| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
| Schizzarks | 39.080% | 28.410% | 18.079% | 14.430% | ||||
| Mackhawks | 24.138% | 25.352% | 22.108% | 25.932% | 2.470% | |||
| WBS Parkers | 14.943% | 17.824% | 20.996% | 33.888% | 11.931% | 0.419% | ||
| Milan Micahleks | 9.195% | 11.653% | 15.287% | 25.749% | 33.817% | 4.237% | 0.062% | |
| Valeri Nichushkins | 5.747% | 7.514% | 10.344% | 51.783% | 23.408% | 1.198% | 0.006% | |
| Quebec Rordiques | 3.448% | 4.596% | 6.500% | 71.936% | 13.296% | 0.224% | ||
| Teeyotes | 2.299% | 3.092% | 4.427% | 85.445% | 4.738% | |||
| Joshfrey Krupuls | 1.149% | 1.560% | 2.259% | 95.032% |
Most of you will recall the devastation that befell the Parkers' GM at last year's lottery; he came in with the second best chance of drafting Connor McDavid, but ended up with Dylan Strome at 4th overall. This seemed like an incredibly unlikely result at the time, but leaving aside the improbable outcome of the Kings nabbing Con', you can see from the table above that the chance of Rome falling to 4th last year (refer to Mackhawks' odds this year) was slightly greater than the chances he would finish anywhere else.
I would have liked to have calculated and published these probabilities prior to the keeper deadlines to have encouraged some of the more gambling-prone -minded GMs to attempt to trade up. That possibility still exists between now and the draft, however, if any of you want to engage.
Unfortunately, you will also notice that despite missing the post-season last year, the Patrik Stefans are nowhere to be seen in this lottery odds table. That's because their GM and yours truly succumbed to his vices and rolled the dice on a trade with the Milan Micahleks that saw him acquire Tuukka Rask, Patrick Sharp, and a small pick upgrade later on, but give up the 4th lottery spot without knowing exactly how likely it would be to move up, down, or stay at 4th. The table above reveals a cumulative probability of approximately 36% that the Micahleks will snatch one of Matthews, Laine, or Puljujarvi if they so wish, all touted as franchise players. While I may pretend to celebrate a small victory here, noting that the most likely outcome is for the Micahleks to fall in the order (~38%), he is all but assured a stud in any one of Shane Gostisbehere, Tyler Johnson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, or even Matt Murray.
There are other names I could have thrown up there that I am keeping closer to my chest. And maybe the ones mentioned serve as misdirection. What does seem evident is that this is looking like one of the deepest KL first rounds I can recall. But as always, the task for the GMs that finish picking outside those really coveted spots of the top 2, 3, 4 (or however you see it) will be to avoid the Valtteri Filppulas and Cody Hodgsons of the world.
Where there is potential for some action on the trading block is where there are significant differences in how GMs might value the top x number of draft picks this year, and use the table above to his or her Moira's advantage. Go nuts, guys. See you all on the 10th.
