Leaps of Faith, and a bunch of other random tables

In what is my final blogpost as Commissioner, I provide a few considerations to chew on with our trade deadline less than a week away. All of them are motivated by the question that I keep asking myself with respect to the direction I decided to take my team this season: what the hell have I done?!

We're 60 days into 2016, and I thought it would be insightful to first look at which NHLers are performing the best in the calendar year. As a testament to this season's unpredictability, look who finds himself at the top:

PLAYER	KL Team	Pts	What the?
Joe Thornton, C	Fylanders/Claassics	31	???
Evgeny Kuznetsov, C	Moilers	31	?
Sidney Crosby, C	Kings	29
Patrick Kane, RW	Lidstroms	29
Ryan Getzlaf, C	Micahleks	28
Kris Letang, D	Stefans	27
Erik Karlsson, D	Flyers	26
Anze Kopitar, C	Krupuls	25
Alex Ovechkin, LW	Stefans	24
Jordan Eberle, RW	Flyers	24
Brayden Schenn, C	Rordiques	24	??
Jordan Staal, C	Fylanders	24	???
Jakub Voracek, LW	Nickrooshkins	24
Nicklas Backstrom, C	Fylanders	24
Johnny Gaudreau, LW	Stefans	23
Steven Stamkos, C	Rangers	23
Artemi Panarin, LW	Rangers	23
Brad Marchand, LW	Micahleks	22	?
John Tavares, C	Teeyotes	22
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D	Moilers	22
Filip Forsberg, C	Moilers	21
Benoit Pouliot, LW	Stefans	21	??
Wayne Simmonds, RW	Mackhawks	21
Corey Perry, RW	Lidstroms	21
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D	FA/Rangers	21	???
Andre Burakovsky, LW	Rangers	21
Pavel Datsyuk, C	Claassics	21
Claude Giroux, C	Micahleks	21
Ryan Kesler, C	Stefans/Rordiques	21
P.K. Subban, D	Claassics	21
T.J. Brodie, D	Lidstroms	20
Jussi Jokinen, LW	Kings	20	?
Shayne Gostisbehere, D	RFA	20	???
Blake Wheeler, RW	Claassics	20
Jonathan Toews, C	Rordiques	20
Joe Pavelski, C	Fylanders	20
Nikita Kucherov, RW	Micahleks	20
Logan Couture, C	Stefans	19
Jaromir Jagr, RW	Rangers/Moilers	19
Shane Doan, RW	FA	19	??
Kyle Okposo, RW	Krupuls	19
Justin Williams, RW	Teeyotes	19
Tyson Barrie, D	Krupuls	19
Brandon Dubinsky, C	Kings	19	?
Patric Hornqvist, RW	Rangers	19

After a quick scan of the list, it comes as little surprise that the Fylanders, Stefans, and Rangers have had the strongest past two months in the KL. And it comes as tragic fate that the Stefans declared their playoff aspirations early in the new year, but the teams holding down the 8th and 9th spots at the time were precisely the Fylanders and Rangers. It is all the more tragic that the Stefans' GM still believes he has a viable chance at the post-season.

Fylanders	245
Patrik Stefans	243
Powder Rangers	241
Moilers	234
Milan Micahleks	232
G-Phil's Flyers	227
Dicklas Lidstroms	222
Teeyotes	222
Los Amjawors Kings	219
Winter Claassics	216
Joshfrey Krupuls	214
Quebec Rordiques	203
Valeri Nickrooshkins	197
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers	191
Mackhawks	181
Schizzarks	147

What's remarkable to me is just how much some teams have battled back into being in the thick of things (not mine), while others that looked to be sure playoff locks, and money contenders even, are falling with acceleration. I haven't run any historical numbers, and I'm not going to, but it seems to me that by the end of December, gaps between our league's best and worse teams only widen, outside of perhaps one or two exceptions. This season appears to be a bit different.

Continuing to be driven by my own self-loathing, I thought to ask a question I asked near the end of last season (you may recall a video blog post): what if the KL didn't allow trades or any other acquisitions? I compiled the rosters as they were post-draft and ran the numbers last Friday as if this league were truly as "set it and forget it" format. I found sooommmmme comfort seeing the two-way battle at the top of that universe. 

Moilers	590
Milan Micahleks	585
Dicklas Lidstroms	562
G-Phil's Flyers	562
Powder Rangers	555
Patrik Stefans	553
Fylanders	551
Los Amjawors Kings	546
Quebec Rordiques	533
Joshfrey Krupuls	532
Teeyotes	520
Mackhawks	502
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers	498
Winter Claassics	481
Valeri Nickrooshkins	475
Schizzarks	418

It is worth noting that the "would be" totals for the Flyers and the Lidstroms are exactly what they are in our present day reality. If only they had found some moxie... it's not too late, guys!

In the process of calculating the numbers above, I had to combine subrosters of keepers, draftees, and prospects, so just for fun, I provide you with the totals, listed by keeper strength:

Team	Keepers	Draftees	Prospects	Total
Dicklas Lidstroms	467	200	22	689
Fylanders	459	201	16	676
Milan Micahleks	442	273	0	715
G-Phil's Flyers	430	215	41	686
Patrik Stefans	413	249	27	689
Moilers	412	365	4	781
Quebec Rordiques	395	253	62	710
Joshfrey Krupuls	391	151	15	557
Teeyotes	391	229	42	662
Los Amjawors Kings	383	261	28	672
Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers	362	185	68	615
Mackhawks	355	161	51	567
Winter Claassics	341	228	51	620
Powder Rangers	323	342	58	723
Valeri Nickrooshkins	316	276	23	615
Schizzarks	313	171	8	492

Granted, their draft numbers are a bit skewed by both needing two goalies, but the Moilers and Rangers absolutely dominated us on October 4th, and it wasn't even close. The Moilers' draft is outperforming SIX keeper rosters, while hilariously, the Rangers' draftees have outperformed HIS OWN keepers.

One final observation I make is the contributions from prospects. Neither of our two front-runners have gotten anything out of their protected two in Pouliot and Nylander (though I guess he fetched some trade value, which could ultimately prove to be the difference). But more to the point, I really don't think we have the system right yet. The numbers above appear to belie the presumption of any advantage in carrying protected players into the draft with the hope that they "break-out" at precisely the right time and meaningfully contribute to a KL championship.  

And with all of that not-so-helpful information, do as you may to eff things up for yourself in the week ahead!

Shame

As requested by (sort of), and not directed at, the Commish:

My apologies to Stef for being a snotty adolescent about the blog post. Everyone feel free to make me offers for my last add/drop which I will ignore.

The Fair Market Value of an Add/Drop

This blog post is dedicated to my friends, the GMs of the Teeyotes and the Patrik Stefans.

The recent kerfuffle over the trade of an add/drop gave me reason to wonder: is there a discernible market price for an add/drop? Does it fluctuate throughout the season and has it changed over the years? What factors affect it?

There is limited data. In my unscientific analysis I've included all transactions in which add/drop(s) and pick(s) were traded, but no other players changed hands. We can only go back to the 2012-13 season when we started allowing GMs to trade add/drops. There are a total of 10 such transactions. 

In the 2012-13 season, only the Fylanders "purchased" add/drops for draft picks. The price was not steep. On trade deadline day, the Fylanders traded their 5th rounder for the St. Jewish Blues' 6th rounder and two add/drops! They also traded a ninth rounder previously acquired from another team (no doubt as a throw-in) for an add/drop and the Mackhawk's 9th rounder. A very low baseline price was established.

By this standard, the Teeyotes actually fleeced the Fylanders a few days ago by netting an 8th for a 10th. Of course the 2012-13 trades were made on trade deadline day, where I suppose the value of an add/drop that is not going to be used approaches zero. Still, I would think in either year a competitor, if approached, might have paid more to keep those add/drops out of the Fylander's hands. Alternatively, the swaps could have been used to aid in tanking (if the team is not above tanking) rather than to move up a handful of picks in the crapshoot of the 8th, 9th and 10th rounds.

In 2013-2014, the Powder Rangers established an entirely new benchmark when they gave up their 2nd rounder for the Joshfrey Krupuls' 5th rounder and two add/drops. This happened in November, with the P-Rangers facing a season-ending injury to Stamkos and having already used their two swaps to acquire Jiri "too loose" Tlusty and Josh "not hard enough" Harding. So perhaps the price is higher earlier in the season and when the GM has limited options. 

On trade deadline day that season, we saw the G-Phil's Flyers give up their 4th-round pick for the Patrik Stefans' 6th and add/drop. This was still significantly more than the Fylanders paid last year, but Greg had a goalie injury to address and he was in it to win it (which he did). 

In 2014-15, the Teeyotes established a middle-ground of sorts in January when they sold one add/drop to the Dicklas Lidstroms for a 6th round pick, with his own 9th going the other way. Eleven days later he sold his other add/drop to the Joshfrey Krupuls for a 6th round pick with no pick going the other way, so the price had increased in line with Keynesian economic theory. Both the Dicklas Lidstroms and the Joshfrey Krupuls were going for it and they finished 1st and 4th respectively. 

In late February that year, the Dicklas Lidstroms were able to pry an add/drop from the Winter Claassics for a slightly lower price: a 7th round pick. At the trade deadline, in what I believe is the only recorded instance of a competitive team trading an add/drop to a tanking team, the Michaleks acquired the WBS Parkers' 9th round pick. The WBS Parkers were able to finish last, and were rewarded with... Dylan Strome?

So far in 2015-16, in order to acquire an add/drop in early January we saw the Los Amjawors Kings give up a 7th round pick, and a few days ago we saw the Fylanders give an 8th for a 10th. 

The only tentative conclusions I am prepared to make at this point are:

1) the price of an add/drop tends to peak early in the season and drop as the deadline approaches. This makes sense as long as there are ample teams with swaps remaining that don't plan to use them.  If we see a year where many teams are competing to make the playoffs and there are few swaps remaining, the price of an add/drop may actually rise toward the deadline. 

2) The Fylanders always pay less than any other team. It's kind of like Argentina's economy where there is the official "blue market" exchange rate and an unofficial "black market" exchange rate. While the Fylanders deal in dollars, the rest of us deal in pesos. 

Self-serving PS: I have no more add/drops this year and would like one in my back pocket, so GMs, feel free to come to me before you accept an offer.