Friday, November 5, 2010

There's no such thing as a shutout jinx.

In my view it is still way too early to tell whether goalies are worth too much in this league, but here's a quick overview of what the standings would look like if we eliminated points for shut outs all together, counting only the two points for the win. I'm not advocating such a change, but its a handy way to tell at a glance who is relying too heavily on shutout points from goaltenders:

New PosOld PosChangeNamePtsS/OsTotal SO ptsNew total w/o SOs
110St. Jewish Blues142321127
231Powder Rangers12717122
341Carmada12617121
341Mackhawks12617121
572Fylanders12000120
62-4Winter Claassics128214118
76-1Wittman's Hitmen125214115
880Schizzarks11617111
9101J-kru's A-crew11000110
10111Fightin' Irish10800108
118-3G-Phil's Flyers116214106
1211-1Dicklas Lidstroms10817103
13130Preydators10617101
13130Moilers10617101
15150Manitoba Roos970097

A few things jump out:
  1. K-Blat is still leading the way, though his current 14 point lead is brought down to a more reasonable 5 points.
  2. Dave Claassen takes the biggest hit, dropping from 2nd place to 6th place and losing 10 points - though with 3 points currently separating 2nd and 6th, thats not awfully suprising.
  3. I take the second biggest hit in the standings, dropping three spaces and 10 points.
  4. The biggest beneficiary is Fy, who actually gains 2 positions. As one of only four GMs with zero current shutouts - and the only one in the top 8 - he is in perhaps the best position overall to make a big November push if Turco puts together a few shutouts, or Fleury remembers what, exactly, he's in the league for.
In any event, with 7 point shutouts, a good goalie can potentially win it all for a mediocre team, but there is no substitute for a well-rounded roster. K-Blat is in first place because he is getting excellent production from his whole roster, not just big SO victories from Halak.

In any event, this is still awfully early, and this has been a weird year with obscenely hot starts from okay players, and no production at all from previously consistent stars. I, for one, dig the idea that Nittymaki could string together 4 shutouts in a couple of weeks and propel Roos, however artificially, to the top of the league. With so many points coming from a single position, any hold at the top is tenuous and no one at the bottom is every truly out of it.

6 comments:

  1. Thanks for this Greg. It confirms what I always thought - the shutout thing seems like a bigger issue than it is. For those of us (me) who check the pool every. single. morning, when someone gets s shutout on a Monday night and jumps 4 spots in the standings, it seems ridiculous. But here we see that shutouts are [somewhat] spread out, and it isn't making or breaking the league.

    That said, you are right that it is early, and I may regret trading Tim Thomas for futures...

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  2. Nice one Greg.

    That bugger got another shutout last night. It certainly feels like he's pulling away - but lots of goalies were drafted before Halak, so either goalies are a crapshoot or Kblat is a genius. His record in hockey pools supports the latter.

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  3. For the record, K-Blat will confirm my stream of g-chat expletives when he took Halak the round I intended to. But at this point in the game, an extra shutout or two wouldn't have a significant impact on my position - the reality is that my team has underachieved. How the hell does Chris Stewart have like a 7 point lead on Alex Ovechkin??

    At least Lidstrom is on pace for a 90 point season.

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  4. Shouldn't shutouts be multiplied by 5, rather than 7, in your analysis?

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  5. Micah - they are multiplied by 7 in the "Total SO points" column for the purposes of illustrating how many points come from the SO+win. I think the fact that the net value of a SO is 7 points caught some people off guard and I thought it was fun to see how quickly those points add up.

    The "New total w/o SOs" column properly subtracts only the 5 SO points, still including the 2 pts for the win.

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