on this was that T is paying too high a price. Sullivan is due back at the end of the month and losing the first round pick will hurt, one day.

On the other hand, Teehan is clearly going for it this year, and why not? Sullivan, with 20 points so far, was 8th among the Teeyote's nine scoring roster forwards, so T is bolstering his team where they are weakest with a bona fide keeper in Bergeron. (Well, technically they are weakest at Andrew Cogliano.) And giving up that first round pick will sting less if it's the 15th overall.

Sullivan's chances of making Dickie's protected roster for next season have to be considered slim, so it really comes down to the draft picks. This will be an interesting trade to revisit next year and beyond.

Transactions

01/11/2011  FREE AGENT PICKUP 

G-Phil's Flyers drop F Blake Wheeler (BOS); add F Sergei Kostitsyn (NSH)


Analysis: Blake Wheeler had an incredible rookie season, a big sophomore slump, and hasn't had the kind of rebound season fans hoped for. Why does that sound so familiar?

Sergei Kostitsyn is allegedly only 23 years old. I was surprised by that. He's been around - despite this being his fourth year in the league, he spent 16 games last year in the AHL. This year, the Belarusian Belorussian guy from Belarus is on pace for 48 points.  He had been notably more productive lately, riding a six game, nine point streak until the night Greg picked him up.

Guidelines for Trades Involving Free Agents

Per rule 10 g), any GM can add a free agent for the purpose of completing a trade. This rule is potentially subject to abuse where one or both GMs involved in a trade attempt to acquire free agents, which are normally limited to two per year, while trading worthless players. Not that any of you would try that. Regardless, here are some guidelines to screen your own trades before you send them to the Commissioner for approval.

a) there must be at least one roster player moving in each direction.
b) there must be more roster players moving than free agents. Not an equal number... more.
c) both GMs must be aware of any free agents to be acquired before submitting the trade for approval.

Meeting all of these guidelines does not necessarily mean your trade will be approved. Failing to meet one of these guidelines very likely means your trade will be rejected. 

The trade and free agent pickup deadline is February 28. After that, we will revisit the issue.

Transactions

01/10/2011 TRADE

Winter Claassics to Fylanders:
D Shea Weber
D Zdeno Chara
F Matt D'Agostini (in lieu of Kristian Huselius)
F Mike Knuble

Fylanders to Winter Claassics:
D Michael Del Zotto
D Ryan Whitney
F Brandon Dubinsky
F Chris Kunitz

Analysis: The Winter Claassics continue to shake things up and look to rebuild for next year. There is a lot going on here. Possibly too much for me to comprehend. I think on defence, Fy benefits immediately because Ryan Whitney is out indefinitely. Claassen gets younger and, although Chara and Weber are big names, possibly better in terms of future point potential.

In terms of forwards, Claassen ditches some dead weight in Knuble and improves his outlook with Dubinsky. Other than that... shuffling the deck? Sending a message? Help me out boys.

 

KL Week in Review: Week 13

Thought I forgot, didn't you? I would never rob Teehan of the pleasure of seeing his name at the top for the third consecutive week. Congrats to him and to the Schizzarks who had a huge week.  The Schizzarks' Drew Stafford has been on fire and Patrick Sharp, maintaining a pace most thought impossible, is leaving teammates Toews and Kane in his dust.

In other news, I have been juggling three trade discussions this week and I know other GMs phones have been ringing off the hooks too. I will take this early opportunity to remind everyone that the trade deadline this year is February 28 - early, but still a long way away. No need to sell the farm just yet.

Transactions

01/03/2011   TRADE   

Winter Claassics to Mackhawks:
F Teemu Selanne (ANA)
G Ondrej Pavelec (ATL) [Free agent acquired under exception per email Jan 7]

Mackhawks to Winter Claassics:
F David Perron (STL)
G Cam Ward (CAR)

Analysis: The rebuilding Claassics get younger with Perron, a presently concussed 22 year old French Canadian who has yet to reach his potential. They also lock up a legitimate number one keeper for years in Ward, possibly signalling an end to the Brodeur era for the Claassics.

The Mackhawks are looking to lay claim to the MacKenzie Cup. An optimist would say they just added a former 76-goal scorer that can still put the puck in the net and today sits 23rd in scoring. A pessimist would say they got Teemu Selanne. Teemu Selanne is 40 years old. I think he's still got it, but my one concern is that with Selanne going into Perron's slot, he starts with just seven points, meaning it will be a while before Selanne cracks the scoring roster. 

Either way, with Jonathan Quick as their number one, the Mackhawks don't have to worry if Pavelec doesn't turn out to be a stand up guy (*yuk yuk).

The Case for Larger Scoring Rosters

Since I am so clearly being destroyed this year in the pool, I have been trying to figure out if it was a failure in strategy (partly), the unexpected enormous suckitude of my first two overall picks (largely), or a lack of appreciation of the way the scoring roster would affect things (somewhat).

My strategy was that high end defencemen and goaltending would separate me from the pack more quickly than the many many forwards who score between 40-60 points. This strategy has been exploited beautifully by Teehan who is in the top despite horrendous forward depth. I was confident that I would be able to be do a good job in the bottom half of the draft with my forwards, and have been largely successful in that regard. However, given the way the scoring roster works, that does not help you at all. So, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the standings would be if the scoring roster was 12 forwards, 5 defenceman and 1 goalie. Now, obviously I appreciate that people would have made different choices if this was the scoring roster system, but for the sake of interest, I've done it this way anyways. What I've done is added the three highest non-scoring forwards and highest non-scoring defenceman to each team's overall score:

Team	Rank	Points	Added Points	New Total	New Rank
Micahleks	T - 1	388	53	441	1
Teeyotes	T - 1	388	41	429	T - 6
Jewish Blues	3	384	48	432	4
Flyers	4	383	46	429	T - 6
Mackhawks	5	382	57	439	T - 2
Krugars	6	380	48	428	8
Wittmen	7	379	60	439	T - 2
Powder	8	377	34	411	10
Shizzarks	9	372	48	420	9
Fylanders	10	370	61	431	5
Lidstroms	11	360	29	389	T - 13
Moilers	12	352	57	409	11
Preydators	13	345	44	389	T - 13
Claassics	14	339	65	404	12
Roos	15	297	39	336	15

A couple things worth noting: This doesn't actually affect things quite as much as I had thought it would with some exceptions. Obviously, Fy, Stefan and I benefit the most as the result of a number of strong depth players. Powder and Dickie suffer from the complete lack of support on their benches and Roos continues to be awful.

I think that increasing the scoring roster is something that should be looked at in the future as it makes sense that if we're going to draft all these guys, more of them should count for something. This is particularly true given the currently small number of players who are going to be kept at the end of the year. There is a good chance that the lower scoring players will not count and will not be retained, so why pick them at all?

KL Week in Review: Week 12

The Mackhawks had 47 points with consistent production throughout the lineup - eleven out of fourteen Scoring Roster players netted at least three points. Ryan Clowe, with 34 points, was an outstanding 10th round pick.

The Powder Rangers had 46, riding Stamkos and Kopitar for 15 points. Another Shark, Logan Couture, was Powder's 16th round pick and is battling for the lead in rookie scoring with 27 points. He wasn't even on my radar during the draft.