Monday, February 29, 2016

Leaps of Faith, and a bunch of other random tables

In what is my final blogpost as Commissioner, I provide a few considerations to chew on with our trade deadline less than a week away. All of them are motivated by the question that I keep asking myself with respect to the direction I decided to take my team this season: what the hell have I done?!

We're 60 days into 2016, and I thought it would be insightful to first look at which NHLers are performing the best in the calendar year. As a testament to this season's unpredictability, look who finds himself at the top:

PLAYERKL TeamPtsWhat the?
Joe Thornton, CFylanders/Claassics31???
Evgeny Kuznetsov, CMoilers31?
Sidney Crosby, CKings29
Patrick Kane, RWLidstroms29
Ryan Getzlaf, CMicahleks28
Kris Letang, DStefans27
Erik Karlsson, DFlyers26
Anze Kopitar, CKrupuls25
Alex Ovechkin, LWStefans24
Jordan Eberle, RWFlyers24
Brayden Schenn, CRordiques24??
Jordan Staal, CFylanders24???
Jakub Voracek, LWNickrooshkins24
Nicklas Backstrom, CFylanders24
Johnny Gaudreau, LWStefans23
Steven Stamkos, CRangers23
Artemi Panarin, LWRangers23
Brad Marchand, LWMicahleks22?
John Tavares, CTeeyotes22
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, DMoilers22
Filip Forsberg, CMoilers21
Benoit Pouliot, LWStefans21??
Wayne Simmonds, RWMackhawks21
Corey Perry, RWLidstroms21
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, DFA/Rangers21???
Andre Burakovsky, LWRangers21
Pavel Datsyuk, CClaassics21
Claude Giroux, CMicahleks21
Ryan Kesler, CStefans/Rordiques21
P.K. Subban, DClaassics21
T.J. Brodie, DLidstroms20
Jussi Jokinen, LWKings20?
Shayne Gostisbehere, DRFA20???
Blake Wheeler, RWClaassics20
Jonathan Toews, CRordiques20
Joe Pavelski, CFylanders20
Nikita Kucherov, RWMicahleks20
Logan Couture, CStefans19
Jaromir Jagr, RWRangers/Moilers19
Shane Doan, RWFA19??
Kyle Okposo, RWKrupuls19
Justin Williams, RWTeeyotes19
Tyson Barrie, DKrupuls19
Brandon Dubinsky, CKings19?
Patric Hornqvist, RWRangers19

After a quick scan of the list, it comes as little surprise that the Fylanders, Stefans, and Rangers have had the strongest past two months in the KL. And it comes as tragic fate that the Stefans declared their playoff aspirations early in the new year, but the teams holding down the 8th and 9th spots at the time were precisely the Fylanders and Rangers. It is all the more tragic that the Stefans' GM still believes he has a viable chance at the post-season.

Fylanders245
Patrik Stefans243
Powder Rangers241
Moilers234
Milan Micahleks232
G-Phil's Flyers227
Dicklas Lidstroms222
Teeyotes222
Los Amjawors Kings219
Winter Claassics216
Joshfrey Krupuls214
Quebec Rordiques203
Valeri Nickrooshkins197
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers191
Mackhawks181
Schizzarks147
What's remarkable to me is just how much some teams have battled back into being in the thick of things (not mine), while others that looked to be sure playoff locks, and money contenders even, are falling with acceleration. I haven't run any historical numbers, and I'm not going to, but it seems to me that by the end of December, gaps between our league's best and worse teams only widen, outside of perhaps one or two exceptions. This season appears to be a bit different.

Continuing to be driven by my own self-loathing, I thought to ask a question I asked near the end of last season (you may recall a video blog post): what if the KL didn't allow trades or any other acquisitions? I compiled the rosters as they were post-draft and ran the numbers last Friday as if this league were truly as "set it and forget it" format. I found sooommmmme comfort seeing the two-way battle at the top of that universe. 

Moilers590
Milan Micahleks585
Dicklas Lidstroms562
G-Phil's Flyers562
Powder Rangers555
Patrik Stefans553
Fylanders551
Los Amjawors Kings546
Quebec Rordiques533
Joshfrey Krupuls532
Teeyotes520
Mackhawks502
W-Benham/Scranton Parkers498
Winter Claassics481
Valeri Nickrooshkins475
Schizzarks418
It is worth noting that the "would be" totals for the Flyers and the Lidstroms are exactly what they are in our present day reality. If only they had found some moxie... it's not too late, guys!

In the process of calculating the numbers above, I had to combine subrosters of keepers, draftees, and prospects, so just for fun, I provide you with the totals, listed by keeper strength:

TeamKeepersDrafteesProspectsTotal
Dicklas Lidstroms46720022689
Fylanders45920116676
Milan Micahleks4422730715
G-Phil's Flyers43021541686
Patrik Stefans41324927689
Moilers4123654781
Quebec Rordiques39525362710
Joshfrey Krupuls39115115557
Teeyotes39122942662
Los Amjawors Kings38326128672
Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers36218568615
Mackhawks35516151567
Winter Claassics34122851620
Powder Rangers32334258723
Valeri Nickrooshkins31627623615
Schizzarks3131718492

Granted, their draft numbers are a bit skewed by both needing two goalies, but the Moilers and Rangers absolutely dominated us on October 4th, and it wasn't even close. The Moilers' draft is outperforming SIX keeper rosters, while hilariously, the Rangers' draftees have outperformed HIS OWN keepers.

One final observation I make is the contributions from prospects. Neither of our two front-runners have gotten anything out of their protected two in Pouliot and Nylander (though I guess he fetched some trade value, which could ultimately prove to be the difference). But more to the point, I really don't think we have the system right yet. The numbers above appear to belie the presumption of any advantage in carrying protected players into the draft with the hope that they "break-out" at precisely the right time and meaningfully contribute to a KL championship.  

And with all of that not-so-helpful information, do as you may to eff things up for yourself in the week ahead!

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