Draftermath: 15 Thoughts (cont'd)

8. Continuing the predicted finish from best to worst is easy:

Rordiques
Phillipsdelphia Flyers
ToNY Islandersons
Fylanders
W-B/S Parkers
Schizzarks
Dicklas Lidstroms
Victoria Krugars

Actually I have no idea. I respectfully disagree with GMSW's suggestion that the Nickrooshkins had the best draft. I thought the Mackhawks did very well – trading up for Wheeler is the type of bold move that wins championships. There were a surprising number of  40-50 point players available in the late rounds I don't think I got enough of them.

9. Something – probably all the talk about the new prospect system – caused GMs to go overboard on prospects. With nearly every GM having more prospects than they can keep, it's going to be a buyer's market. Only the Nickrooshkins have less than two; most teams have at least four; and the Victoria Krugars lead the way with nine! This summer the Nickrooshkins are going to be able to buy any prospect they want for a 10th round pick.

10. Aside from Barrett Hayton, the prospect I had rated highest that didn't hear his name called was Martin Kaut, drafted 16th overall by Colorado. He's one that traditional scouts and analytics guys agree on. He's in the AHL for now.

11. I'm a big fan of the Potato GM (not GMGP), who ranks draft-eligible players using a very simple formula of points per game, with adjustments for position, age and height. The idea was to establish a baseline that NHL teams, with their vast scouting departments, should be able to beat. Of course, they don't. That formula in 2014 would have told a lot of teams to draft David Pastrnak rather than Michael Dal Colle or Jake Virtanen. I used his ranking for 2018 to select Isac Lundestrom, who went 23rd overall to Anaheim but was ranked 5th overall between Kotkaniemi and Zadina.

12. Here are how many NHL draftees of a given year were taken in the KL draft of the same year:
2011: 6 (including Adam Larsson!)
2012: 9 (including Cody Ceci and Ryan Murray!)
2013: 10 (including Hunter Shinkaruk!)
2014: 6 (all studs)
2015: 10
2016: 13
2017: 14
2018: 17

First overall in the NHL has gone first overall in the KL for the last seven years, other than 2012 when Aaron Ekblad fell to 4th (Sam Reinhart went 1st).

13. It's really tough to identify a best and worst draft pick. I think the W-B/S Parkers and the Hartford Thalers are going to regret passing on Zadina as he could be a point-per-game franchise-altering keeper, whereas Elias Lindholm and Ryan Ellis, we pretty much know what they are. Edit: I wrote this before Zebulon went off for 3 points in 2 games on Calgary's top powerplay unit.

14. The slowest drafters were by far the Valeri Nickrooshkins, then the Joshfrey Krupuls, followed by the G-Phil's Flyers.

15.  The Hartford Thalers wanted a prospect but hadn't had time to do their research. The Milan Micahleks had done the research but wanted nachos and didn't want to make nachos. They worked out a deal that led to GMTB selecting Morgan Frost in the 7th round. According to Byron Bader, he has a 68% chance of being a star in the NHL.

Comparables for Morgan Frost ...

William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Kirill Kaprisov, Nail Yakupov and Dylan Larkin

Philly has got a gem there.

— Byron Bader (@Baderader) September 21, 2018

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Sliding Doors Series: 2018-19 Krugars

Many people believe and have said that, as of submitting his Protected Roster, the Victoria Krugars had among the strongest defence in the league with Carlson (68), Tyson Barrie (57), Dougie Hamitlon (44) and two up- and comers in Shea Theodore and Miro Heiskanen. They also have (according to almost everyone) a decent goalie in Martin Jones.  Their forwards were Bergeron, Couture, Johansen and Hertl (and Tolvanen).

GMJK decided he wanted to stay young (in a vain attempt stave off the march of time) and upgrade his forwards, and so he made a deal with GMMM to swap the 4th overall for the 12th overall and to exchange Couture/Carlson for Ehlers/Seth Jones. Many think GMJK chose the best World Junior team of all time at the draft.

But what if, in a year where the Claassics folded and many GMs went full Dorion rebuild and Kovalchuk joined the league, GMJK had GONE FOR IT!!(tm). Let’s investigate what was available to him at each pick if he had gone for veterans with point production and where it would leave his current roster….

1-4 -  He does what MattMack did with this pick and take Blake Wheeler

1-15 -  Hoffman/Kovalchuk/JVR all available - Smart money has him going with Hoffman here.

2-19 - Kovalchuk still available.

4-49 -  Zuccarello

6-79 -  Turris

6-88 -  Bring back Stastny

7-94 -  Hornqvist

8-106 -  Tyler Johnson

8-109 -  Patrick Marleau

9-124 -  Josh Manson (D)

11-154 - Rasmus Kupari (p)

Does that set of picks and his pre-trade roster with Bergeron/Couture/Johansen and Hertl and 5 D-men and Martin Jones get it done this year for a second KCKL crown? Did GMJK completely underestimate the quality of scoring vets that would be available in the later rounds this year and totally blow an opportunity? Tune in to see!

GMJK might really be kicking myself come this April. Or not. Whatever. 

Draftermath: 15 Thoughts

1. I don't understand the Oliver Wahlstrom pick at all, at 13th overall. Yes, I get that he is the youngest player to ever commit to an NCAA team (he did so in grade 7!). Yes, he was born on the last day ever of my scheduled high school classes (according to my Northwestern Mutual Life calendar). But what makes GMGP think that this 11th overall NHL pick is better than those taken at the big boy podium at 3rd, 4th (see below!), 5th, 8th, 9th, and 10th?

2. Why was 5th overall Barrett Hayton not taken AT ALL? He's one of only 3 players from the 2018 draft class that will make his NHL debut this week! Similar question to the one posed above, but I'll target Lord GMJK with this one: why no love for the hayt, particularly when you keyed in on Kravtsov (9th) and Kupari (20th)? 

3. Did someone tell GMTA that in 3 years, defensemen points will double? Our newest GM now owns 4 of Dobbers top 15 prospect blueliners, among whom only 8 were available at the draft. By adding Hughes, Bouchard, and Brannstrom to Dumba and DeAngelo, I predict Big Byf and Ju Schu will be on the move this season. 

4. What's with all these hards on for Ryan Ellis? He signed a massive $50m contract in the offseason, sure. He's fine, but is he 8th overall fiiiiiiine? Looking at our previous 5 drafts, the first defensemen taken over the age of 25 are as follows: Tobias Enstrom (9th overall, 30 points), Jason Demuhhhhhhs (11th overall, 25 points), Dennis Wideman (7th overall, 19 points), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (15th overall, 28 points), Ryan McDonagh (22nd overall, 29 points). I'll say that Ellis becomes the first to buck the trend of not breaking 30 points, but will set the O/E at 34.5, and declare this a poor use of the 8th overall pick. But thanks again for hosting!

5. The Nickrooshkins are early candidates for the best overall draft, the best single draft pick, and the worst single draft pick! GMNR shored things up better than any other contender, punctuated things with Nick Foligno at 168th overall, but made sure to stay on brand for his loyal Dostoevskyan fan-base by taking Nikolai Goldobin in the 6th round. There is absolutely no chance in hell the streaky Gold-strobin will put up more than 35 points. Over the course of the rest of his NHL career.     

6. Honestly, nobody makes a better BBQ chicken pizza than Panago. I know GMSJ agrees. Yeah, you.

7. I'm not certain this was intentional, but my hot take is that after filling out his PR forwards, getting his top prospect, and solidifying his back-up goalie, the reigning champion GMMC focused on GMSW with his next three picks. Vatanen could steal PP time from Butcher, while Saad and Okposo could ride the highs of Kane and Skinner and neutralize any advantage for the Stefans. 

8. So without further ado, here is the predicted order 1st through 7th, with a nod to Thalers (how are we actually spelling this?) for their first playoff berth.

Valeri Nickrooshkins

Patrik Stefans

Milan Micahleks

Los Amjawors Kings

Mackhawks

Hartford Thalers

Powder Rangers