Connor McDavid and the Draft Lottery

Draft lotteries are intended to discourage teams from tanking. While there is literature out there suggesting lotteries fail to achieve this objective, I'm less interested in discouraging tanking (we have no "on-ice product" to worry about, so once a GM decides their season is over (for the Patrik Stefans, never), they can do whatever they want), and more interested in adding an event that would only increase the excitement level of the KL.

Earlier this season we had a thread going about instituting a draft lottery (see email thread titled "Keeper League 2013-13 - Draft day!"). There was a lot of support for the idea, and then we started talking about odds and whether we should mimic the NHL's system, and then suddenly the season was upon us and the discourse fizzled. Also Romany said he didn't want it implemented for 2014 as he considered himself likely to finish last (Rory may have something to say about that). 

With Connor McDavid being draft eligible in 2015 and the Milan Micahleks, for one, already hearing fans encouraging the team to #FadeForMcDavid or #BeAwfulForEichel, it is important that we settle this matter before the 2014-15 season begins. (I mean, we could just impose it immediately (by majority vote), but we don't like to ruffle feathers - after all, we have so much at stake.) 

In the early days of the NHL draft, one team would win and move up, to a maximum of four places. The current CBA was amended to allow all non-playoff teams a shot at selecting first overall, weighted according to regular season finish. Today, the NHL is considering using a lottery to determine the top three, or even the top five selections. They are also considering a rolling five-year formula for ranking the non-playoff teams. 

There are many ways to structure a draft, with or without a lottery. For example, I'm starting to love this NBA wheel idea discussed in this Grantland article.

If we decide to implement a lottery, it could happen live at the start of the draft (meaning all the non-playoff teams get to salivate over the first round pick leading up to the draft), or ahead of time to allow more certainty in planning. The NHL, at present, randomly draws numbered balls to determine the order well in advance. 

NHL Probabilities
1st: 25%
2nd: 18.8%
3rd: 14.2%
4th: 10.7%
5th: 8.1%
6th: 6.2%
7th: 4.7%
8th: 3.6%
9th: 2.7%
10th: 2.1%
11th: 1.5%
12th: 1.1%
13th: 0.8%
14th: 0.5%

Proposed KL Probabilities
1st: 32% (note: 1st is the 16th-place regular season finisher)
2nd: 22%
3rd: 15%
4th: 11%
5th: 8%
6th: 6%
7th: 4%
8th: 2%

This is just to give an idea of what the odds might look like. When I asked Stefan to crunch the numbers to give us odds perfectly analogous to the NHL, I didn't like the result (39% chance of the first pick not moving). But the specifics could be hammered out, say, this summer by a committee of interested GMs who would make a recommendation to the Commissioner. 

Ultimately a draft lottery (or other draft changes) is another thing I'd like to see the next Commissioner consider over the summer (I've been keeping a list), and implement for the 2015 draft, before the 2014-15 season begins. 

Speaking of the next Commissioner, I imagine Greg will be making a formal announcement about voting soon. 

All ideas expressed herein are solely the author's and do not represent the views of the Commissioner, the Deputy Commissioner, or the Keeper League (tm).