Monday, October 3, 2016

Pre-Draft Power Rankings

These rankings simply add my secret source's projections for each team's goalie, top six forwards and top two defencemen. This is the lowest common denominator across all teams, except the Nickrooshkins, who did not keep a goalie - so for them I used the average projection for the top three goalies available in the draft. These totals do not account for prospects, unless you kept a prospect projected to fare better than your 6th forward or 2nd defenceman. 

If you don't like where you rank on this list, keep in mind that last year, after the draft, the Commissioner tallied projections from Cullen, Dobber and LWL and ranked the eventual champion Milan Micahleks 5th, and runner-up Moilers 13th. Coming before the draft, these rankings are no doubt even less accurate as predictors of the final standings, but they may paint a picture - if impressionist - of where each team sits heading into the draft. 

*note the chart starts at 250 to afford us a closer view. Forwards obviously account for much more than this graph suggests at first glance.

Rankings

Strictly mathematical rankings can boring, so here are mine, based largely on the projections above but also factoring in historical success, draft position, squad goals, compete level, my biases, and your biases. These rankings are for this season only.

1. Los Amjawors Kings - 608 
The Burns acquisition puts the Kings in the throne. Anything less than seven consecutive championships from here on would be an unmitigated disaster.

2. G-Phil's Flyers - 593
The scary things is I think the projections for many players on this team are low. Surely one of Saad or Domi or Eberle will hit 60 - if so, watch out.

3. Joshfrey Krupuls - 556
Has five projected 60-point scorers; he'll need at least two to hit 70 to compete. Prospects Fabbri and Theodore should contribute immediately, so he gets bumped up the rankings. 

4. Milan Micahleks - 567
Flawlessly constructed and appallingly underrated, even by me. Giroux gets 90 again. 

5. Patrik Stefans - 557
Smart off-season moves and great draft position make him a threat... to fuck up the draft in spectacular fashion. Gaudreau, if he signs, wins the Art Ross.

6. Powder Rangers - 547
Building on momentum from an excellent draft last year, but as usual roster replete with players only good because of projected linemates.

7. Valeri Nickrooshkins - 540
Solid young team. Drafting or trading for a top goalie is the final piece needed to get this team into the post-season. Needs to avoid Russians.

8. Winter Claassics - 539
Subban, Crawford and five 60-point forwards apparently only gets you so far. Needs Jets Wheeler and Scheifele to take off.

9. Teeyotes / Moilers (tie) - 533
Refusal to meaningfully engage with league not an impediment to popularity or success.

11. Dicklas Lidstroms - 545
Boring and not very good team. I felt the projection was too generous. Should consider rebuild.

12. Fylanders - 514
Is this the year the Fylanders finish outside the top five? Kept four players projected below 50 points. Has no prospects.

13. Quebec Rordiques - 502
There is hope for the future with Barkov, Marner, and others, so long as they are not called up to the Fylanders.

14. Shizzarks - 503
A team in transition, but the future looks bright - the Schizzarks already own the NHL's all-time leader in points-per-game.

15. Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers - 480
This team has to get some lottery luck sometime. GM has smartly refused my annual offers for MacKinnon and finally has some decent prospects in the pipeline.

16. Mackhawks - 462
Not the worst, just the youngest. This GM has a plan and it involves his name on the trophy as soon as McDavid retires.