The Best Draft Picks of 2013

One of the things I enjoy most about fantasy hockey is looking back at the draft to find the best and worst picks. Randomness or luck plays a huge role in the outcome, and sometimes objectively good decisions lead to bad outcomes, and vice versa. Moreover, different GMs will have different objectives, so picks can't always be compared straight across. Nonetheless, a great pick, even in hindsight, is still a great pick. Here I present my list of the top ten twelve draft picks of 2013, and a few runner ups. I based this list on the following criteria:

1. Production this year (especially if drafting team made the playoffs).

2. Keepability - Likelihood of being a life-long keeper and productive player going forward (includes "hype" bonus).

3. The steal factor - how many times did everyone pass on the guy.

This was actually more difficult than I thought, especially the final ordering. Without further ado, the list, counting down from 12 to one:

12. Nathan MacKinnon, WBS Parkers. Round 1, 1st overall.

In hindsight, MacKinnon seems like the only real choice for first overall. But at the time, I know I was thinking Drouin might have a better year, and there was talk of Kadri as well. And Matt felt it should have been Adam Henrique. Rome deserves credit for making the right choice and not thinking he's smarter than Roy/Sakic.  

11. Jaden Schwartz, Los Amjawors Kings. Round 4, 51st overall. 

Schwartz has 52 points and is third on the Blues in shots. The 21 year-old has already established himself as Sam's best player not named Crosby or Niemi, and should be a solid complimentary piece for years to come.

10. Tyler Johnson, Teeyotes. Round 9, 135th overall. 

With 47 points, Johnson is third in rookie scoring, making this a great pick. But Tampa Bay has another rookie, Ondrej Palat, who is second in rookie scoring. Making this a terrible pick. 

9. Torey Krug, Patrik Stefans. Round 4, 63rd overall.

With 37 points, 5'9" Bruin Torey Krug stands head-and-shoulders above all other rookie blueliners. 

8. Andrej Sekera, G-Phil's Flyers. Round 6, 97th overall.

Sekera's 44 points came out of absolutely nowhere, unless you ask Greg. The Slovak is 9th among defencemen in scoring, but somehow probably not a keeper on Greg's team (over Karlsson, Kronwall and Shattenkirk, all in the top 15... wow.) 

7. Kyle Okposo, Joshfrey Krupuls. Round 1, seventh overall.

A shamed-then-revered pick, Okposo has finally become a legitimate fantasy player. 69 points is tops among all drafted skaters. What prevents this pick from being ranked higher is that at seventh overall, there was really only one guy picked ahead of Okposo that shouldn't have been (that guy being Chris Stewart). 

6. Ryan Johansen, Joshfrey Krupuls. Round 4, 55th overall. 

54 points in 72 games, after 12 in 42 last year. The 21-year-old 225 lb centre is the present and future of Columbus. Hype bonus: high.

5. Alexander Steen, Dicklas Lidstroms. Round 2, 25th overall. 

Steen has 31 goals and 57 points in 61 games, the 2nd-highest point-per-game pace of all drafted skaters. This is the year Steen finally transitioned from non-keeper to permanent fixture.

4. Ben Bishop, Los Amjawors Kings. Round 9, 133rd overall.

The eighth goalie off the board (after Karri Ramo?!), Bishop was drafted as Antti Niemi's backup before being traded to the Teeyotes, filling a massive hole in Teehan's roster and carrying him into the playoffs. Today Bishop has 85 points to Niemi's 86, the top two goalies in our format. Only reason he's not higher is he's a goalie, and the best goalie drafted will pretty much always outscore the best skater drafted.

3. Gustav Nyquist, Schizzarks. Seventh round, 108th overall. 

Nyquist gets 1000 hype bonus points after scoring 20 goals over his last 24 games. He loses points because a) his shooting percentage is an unsustainable 19.2%; b) his opportunity was due to major injuries to Red Wings regulars; and c) he's a Red Wing not named Datsyuk or Zetterberg, so I'm still not 100% sure he won't start next season in the AHL. 

2. Ryan McDonagh, Joshfrey Krupuls. Round 3, 39th overall. McDonagh has shown real offensive upside this season, currently sitting fifth among blueliners with 14 goals and 11th with 43 points. The 24-year-old was the 10th defenceman off the board and quickly established himself as the Krupuls' badly-needed #1 keeper dman.

1. Mark Giordano, Mackhawks. Round 7, 107th overall. 

Giordano's 43 points in 55 games, prorated, is second only to Erik Karlsson. That's pretty much what everyone thought heading into the year, right? The big three: Karlsson, Letang, Giordano? The Mackhawks' best defenceman, Giordano, along with other savvy veteran picks like Alfredsson, Doan, Nielsen, Zidlicky and MacArthur, have the Mackhawks headed for a surprising top-four finish.

Honourable Mentions

• Tomas Hertl, WBS Parkers. Round 6, 90th overall. 25 points in 35 games.
• Sean Monahan, Fylanders. Round 4, 49th overall. 19 goals as a rookie.
• Mats Zuccarello, Moilers. 143rd overall. 50 in 69.
• Semyon Varlamov, Quebec Rordiques - 134th overall, right after Ben Bishop (above). 76 points.
• Jonas Hiller, Winter Claassics. 82nd overall. 75 points.
• Tyson Barrie, Joshfrey Krupuls. 71st overall. 32 points for 2nd-year dman.
• All savvy veteran picks of the Mackhawks (see above). 

Did I miss anybody? Anybody ranked too high or too low? Is Mark Giordano for real?

For anyone keeping track, J-Kru had three picks in the top seven. Pretty good draft. 

KL Week in Review: Week 26

Here's how things sit on the home stretch, with about a dozen games remaining:

There are some interesting races shaping up:

The Money Shot Race

• Obviously, the top 3 remain interesting (to the top 3 anyways). The Flyers have had a big week and clawed back into 1st place, but this is a weird league and shit happens. A late season surge by any one of these teams could mean a new champion

The Charity Case Race

• The Mackhawks have had the best week in the entire KL and have consolidated their hold on 4th place. Nothing is safe, however, and the Teeyotes/Classsics are still within striking distance. I would still love to hear from any of MattMack, Teehan or Claassen with respect to their chosen charities so I can figure out who to root for. 
• Side note: No team in the KL has as many points as the Mackhawks in March. Probably a long shot but they cannot be discounted to actually end up in the top 3. 

The Playoff Bubble Race

• The Krupuls and Rangers (against all odds, having lost Stamkos for the season) are probably good bets to make the playoffs, but 23 points is far from a safe lead in this league, even this late in the season. The Los Amjawors Kings' 27 points last week is probably a disappointing result as a Moiler-esque 38 points would have put them within 12 points. 
• The Moilers aforementioned 38 point week is an excellent result and could position them to make things interesting down the stretch.

The Toronto Maple Leafs of the 2000s Race

• The Lidstroms and Patrik Stefans probably had higher hopes for this year. Instead they are probably going to end up competing for the worst possible finish - just out of reach of the playoffs but not a comparatively poor draft position.

With the 1st Overall Pick in the 2014 Draft, the _______ Are Pleased to Select.... Race

•  Let's be reality here, this is probably the Rordique's to lose - and a perfect position for a new GM taking over a struggling franchise to find themselves in. This will be a chance for our newest GM to show us what he's really made of. 
• That leaves the WBS Parkers, the Schizzarks and the Vanrooser Canicks all competing for the silver medal - the 2nd overall pick. With a mere 8 points separating 3 teams (14 if you want to include the Stefans in this group) the race for second worst team in the KL might actually end up being the most interesting one to watch.

Connor McDavid and the Draft Lottery

Draft lotteries are intended to discourage teams from tanking. While there is literature out there suggesting lotteries fail to achieve this objective, I'm less interested in discouraging tanking (we have no "on-ice product" to worry about, so once a GM decides their season is over (for the Patrik Stefans, never), they can do whatever they want), and more interested in adding an event that would only increase the excitement level of the KL.

Earlier this season we had a thread going about instituting a draft lottery (see email thread titled "Keeper League 2013-13 - Draft day!"). There was a lot of support for the idea, and then we started talking about odds and whether we should mimic the NHL's system, and then suddenly the season was upon us and the discourse fizzled. Also Romany said he didn't want it implemented for 2014 as he considered himself likely to finish last (Rory may have something to say about that). 

With Connor McDavid being draft eligible in 2015 and the Milan Micahleks, for one, already hearing fans encouraging the team to #FadeForMcDavid or #BeAwfulForEichel, it is important that we settle this matter before the 2014-15 season begins. (I mean, we could just impose it immediately (by majority vote), but we don't like to ruffle feathers - after all, we have so much at stake.) 

In the early days of the NHL draft, one team would win and move up, to a maximum of four places. The current CBA was amended to allow all non-playoff teams a shot at selecting first overall, weighted according to regular season finish. Today, the NHL is considering using a lottery to determine the top three, or even the top five selections. They are also considering a rolling five-year formula for ranking the non-playoff teams. 

There are many ways to structure a draft, with or without a lottery. For example, I'm starting to love this NBA wheel idea discussed in this Grantland article.

If we decide to implement a lottery, it could happen live at the start of the draft (meaning all the non-playoff teams get to salivate over the first round pick leading up to the draft), or ahead of time to allow more certainty in planning. The NHL, at present, randomly draws numbered balls to determine the order well in advance. 

NHL Probabilities
1st: 25%
2nd: 18.8%
3rd: 14.2%
4th: 10.7%
5th: 8.1%
6th: 6.2%
7th: 4.7%
8th: 3.6%
9th: 2.7%
10th: 2.1%
11th: 1.5%
12th: 1.1%
13th: 0.8%
14th: 0.5%

Proposed KL Probabilities
1st: 32% (note: 1st is the 16th-place regular season finisher)
2nd: 22%
3rd: 15%
4th: 11%
5th: 8%
6th: 6%
7th: 4%
8th: 2%

This is just to give an idea of what the odds might look like. When I asked Stefan to crunch the numbers to give us odds perfectly analogous to the NHL, I didn't like the result (39% chance of the first pick not moving). But the specifics could be hammered out, say, this summer by a committee of interested GMs who would make a recommendation to the Commissioner. 

Ultimately a draft lottery (or other draft changes) is another thing I'd like to see the next Commissioner consider over the summer (I've been keeping a list), and implement for the 2015 draft, before the 2014-15 season begins. 

Speaking of the next Commissioner, I imagine Greg will be making a formal announcement about voting soon. 

All ideas expressed herein are solely the author's and do not represent the views of the Commissioner, the Deputy Commissioner, or the Keeper League (tm).

Positional points update

It was early November when #PS1 gave us a graphic showing each team's points from forwards, defencemen and goaltenders. Here is the updated graph, as of games played March 17, 2014.

Orange = goalies; red = defence; blue = forwards

Note the Y-axis begins at 300, to allow us to zoom in on the real differences between rosters.

A few observations:

1. Even if they didn't have a goalie, G-Phil's Flyers would make the playoffs.

2. 400 points from forwards seems to be the cut-off: if you're not getting that baseline, you're not making the playoffs. By the end of the season, it will probably be 450, with the best teams surpassing 500.

3. I don't think this adds or takes away much from Stefan's more in-depth analysis from November. He mentioned that there are many ways to skin a cat. The Fylanders and Milan Micahleks are built the same way: elite forwards, elite goaltending, mediocre defence. G-Phil's Flyers have vastly superior defence, but mediocre forwards and goaltending. If a team could have elite forwards and elite defence, I think that team would be untouchable, regardless of their goaltending situation. On the other hand, the Mackhawks are right there with the Fylanders' and Micahleks' forwards and defence, but Jonathan Quick's off year is keeping them out of the upper echelon.

4. The Schizzarks' and Patrik Stefans' forwards have been awful this year (for various reasons but particularly injuries) - bad enough to drag down perfectly good defences. Both GMs feel strongly that next year will be different.

5. Because we only score four defencemen, a great player can hide an otherwise rotten core. Case in point: the Schizzarks' Keith Yandle has 40% of their defence points.

Consolidated Trade Post

Trade deadline day started with a whimper and ended with a bang. 

A summary of trades, with my quickie thoughts. I encourage all GMs to chime in on these trades, especially those involved. Love hearing motives.

Trade: The Dicklas Lidstroms send Boone Jenner and Patrick Wiercioch to the Schizzarks for Jay Bouwmeester and David Booth.

Quickie Analysis: Schizzarks have an embarrassment of riches on D, and J-Bo could walk for nothing this summer. The get a promising forward in exchange that will be kept as a prospect this summer.

Trade: The G-Phil's Flyers send a 2014 4th round draft pick to the Patrik Stefans for a 2014 6th round draft pick (previously the Flyers) and a FA add/drop.

Pickup: The G-Phil's Flyers drop Pekka Rinne for Darcy Kuemper. The G-Phil's Flyers drop Jaroslav Halak for Pekka Rinne.

Pickup: The Dicklas Lidstroms drop Kari Ramo for Jaroslav Halak.

Quickie Analysis: The Flyers needed an upgrade in goal with Halak languishing in Buffalo. The cheapest option ended up being putting Rinne back on the scoring roster, who even on one leg will get more wins than Halak. The Patrick Stefans got a modest pick upgrade for the remaining FA add/drop, and the Lidstroms scooped an upgrade on Ramo as, I guess, free, modest trade bait for this summer.

Commissioners post-Halak trade edit: OMG FML. 

Trade: The Patrick Stefans send Torey Krug and David Clarkson to the Vanrooser Canicks for Jake Muzzin and Marcus Johansson.

Quickie Analysis: Really Krug for Johansson. Interesting to see two GMs essentially put different keeper values on an offensively gifted defenceman, but the Stefans have not been shy about the value they put on using up keeper slots for d-men (hint: not much).

Trade: The Dicklas Lidstroms send Jakob Voracek and a 2014 7th round draft pick to the Vanrooser Canicks for Kyle Turris and a 2014 4th round draft pick.

Quickie Analysis: Voracek is consistent, earning between 46 and 50 points in each of his last 3 of this last 4 seasons. Last season, however, he was a PPG player. He is on pace for 58 points this year, which is up on his average, down on his previous year.  Turris on the other hand is a 20ish point player in the midst of a breakout season. Only time will tell how this plays out.

Trade: The Fylanders send Carl Soderberg and their 2014 4th round draft pick to the Patrik Stefans for Nathan Horton and their 2014 7th round draft pick.

Quickie Analysis: Not much to say here - this is simply a bet by the Fylanders that Horton will score more points in the final 20 games than Soderberg.  The Stefans, on the other hand, need consistency, not dudes who keep missing a ton of time.

Trade: The Vanrooser Canicks send Alex Goligoski to the Quebec Rordiques for David Rundblad and a 2014 3rd round draftpick.

Quickie Analysis: First Krug, then Rundblad - the Canicks' plan to get young D with upside in place for the future is pretty clear (or if they don't see the upside on Rundblad, then its a free 3rd round pick). The Rordiques, on the other hand, get much-needed veteran defensive help that will help them in coming years.