Monday, October 2, 2017

Draftermath 2017


The draft is such a funny psychological thing. I prepare, identify some players I like, seek out sources to confirm my bias, and then convince myself that everyone must be reading those same sources and that the players will be snatched up immediately. Then people start drafting players who weren't on my radar and I make a pick and get mocked. Anyway, in that spirit, here are my completely subjective opinions on my favourite and least favourite pick from each GM.

Fylanders 

Nice: Timo Meier in Round 6 could be a steal. He's young, fast, and there are openings in San Jose's top 6 (which he may or may not get). A decent risk to take this late in the draft. 

What the: Kaprizov 3rd overall. I'm not going to say this was a "bad" pick, because who knows. Best case, GMFV did the equivalent of drafting Artemi Panarin 3rd overall ... in 2013. I'm guessing he would have been still been available in the 9th round in 2019. 

Rordiques

Nice: Brandon Skjei. With Yandle gone (again) I think he'll emerge as the top offensive contributor on the Rangers blue line. This was maybe his pick from this team that I really enjoyed. 

What the: I imagine that a lot of people will put Petterson in the same boat as Kaprizov, but I'm going with Jonathan Quick here. At least Petterson is contractually capable of being in the NHL next year. But Quick should not be the first goalie taken. The Kings look a lot like the 2012-13 Canucks, in that they continue to get respect more out of intertia than talent. I see continued regression from this team. 

Parkers

Nice: Nothing about GMRBP's draft delighted me more than trying to feed him a beer and watch him nearly vomit. I do think he got good value in Alex Killorn could squeeze in some top 6 minutes on a Lightning team most people expect to rebound. Maybe at 28 we've seen all we're gonna see from him and he's a 40 point player. In the 7th round, it's a reasonable risk/reward pick. 

What the: I just don't know what to say about the Markov pick. Ferociously poor. 

Claassics

Nice: Granlund in the 10th round is likely to be a high value pick that late. The same homerism that got Jannik Hansen drafted a few years in a row when the Canucks were good now causes undervaluing in some players by PTSD ridden Canucks fans. The Canucks might not be as bad as they were last year but they will score more, and I think that Granlund's got a much better shot at a scoring roster slot than the players taken around him.

What the: Ryan Ellis - jesus. Perhaps if GMDC had the wherewithal to pretend that he did it on purpose so that he could trade or IRS Ellis in January, ok. But he was clearly stunned. 

Teeyotes/Dom

Nice: Anders Lee. Dom was high on him, and I think for good reason. Like the Canucks, I don't necessarily think that the Islanders will be great but I think they'll score their goals and Anders Lee should be a beneficiary of that. 

What the: I didn't find any particular pick by GMAT to be particularly exciting or particularly heinous. Marc Andre Fleury, though, as the third goalie picked was a bit odd. Perhaps GMAT overvalued how well Fleury reacted to being the backup in Pittsburgh and did it for locker room harmony. I dunno.

Lidstroms

Nice: Drafting up, generally, is badass af and I support it. Curious to know, however, if any of the Teeyotes, Nickrooshkins, Krupuls, Micahleks or Flyers would have taken Mcavoy if available? I'm guessing not, actually. Mcavoy though should be a stud and 10th overall is a perfectly reasonable spot for him to go. 

What the: I am more confident that the trade up to snag Connor Brown was an utter waste. It is no secret that Connor is skating on a fourth line with Eric Fehr and Matt Martin. He might get some second PP time. No one was reaching for this guy.

Mackhawks

Nice: I really like Matheson in the 8th. Yandle is a bit of a wildcard in terms of how the pairings shake out, but I see a good chance at a 4/5 floor here with some upside, good value this late.

What the: Nothing outrageously poor but I do think Brandon Perlini was a wasteful pick. With all that young talent in Arizona, I'm not sure he's got the stuff to stick on a scoring line. He skated mostly on Arizona's top line last year and put up about a 30 point pace. How much improvement can you expect on that? I say, not much.

Krupuls

Nice: I have a sneaking suspicion that GMJJWK got the guy at 15 that he would have taken at 10. Sheary is the right type of late first round pick, and getting the top pick in the 5th round (Stastny) was good value for nothing. 

What the: My annual strategy of putting pressure on GMJJWK to hurry up with his picks generally yields at least one utter misfire. This year, it was old, injured, and declining Ryan Kesler.

Taylors

Nice: GMTB had a competent first draft, highlighted in my view by Brandon Montour in the third round. With injuries on the blue line, Montour has a chance to establish himself as the offensive contributor on this team. Lots of upside. 

What the: Selected no one with his final pick. I suppose it's a safe move in that you know exactly what you're getting (no one) and you can accurately predict both his worst case (0 points) and best case (0 points). But I really think he could have found more upside, taken a flyer on someone who actually exists.

Schizzarks

Nice: Some may have thought it a reach, but I think that Debrincat in the second round for a rebuilding team is a great pick. He's got a real shot at great minutes on a dangerous team, and won't just be a passenger. Dude's got talent.

What the: Perhaps it was a purely selfless move to give the other GMs a laugh, which if true deserves a stick tap, but I suspect that GMMS selected Adam Henrique on purpose and out of panic. 

P Rangers

Nice: Rating yourself is weird. Sven Baertschi third last was a surprising get for me. He probably won't light the world on fire, but he's a threat to get 45-50 and provides nice support for the bottom of the SR, or as a swap in case of injuries.

What the: I'm kicking myself over the Pominville pick. I had it in my mind to take a pure prospect there (targeting Sam Steel) but thought he'd drop far enough. Alas, here he is. He's got bounceback potential playing with Eichel, but it was too high. NB, I regret nothing about the Vrana pick.

Stefans

Nice: Appears to have taken Jack Daniels first, second and third overall, which set himself up for a very interesting draft. Barbashev late in the fourth was a great pick. He's got a good chance to establish himself this year as a threat, especially with injuries up front, but also has another year of prospect eligibility. 2018-19 should provide him with an even better opportunity. 

What the: GMSW would likely passionately defend the Will Butcher pick, and while I think it was early I'm not going to call it awful. I do think that the Rinne pick was pretty bad, though, as he is trending down, getting old, physically disintegrating, with a very capable backup in the wings.

Micahleks

Nice: The focus on winning now makes for a boring draft, and the lack of willingness to take a risk was evident throughout. I surprisingly think that Daniel Sedin towards the bottom of the second round will prove to be a good pick. The fact that he's much worse than he used to be obscures the fact that he's very likely to score at least 50 points, which is just what GMMC needs.

What the: I read a fair amount about Landeskog, thinking he might be a good value, but the Avalanchesphere has really turned on him. He's a useful player but even on a bad team he's settled into more of a checking role. I think he was a bad first round pick.

Flyers

Nice: Don't believe the hype folks, GMGP doesn't like to lose and he's not trying to. He drafted young but most of the youth he drafted has a shot at making an impact this year. I thought he did well to get Eriksson Ek in the fourth round.

What the: Robin Lehner was a weird goaltending choice. Buffalo will lose a lot of games this year and given the number of very good young players on this team, I expect he'll go into next year's draft without a goalie again. The pick could have been better used.

Kings

Nice: Sam had tough draft position and had to find value. Panik at the end of the 4th round was a low risk, modest reward pick. He showed he can score last year with 44 points. Unlikely to regress from there.

What the: I think we've seen the last of Bobby Ryan on scoring rosters. Ottawa's got a youth movement going, and I think you'll see Ryan get further marginalized despite his playoff performance. He might even be a buyout candidate next offseason. Should not have been drafted.

Nickrooshkins

Nice: I think we're going to see a big step forward for Silfvergberg. His playing style is a type that builds slowly and we'll see him start coming into his own. I wouldn't be surprised to see 55-60 points out of him.

What the: I also think we've seen the end of Hornqvist's fantasy relevance. His injury proneness already made it marginal; the emergence of Guentzel and Sheary are just more nails in the coffin.