KL Week in Review: Week 11

With Friday and Saturday off for Christmas, this week was abbreviated. Still, the Teeyotes managed to earn 32 points, vaulting them into first place for the first time this season. Congrats, T.

Leading the way were Malkin and Hiller with seven points each, Zetterberg with five and Byfuglien with four. Is Malkin finally healthy and ready to return to 2008-09 form? When will Byfuglien remember he is talentless goon?

Enjoy watching your future fantasy all-stars at the World Juniors and have a great winter break everybody.

Transactions

December 22 was a day that will forever alter the course of KL history. Three teams in contention agreed to a blockbuster trade involving three teams, nine players and two draft picks. Another team added a free agent and almost derailed the trade. Details below.

12/22/2010   FA    Mackhawks    drop: D Jamie McBain (CAR)    add: D Dan Girardi (NYR)

Analysis: McBain has 9 points in 32 games this season - definitely a disappointment after last season where he surprised with 10 points in 14 games. Girardi has 19 in 35 - remarkable because in three complete seasons with the Rangers, he has never scored more than 28 points.  And that was his first year - he's only gotten worse since. 

Reasonable minds will differ, but I'm not seeing eye to eye with the Mack here. I think McBain will have a strong second half, and Girardi's first 35 games, like the Rangers' success, will prove a fluke. McBain is only 22 as well. But in this pool, a couple of points can make a huge difference in the standings, so there is a lot of incentive for GMs to make roster tweaks even if the potential gains are small.

Notably, this free agent pickup request arrived exactly nine minutes before a blockbuster three way trade request (below) arrived, the last step of which involved picking up Dan Girardi. Things almost derailed before Girardi was substituted for Brett Clark.

12/22/2010   TRADE   

Dicklas Lidstroms to Calgary Wittmen:
F Ryan Kesler (VAN)
G Antti Niemi (SJS)
5th round pick 2011

Calgary Wittmen to Dicklas Lidstroms:
F Jason Spezza (OTT)
G Miikka Kiprusoff (CGY)
4th round pick 2011

Dicklas Lidstroms to Powder Rangers:
G Kiprusoff
F JP Dumont [dropped for free agent F Teddy Purcell (TBL)]
D Michal Rozsival (NYR) [dropped for free agent D Brett Clark (TBL)]

Powder Rangers to Dicklas Lidstroms:
G Michal Neuvirth (WSH)
F Patrice Bergeron (BOS)
D Ed Jovanoski (PHX)

Analysis: Where to begin? This is by far the biggest trade the KL has ever seen. I hesitate to do a critical analysis because obviously each GM thinks they made a smart trade. The Wittmen I think do really well here to pick up Kesler (75+ points). They had to give up Kipper but when Kipper is your second goalie that's not a problem. Team Dicklas made a significant upgrade in goaltending to get Neuvirth. With Spezza they have a home team player to cheer for - likewise for the Wittmen with Kesler. And the Powder Puffs finally get a consistent (if despised) goalie who will get a few shutouts. Everybody wins. Is that possible? If you believe in miracles. Christmas miracles.

Ten Weeks

It's been ten weeks. I wanted to see who was climbing the ranks, who was falling, who was consistent, and who was all over the place. Fifteen lines on a graph is difficult to comprehend, so I clustered them into several graphs. Each compares two or three teams and their rank at the end of each week.

The first one I call "Like Looking in a Mirror":

The next one I call "All Over the Map"; or "A Child Printing 'W's":

This is my personal favourite. I call it "Wall Street 1929"; or "Men's Synchronized Dive Team":

This one is simply called "Contenders":

"Hockey Stick and Distant Mountain Range"

Here we have "The Long Road to the Top"; or "Reason for Hope":

Finally, I call this one "When Two ECGs Meet in the Night"; or "Bromance in the Pool"

Week in Review: Week 10

Things have finally settled down. Order has been restored. Up is up and down is down again. This is probably how things will remain the rest of the year.

In all seriousness, the Micahleks somehow have three of the league's top twelve scorers: Brad Richards (6th), Ryan Getzlaf (10th) and Matt Duchene (11th). But the best week belonged to the Dicklas Lidstroms, who made a push to reach 7th place, their highest ranking of the season to date (at least on a Sunday). The Dicklas wonders were led by Henrik Lundqvist and the surprising Rangers, as well as red-hot Ryan Kesler.

They only two players with more fantasy points than Lundqvist are the Shizzarks' Carey Price with 56 and the Preydators' Sidney Crosby, riding a 20-game point streak to 54 points. Much like Crosby's real life team, his fantasy team is not giving him a lot of support. He has more than double the points of the next best skaters, Mike Cammalleri and Dan Cleary.

A number of trade rumors are going around the league. I won't mention any names but apparently one team has been aggressively, and sometimes humourously, shopping around a defenceman who had 11 points in his first seven games (then six in his last 21). A number of other trades have been discussed but I think people hesitate to do anything that could eventually invite merciless ripping from their peers. And there has been plenty of ripping over the two trades conducted to date. Including the observation that, had the Schizzarks kept the Moilers' Kevin Shattenkirk instead of picking up Matt Taormina, they would be leading the league right now.

Transactions

12/16/2010   FA    G-Phil's Flyers    drop: D Cam Barker (MIN)    add: D Kevin Shattenkirk (COL)

Analysis: In going after Shattenkirk, Greg has a made a move I wondered why nobody else had made yet. Normally, adding a free agent under 20 is strictly prohibited. However, rule 10(d) states, "if a player is dropped, notwithstanding subsection a), the dropped player becomes an eligible free agent, regardless of age." Shattenkirk was shrewdly drafted by the Moilers, but dropped October 29 - five days before he played his first NHL game.  (In the Moilers' defence, there was no way to see it coming. Moreover, Mo dropped him to facilitate a trade that, bizarrely, has worked out in her favour.)

Since then, Shattenkirk has been absolutely tearing it up for the Avs: 17 points in 20 games. That ranks the 2007 first-round pick third among NHL defencemen in points per game (just ahead of teammate John-Michael Liles). Barker, meanwhile, has underwhelmed with just four points in 26 games this year.

Shatty will have to add at least six points to Barker's four before he'll crack Greg's scoring roster. Barring injuries, there is no doubt that will happen, and I'd venture that come next September, Greg will be giving the Shatster serious consideration for the protected roster.

Is this the move that puts G-Phil's Flyers over the top?

KL Week in Review: Week 9

KL Week in Review: Week 8

The mighty Blues have fallen after holding the top spot since week 2, and we have a new leader - the Fylanders. The pool is just ridiculously close. Other than Roos, nobody is more than four points behind the person in front of them.

Congrats to J-Kru, whose Ryan Miller is finally starting to look like a 2nd round draft pick - 14 points this week on two shutouts. The Irish cooled off after their blazing start to the week, tying the Moilers for 2nd with 39 points. GPhil's Flyers also put in a solid performance with 38. All of the above teams had at least one shutout this week.

Food for thought

What a first round draft pick might look like

I wanted to know what calibre of players will be available in next year's draft. I made this list assuming everyone keeps their top 6-7 forwards, 2-3 defencemen, and one goalie, and then listing the top players that wouldn't make the list (putting myself in the shoes of the GM to recognize injuries and future growth). It's not a science but it should give us a rough idea of what kind of players will be available.

Forwards: Saku Koivu, David Booth, Bendan Morrow, Matt Moulson, Sam Gagner, Olli Jokinen, Brian Gionta, Chris Kunitz, Patrice Bergeron, Logan Couture, Justin Williams, Ales Hemsky, Tomas Holmstrom, Tim Connolly, Blake Comeau, David Jones, Ryan Smyth, Andrew Ladd, Andrew Brunette, Stephen Weiss, Ray Whitney, Michael Ryder, Alex Kovalev, Tuomo Ruutu, Scott Hartnell, Matt Stajan, Alex Steen, Valtteri Filppula, Pascal Dupuis, Devin Setoguchi, Ryan Malone, Matthew Lombardi, Steve Sullivan, Jason Pominville, Troy Brouwer, Dustin Penner.

Defencemen: Erik Johnson, Paul Martin, James Wisniewski, Ed Jovanoski, Braydon Coburn, Dennis Siedenberg, Zach Bogosian, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Joni Pitkanen, Dennis Wideman, Tom Gilbert, Ian White, Jay Bouwmeester, Kurtis Foster, Ryan Suter, Victor Hedman, Jordan Leopold, Dion Phaneuf, Brent Seabrook, Marek Zidlicky, Andy Greene, Kimmo Timonen.

Goalies: Mikka Kiprusoff, Chris Mason, Marty Turco, Jonathan Bernier, Niklas Backstrom, Steve Mason, Kari Lehtonen, Cam Ward, Tomas Vokoun, Dan Ellis, Antii Niemi, Jonas Hiller.

Analysis: It's going to be tough to go from last place to first by picking up Ryan Malone. There might be a good undrafted 2010 rookie available, like Jeff Skinner. Or a 2011 rookie - but it's less likely he will make an impact on your roster right away. Maybe keeping ten players is too much? I would be open to considering something in the seven to nine range - just putting it out there.

Standing Room.

The problem with standings in this league is that they only tell part of the story - only the total number of points accumulated at a given moment in time. Its the way most people measure their progress against other GMs, but its a shitty measure of overall team performance, as teams have not played the same number of games. Present point totals only account for a single slice in time, but a better evaluation of performance requires us to look to past patterns and future estimates. Our pool gives us some handy tools to do just that.

Man-Games Remaining
In terms of the future, the Carmada and my Flyers have 823 and 822 estimated games remaining, compared with the Fylander's 803. 20 points is actually the lowest spread I have seen. Naturally the spread varies from day to day - I have seen it as high as 35 man-games.

It appears that our pool assumes that goalies will play every single game and treats days off the same as games missed due to injury - as a "Man-Game Missed". In that respect, teams with clear-cut, workhorse starting goaltenders have a man-game advantage, the true value of which can only be determined at the end of the year.

In any event, it is an important measure in determining what room you have to play "catch-up" on your opponents and is indicative of how artificially low or high your current standing is.

Man-Games Played
Man-Games Played are a different measure than Man-Games Remaining since they are backward-looking. Currently, Micah has the fewest games played, while the Preydators have the most. Fy has the second most Man-Games-Played, which, coupled with the fewest Man-Games-Remaining, suggests that his current 3rd place point total is inflated by a temporary scheduling advantage.

Man-Games Played is interesting, but it is most helpful as the basis for the best tool we have at our disposal to evaluate our teams...

Point-Per-Game
In light of the man-games remaining problem, the ranking you get when you sort by point per game is, in my view, a far superior indicator of overall team performance to date. Its still pretty early in the season and while a couple shutouts or Pierre Mcguire MONSTER PERFORMANCES™ can cause some significant changes, we are more than a quarter of the way into the season and starting to settle into some scoring patterns. Teams with a lot of slow starts might move up, or injuries might push a team down, but we aren't likely to see a 0.75 PPG team drop to below the Roos' 0.63 (or Roos to climb to 0.80 PPG, for that matter - hey Roos, looking to dump anyone on your roster yet? Email me).

In that respect, PPG is a far better metric than current point totals since it erases benefit of the total number of games played in terms of past performance, and insofar as past performance is predictive of future performance, it helps us in estimating our year-end totals.

In terms of actual point production, the Manitoba Roos is still the worst team in the league - but there are some surprises. Illustrating the benefit of a 20 man-game lead over the Carmada, the 3rd place Fylanders are actually the 3rd-worst point-producing team, sitting 13th place in terms of point-per-game production. Conversely, the 7th place Carmada has the best point production overall.

Another example is the 0.75 PPG production of my 12th place team, tied with the 13th place Dicklas Lidstroms. Dickie and I are both tied with the 2nd place Calgary Wittmen. In my view, the PPG standings suggest that the Dicklas Lidstroms and my Flyers are artificially low in the standings while the Wittmen are artificially high.

In any event, none of these are perfect measurements but are all better than the raw point totals. When you look at your position in the standings (and despair or rejoice, depending), click the "Man Games" tab to get a better sense of how you actually stack up against the competition.

The Best Defence is a Good Offence

In an effort to integrate more bar charts into my life, I've analyzed the top four defencemen (i.e., the ones that count on the SR) for each team.

I believe this chart speaks for itself. The red bars represent the bottom four teams in the pool. The green bars represent the top four teams in the pool. The blue bars represent excel not giving a shit about my Christmas theme.

I didn't do a graph for percentage of total points contributed by defencemen, but I can tell you it ranges from 12% (Dickie) to 32% (Teehan), with a mean and median of 20%.

I don't think there is any correlation so far between good defence and overall pool performance. For example, why are the Irish so good? Dustin Byfuglien and John-Michael Liles each have over 20 points, that's why. They were taken in the 11th and 9th rounds, respectively.

J-Kru has been steadily climbing the overall standings and I like his top-4: Visnovsky, Boyle, Pitkanen and Wideman. On the other hand, the W-Claassics' sexy top-4 of Green, Chara, Subban and Weber have put in a disappointing quarter-mark performance. Finally, pool leader K-Blat's top-4 boasts no defenceman over 11 points (but also none under ten).

Conclusion: I have wasted 1.5 potentially billable hours.

KL Week in Review: Week 7

The top eight teams averaged 25.5 points this week, while the bottom seven averaged 31.1. The Moilers, Preydators and Dicklas Lidstroms all had great weeks.

Hottest forward: Sidney Crosby, Preydators, 7 points.
Hottest defenceman: Six players with 4 points.
Hottest goalie: Marc-Andre Fleury, Fylanders, 11 points.

Name Changes

A theme for KL team names has emerged that generally involves portmanteauing or bastardizing the name of an NHL team to include some element of the GM's name (or ethnoreligious identity). Three teams represent a slight variation on the theme: one is named after an NHL event (Winter Claassics), one after a player (Dicklas Lidstroms), and one after an AHL team (Manitoba Roos). Still, four teams have not lent themselves easily to the theme.

I've never liked Wittmen's Hitmen or J-Kru's A-Crew, but they were the best I could come up with at the time. Dipping into the pool of WHL teams past and present (thank you hockeydb.com and dreary Saturday mornings), I've come up with something a bit better. Stefan's team will now be simply the Calgary Wittmen, and Josh's team will be the Victoria Krugars. 

Okay, you're not rolling on the floor laughing, but at least they fit the theme now. Josh's name would be funnier if he were a striking 40-year old woman in her sexual prime.

That leaves two teams remaining - the Fightin' Irish and the Carmada (a strange coincidence as my surname supposedly derives from the Spanish armada's invasion of Ireland). I don't mind Teehan's but my whole name just does not lend itself to nicknames. Never has. Bruce gave me the Carmada moniker in a hockey pool years ago and it stuck.

I welcome suggestions.

Depth Sounding

The Scoring Roster (SR) comprises the top nine forwards, four defencemen and one goalie from each team. If an unfortunate injury wipes out a player on your SR, another player will have to step up to fill the void. Listed below is the top non-SR forward, defenceman and goaltender from each team, to illustrate the kind of depth each team can draw from should the unthinkable happen. I found it unproductive to rank the teams - too many close calls and too much unpredicatability - but they are very loosely in some kind of order of deepest to shallowest. (Numbers are as of Wednesday morning.)

Fylanders
MacArthur - 10
Morris - 4
Fleury - 12
Total: 26
This team some serious depth, with Lecavalier and Van Riemsdyk not even breaking the SR and Fleury ready to overtake Turco shortly.

St Jewish Blues
Gaborik - 9
Demers/Johnson - 5
Mason - 12
Total: 26
Gaborik will soon join the SR.

Mackhawks
Horcoff - 12
Markov - 3
Ward - 18
Total: 33
Deep like the Mariana Trench at forward; solid in goal.

Carmada
Benn - 10
Bogosian - 3
Mason - 21
Total: 34
Fuckin' Bogosian... lets me down every year.

Schizzarks
Langenbrunner - 9
Bieksa - 3
Backstrom - 21
Total: 33
Injuries to Parise and others have hurt this otherwise very deep team.

Wittman's Hitmen
Jokinen/Yip - 8
Tyutin - 3
Kiprusoff - 24
Total: 35
Stacked in net.

Powder Rangers
Zajac - 9
Kubina - 6
Bernier - 9
Total:  24
Only real weakness is goaltending. Seven of Bernier's nine points are from when the slot was occupied by Tim Thomas.

G-Phil's Flyers
Wheeler/Zherdev - 8
Suter - 4
Rinne - 22
Total: 34
Nobody too flashy on the depth chart but G-Phil does not need to sweat injuries.

Preydators
Setoguchi/Galiardi - 6
Ference - 2
Ellis - 20
Total: 28
Deep like Jersey Shore.

Fightin' Irish
Pominville - 4
Zidlicky - 8
Anderson - 8
So much depth on defence, T should consider shopping around Mark Streit (when is he back?) or Marek Zidlicky for some forward depth.

Winter Claassics
Smyth - 12
Hamhuis - 3
Nobody - 0
Possibly the most depth up front of any team, despite the fact DC used all his high picks on Brodeur and establishing the best top 4 defence core in the league. The lack of a backup goalie hurts.

J-kru's A-crew
Doan/Bolland - 4
Nobody - 0
Miller - 12
Total: 16
Miller will improve, but there is a real lack of scoring depth on this team.

Moilers
Hall - 9
Bouwmeester - 4
Nobody - 0
Total: 13
I still like this team, although losing Shattenkirk in a trade hurt them (more on that later).

Dicklas Lidstroms
Michalek - 8
Vlasic - 0
Niemi - 4
Marc Savard cleared for contact yesterday.

Manitoba Roos
Kovalchuk - 10
Ballard - 0
Nobody - 0
Decent depth at forward but the drop off after his top four defencemen is ten points, and there is no backup for Niittymaki.

KL Week in Review: Week 6

Congratulations to the San Jose Shizzarks - the first KL team to crack 50 pizzoints in a week. Two shutouts from Carey Price vaulted him past Halak and Neuvirth as the league's most valuable goaltender. Not bad for a 16th round pizzick.

The Shizzarks also got 6 points from slow starting third rounder Rick Nash, including a hat trick last night.

Marty St. Louis had the biggest skater contribution, chipping in 9 points for J-Kru's A-Crew. Marian Gaborik earned 7 points but still hasn't cracked the SJB's scoring roster - a scary thought considering the second-round pick has 9 points in 9 games and has finished above a point-per-game pace in each of the last five years (though he's averaged just 56 games per year).

John-Michael Liles had 7 tallies for the Fightin' Irish, continuing to collect points at an unrealistic pace. The Irish may have one of the best defences out there with Byfuglien, Seabrook and Zidlicky all playing well and Mark Streit on injury reserve.

The worst weeks belonged to the Manitoba Roos and Gphil's Flyers, with 25 points each. For the Flyers, key Washington and Detroit scorers were unusually quiet. For the Roos, the lack of an elite goaltender is obviously holding them back.

Poll results: 4th overall pick

We asked who would become the cornerstone of your fantasy franchise if you had the 4th overall pick. The overwhelming majority chose Nicklas Backstrom, the 22 year old coming off a 101 point season. So far he is slightly off the pace with 21 points in 20 games. Semin has more points, but Backstrom is younger and, as a Swede, more likely to remain in North America (Naslund jokes aside).

Daniel Sedin took two votes while Henrik didn't get any. No respect for the Hart and Art Ross trophy winner.

This affirms Fy's selection of Backstrom with the fourth overall pick.  And Fy only voted 4 times in this poll. 

KL Week in Review: Week 5

Last week 51 points separated 1st and last. The gap shrunk to just 42 points this week. The Manitoba Roos can take credit for most of that after their biggest week ever: 40 points, including eight from Alexander Semin and four each from defenceman Yandle and Timonen. Anytime your top four defencemen combine for 13 points, it's a good week. And just like that, the Roos are back in contention.

Less dramatically because he is in second place, Wittman had the biggest week with 43 points, including ten combined from Canadiens Spacek and Plekanec.

The Carmada had the worst week, netting just 19 points and dropping from 3rd to 9th place, despite Drew Doughty's return from a concussion. The Islanders are absolutely terrible, something Fy points out Micah should have taken under advisement when drafting three Islander forwards. Teehan shares the pain - second round pick John Tavares has just 10 points.

The Dicklas Lidstroms also had a poor week as Lundqvist started just one of the Rangers three games (a loss) and Chicago continued to struggle with Kane and Toews held off the scoresheet.

Inexplicably, Andrew Ference and the Preydators are now in 8th place. I've contacted the admins at pickuphockey to double check this.

Procedures: Trades and Free Agent Pickups

How it works: Free agents

1.       You, the GM, send me an email setting out the players you want to add and drop. They must be of the same position.

2.       I enter it into the system that day. If I’m really busy, I enter it later but backdate it to that day. So far I have been quick to respond because the pool is more fun than my job.

3.       The player begins accumulating points the following day. Note it may appear as though you have dropped a player but not added one. The new player will show up the next morning, with points from last night.

4.       Only if the player should have gotten points and did not, by the next morning (two days after the pickup request), do you need to contact me.

How it works: Trades

1.       Both GMs email me or one GM emails me and copies the other GM with details of the finalized trade.

2.       If the trade is approved, I enter the trade that day. Alternatively, I enter it later and backdate it to that day.

3.       The trade takes effect the following day. Note it may not appear that way on your roster until the morning after (two days after the trade).

4.       Only if something still looks wrong after that should you contact me.

KL Week in Review: Week 4

Has the future arrived early? The Moilers led all teams with 35 points this week, including 11 from Luongo's three wins and one shutout. Mo also benefited from eight different players chipping in for at least two points. 

K-Blat's Blues extended their lead to its widest margin ever with a big 34-point week, including yet another shutout by Jaroslav Halak. See G-Phil's post below for an interesting analysis of the early impact of shutouts.

The biggest week from a non-goalie came from the Winter Claassics' Loui Eriksson, who had 7 points despite the Stars being shut-out last night in Colorado.

There's no such thing as a shutout jinx.

In my view it is still way too early to tell whether goalies are worth too much in this league, but here's a quick overview of what the standings would look like if we eliminated points for shut outs all together, counting only the two points for the win. I'm not advocating such a change, but its a handy way to tell at a glance who is relying too heavily on shutout points from goaltenders:

New Pos	Old Pos	Change	Name	Pts	S/Os	Total SO pts	New total w/o SOs
1	1	0	St. Jewish Blues	142	3	21	127
2	3	1	Powder Rangers	127	1	7	122
3	4	1	Carmada	126	1	7	121
3	4	1	Mackhawks	126	1	7	121
5	7	2	Fylanders	120	0	0	120
6	2	-4	Winter Claassics	128	2	14	118
7	6	-1	Wittman's Hitmen	125	2	14	115
8	8	0	Schizzarks	116	1	7	111
9	10	1	J-kru's A-crew	110	0	0	110
10	11	1	Fightin' Irish	108	0	0	108
11	8	-3	G-Phil's Flyers	116	2	14	106
12	11	-1	Dicklas Lidstroms	108	1	7	103
13	13	0	Preydators	106	1	7	101
13	13	0	Moilers	106	1	7	101
15	15	0	Manitoba Roos	97	0	0	97

A few things jump out:

1. K-Blat is still leading the way, though his current 14 point lead is brought down to a more reasonable 5 points.
2. Dave Claassen takes the biggest hit, dropping from 2nd place to 6th place and losing 10 points - though with 3 points currently separating 2nd and 6th, thats not awfully suprising.
3. I take the second biggest hit in the standings, dropping three spaces and 10 points.
   
4. The biggest beneficiary is Fy, who actually gains 2 positions. As one of only four GMs with zero current shutouts - and the only one in the top 8 - he is in perhaps the best position overall to make a big November push if Turco puts together a few shutouts, or Fleury remembers what, exactly, he's in the league for.

In any event, with 7 point shutouts, a good goalie can potentially win it all for a mediocre team, but there is no substitute for a well-rounded roster. K-Blat is in first place because he is getting excellent production from his whole roster, not just big SO victories from Halak.

In any event, this is still awfully early, and this has been a weird year with obscenely hot starts from okay players, and no production at all from previously consistent stars. I, for one, dig the idea that Nittymaki could string together 4 shutouts in a couple of weeks and propel Roos, however artificially, to the top of the league. With so many points coming from a single position, any hold at the top is tenuous and no one at the bottom is every truly out of it.

Transactions

11/01/2010   FA    Winter Claassics    drop: Michael Grabner (NYI)    add: Andrew Ladd (ATL)

11/01/2010   FA    Manitoba Roos   drop: Tukka Rask (BOS)    add: Antero Niittymaki (SJS)

11/01/2010   FA    Manitoba Roos    drop: Cody Hodgson (VAN)    add: Ryan Callahan (NYR)

11/02/2010   FA    Schizzarks    drop: Lars Eller (MTL)    add: Justin Williams (LAK)

This Just In: Undrafted Talent Still Available

You can't do a realistic assessment of the best available free agents after five games - if you tried, you'd end up nabbing someone like Clarke MacArthur.

But after about ten games, a decent picture of available talent begins to take shape.

A little-known feature in pickuphockey is the ability to search player statistics and see only undrafted players. (To do this, go to the left column --> NHL Player Stats --> then select undrafted players.)

So who's hot and available (besides the Deputy Commissioner, amiright ladies?) I won't go into a detailed analysis, because that's your job. But there are some point-per-game forwards out there that I'm surprised nobody has bit on. Some rhyme with fadd, others with schmallahan.

The D crop doesn't look that good, but there a few goalies that I wouldn't hesitate to swap for, especially if my only goalie were, say, backing up a goalie who was 6-0 with three shutouts and a .5 GAA.

To date, Dickie and Micah have used both their pickups, while Fy and Powder have used one each.

KL Week in Review: Week 3

Week three sees the Blues maintain their lead from last week, although it seemed a different team was leading the pool every morning I checked (first thing I do when the iphone alarm goes off). The Mackhawks and, surprisingly, the Preydators had huge weeks. Preyde got 7 points from Duncan Keith, while the Mack's Heatley-Thornton duo combined for 15 points.

Just two points separate third from seventh! And some of the teams below that have solid players struggling early, so I wouldn't count out anybody at this point, other than Roos who has all but declared 2010-11 a rebuilding year. Hopefully it will be a battle to the end. Like I said in my very first email, you guys are the best of the best, so whoever gets the trophy named after them in April will have earned it.

There are a few undrafted players that I am surprised nobody has picked up yet. Look for a post on that tomorrow.

Poll Results

Are goalies worth too much in the KL? Yes                        3 (33%)
No                         2 (22%)
Too soon to tell     4 (44%)

Glad to see reason prevailed for now, but it's something we will examine again at the end of the year.

Transactions

10/29/2010   TRADE    Moilers send F Ales Hemsky and D Matt Taormina to the Shizzarks for F Mason Raymond and D Jay Bouwmeester.


Analysis: A Canucks fan at heart, Mo picks up budding second-line speedster Mason Raymond, who we figure is good for at least 50 points this year (he had 52 points last year - some say sign of things to come, some say the Canucks will never score that many goals again). Schizz adds 70 point forward Ales Hemsky (more if the Oilers keep scoring like they did tonight) to an already potent cadre of forwards that includes presently underachieving Backstrom and Parise. To facilitate the trade, the Moilers had to drop all-name defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk, and add Matt Taormina (the NJ defenceman, not the small coastal town in Italy). Note this does not count toward the Moiler's 2 free agent acquisitions this year, per rule 10 g). So whether this trade evens out will depend on whether Bouwmeester gets 24 points like he is on pace for, 29 points like he had last year, or 43 points like he averaged the four years prior.

Transactions (the first trade!)

10/29/2010   TRADE    Powder Rangers send G Tim Thomas to the Carmada for G Jonathan Bernier and the Carmada's 3rd round pick in 2011.

Analysis: We're not going to analyze our own trade. I am obligated to remind you of Rule 11 i), which states that "The GMs may, by a majority vote, veto or reverse any trade involving the Commissioner."

Altruistic Post

Well, to balance out my "self-serving" last post, here is a post that will not at all reference my own team. Also, my deepest apologies to Dave Claassen offensive post the other day. I should have emailed everyone individually.

I am charged with the task of unpacking two add/drops.

First, Fy "I have an idea" Virani drops Zack Boychuk to pick up hometown hero Clarke MacArthur. Before this year, MacArthur was most famous for playing for de facto AHL affiliate Atlanta Thrashers and sporting two legitimate last names. Now that he plays in the Centre of the [Hockey] Universe, he's being touted as the second coming of Alexander Steen. The most perplexing aspect of this change is that it wasn't done sooner - Zack was sent to the newly minted Charlotte Checkers of the AHL on September 29.

Then, Dickie swapped aging defencemen, dropping perennial Swede Matthias Ohlund for perennially misspelled Michal Rozsival. This is a great under-the-radar pickup. And I'm only a little bit pissed that I missed it, seeing as how I just advertised that I wanted an upgrade on defence. Maybe I should have looked into the free agent pool for a defenceman playing 25 minutes a night and quarterbacking a powerplay featuring Marian Gaborik and the other other Staal.

Sorry Dave, I mentioned my team again at the end there. That's on me.

Headscratch This

Many people, including myself, have been scratching their heads about my goalies. I knew I had made a terrible mistake the second I picked Varlamov, frightened by a goalie rush.

Then I picked Neuvirth, which at first seemed great (both Washington goalies!) but I now recognize that was a mistake.

As pointed out by Micah, the slot system (which I support) favours the bold, ie. making moves early to get the full benefit of the change. With Varlamov batting a zero, if I was going to replace him it had to be now, while there was still a chance Thomas could make up the necessary ground after missing his points for the first three weeks of the year.

Why this rambling post? I am listening to trade offers to either goalie. I am confident that both will get enough starts to carry my team this year. Thus, I will take on your dud goalie in exchange for an upgrade on one of my dud skaters (D or F) and maybe a draft pick. I put out what I think is a very reasonable offer to Roos, but (curiously considering he has no goalie points) he has not responded to it. So I'm opening it up to the world. Make me an offer.

I would also like to point out my best and worst pick of far in the draft:

Andrew Ference - Lia - Sure it was the 20th round, but instead of making a bold or interesting pick, Lia set feminism back decades by picking a hot guy. Way to be a stereotype.

Matt Cullen - Claaassssennn - 20th round, 9 points. While most of us picked rookies that were probably 4 years away from being productive in the last round, Claassen took the easy route and picked reliable veteran Cullen. He's getting big minutes with the other Koivu and my Auntie Miettenen. A tip of my hat to DC.

KL Week in Review

K-Blat had an absolutely huge week with the SJB moving from 4th to 1st. They had 47 points on the strength of a 9 point week from Halak, while the next best team, the Powder Rangers had 36 (despite a weak Saturday) on the coattails of 3rd overall pick Steven Stamkos and his 8 point week. G-Phil had a terrible week that included Ovechkin going pointless in three games, possibly for the first time in his career. Look for Ovie and the Flyers to bounce back next week.

It's interesting that while the total gap between first and last widened, the middle actually contracted. Last week 21 points separated 2nd from 11th - today the spread is just 15 points. It's still a tight race and the lead seems to change every day, which is a lot of fun.

Transactions

10/23/2010   FA    Powder Rangers    drop: Semyon Varlamov (WSH)    add: Tim Thomas (BOS)

Analysis:  Bit of a head scratcher here. Varlamov is back from injury and started the last two games (both losses). By giving up half of their potent all-Washington goalie tandem, the P-Rangers are betting that Varlamov plays badly enough to lose the starting job to Neuvirth. On the other hand, Thomas has started four of five games for Boston this season and has yet to let in more than one goal. Left wing lock has Rask as the tentative starter tonight in a game the P-Rangers as well as the Manitoba Roos will be watching closely.

Team Structures

Given a roster of 20 where the only constraint is that scoring is limited to nine forwards, four defencemen and one goalie, any number of team structures are possible. What foundations were laid in the first year of the KL?

13 forwards, 5 defencemen, 2 goalies
This was the most common approach, with the majority of GMs (eight out of fifteen) loading up on forwards and wanting a backup goalie just in case. This effectively means you have four spare forwards and only one spare defenceman.

12 forwards, 6 defencemen, 2 goalies
Four GMs opted for an extra defenceman. It's certainly not inconceivable that you might experience two significant injuries among your defence, and if that happens, G-Phil, Lia, Teehan and K-Blat will be laughing at the forward-heavy majority.

13/6 or 14/5 and 1 goalie
Given that the goalie position has the potential to be worth more than any other player, taking only one goalie is a gamble. You have to be pretty confident in your pick, and that's why DC used his first round (13th overall) pick to secure Martin Brodeur. The other first-round goalie went to Mo, who is waiting for Luongo to pick up his game because Schneider is giving AV (and Canucks fans) second thoughts. Meanwhile, Roos is frustrated (I know because he emailed me) with his third-round pick, Tukka Rask, who sits with zero wins and only one start to date.

Transactions

Normally we will try to post each trade or free agent swap as it happens, with a little analysis. Today I'll post all of the transactions that have happened so far in the season.

10/11/2010   FA    Dicklas Lidstroms    drop: Daymond Langkow    add: Curtis Glencross

10/12/2010    FA    Carmada    drop: Kyle Okposo    add: Eric Fehr
10/12/2010    FA    Carmada    drop: Matt Hunwick    add: Kyle Cumiskey

Analysis

With Daymond Langkow still not cleared for contact, Dickie took the next best player on perhaps the league's worst team, Curtis Glencross of the Calgary Flames.

Dickie's move sent Micah into a state of panic, thinking the free agent gold rush was on. This, combined with an irrevocable desire to be winning the pool for at least a week, meant Micah would use both free agent adds in the first week. (This is why I limited it to two!) Micah has some regrets and hopes Okposo's concussion has long-lasting effects.

KL Week in Review

After the first full week of NHL action, a preliminary picture of the KL standings is shaping up.

(I missed grabbing the image on Sunday when the week actually ends. Will do that next week.)

Who's numbers are overinflated?

The Carmada. Blake Comeau and Josh Bailey of NYI fame are both near the top of the league in scoring. That just can't last. I'll admit I was planning on sitting on those 17th and 19th round picks for at least a year.

G-Phil's Flyers. Vokoun decided to have two of his three annual shutouts in the first two weeks.

Who's numbers are underinflated?
Dicklas Lidstroms - Dickie's top four picks are averaging under 3 points per game. Toews, Kane, Kesler and Lundqvist will pick it up soon.

Similar arguments could be made for the Angry Irishmen.

The most improved team last week was, I'm fairly confident, the Shizzarks. Pretty sure they went from 13th to 7th. I will keep better track of this stuff next week. Hope you guys are enjoying the pool as much as I am!

PS: The poll at the top right is somewhat related to this post.