MRKL on Ice: October Part 1

This is the first of what will be a regular 2-part retrospective on each month. Part 1 is some sort of statistical analysis, which I have relied on to create a power ranking, while part 2 is a handful of awards and one “dishonor”.  MRKL stands for Month in Review for the Keeper League and should be pronounced “miracle” to imbue the league with the awe and wonder it deserves and to prevent confusion that the German Chancellor is playing hockey. 

Here is a snap shot of the standings as of the morning of Oct 30th:

Looking back at October is fun because the small sample size to kick off the season always means that some guys are out of the gate way ahead of their pace, while others still have their toes in the blocks. If we look at last year, however, we are reminded that certain trajectories are simply unsustainable, especially where significant puck luck can be attributed (see Claude Giroux’s face on one side of the coin and Mikhail Grabovski’s ass on the other side).

I’d guess at least half of you guys are familiar with PDO in some way or another. And most who aren’t probably aren’t reading this post, but alas, here’s a brief description. Apparently it doesn’t stand for anything, even though I really wish it were “public display of offence”. That’d actually be misleading, though, as it is a sum of a team’s shooting percentage plus its save percentage. Accordingly, the same metric for an individual player is his team’s shooting percentage when he’s on the ice plus his goalies’ save percentage when he’s on the ice. PDO is thus a statistic that advanced stat gurus point to as the best indicator of luck, given that on average, close to 1 of every 10 shots goes in (it’s actually more like 9 out of 100). Consequently, a player whose PDO is over 1 appears to have had more good luck than bad.

For our purposes, though, why should we care about a player’s PDO? The answer is you shouldn’t entirely. The KL is a points-based league, and so who the hell cares whether you should expect a player’s goalie to save more shots when he’s on the ice or not—unless of course you want to read into how that might affect his ice time, but c’mon. The only component of PDO that matters at all for us is “On-Ice Shooting %” or what I call “OISH%”; it provides some insight into whether a player is benefiting or suffering from how his teammates are shooting the puck and how the opposing team’s goalie is stopping the puck when he’s on the ice—things he has very little control over.

I lead things off with a table, which shows your team’s average OISH% as of Oct 30, 2014 (remember, low bodes better than high as far as your future is concerned).

With that laid out, I have somewhat arbitrarily set the “normal” range for OISH% from 5-13%. I have focused my attention on players outside of that range, who will in all probability come within that range as the season continues. What follows is my assessment of which 2 players on each of your teams can be expected to respectively regress and progress the most. 

1. Mackhawks

Joe Thornton: 14.49, will crank it… let me finish… down a notch

Marian Hossa: 4.84; expect significant improvement

The Mackhawks have a couple more slow-starters in Ennis and Doan, who should shore up his depth. This could be the year that they finally strike gold, or zinc or copper, or whatever it is that GM MacKenzie does.

2. Joshfrey Krupuls

Henrik Zetterberg: 13.64; don’t expect any betterberg

Tyson Barrie: 5.77; capable of even more

Pretty damn similar outlook for this squad as for the Mackhawks. They are neatly put together, and still always looking to self-improve.

3. Dicklas Lidstroms

Corey Perry: 15.87; his own shooting % is even higher, so a little reality should hit

Patrick Kane: 3.28; this is off the charts low, so look out

Kane isn’t the only guy slow to produce for the Lidstroms. Not only is Gaborik injured, but even in the line-up things weren’t bouncing in. You could add Voynov to the mentionable list as well, but his low OISH% is offset by his high SOP% (sig-oth punching percentage). In all truth, I fear this GM and the looming move he is about to make.

4. G-Phil’s Flyers

Alex Ovechkin: 16.9; what?! Guy should have 15 pts based on that number…

Erik Karlsson: 4.88; yep, and as if a 71 pt projection was not enough

There are a couple of other high flyers on the G-Phil’s, but overall, I don’t expect anything drastic to happen. Everyone in the league will continue to cheer ruthlessly against this stocky asshole, and I truly believe it’s going to be nip and tuck at the end of the season (with emphasis on the word nip, am I right, Greg?) between him and the three GMs I’ve listed above him.

5. Patrik Stefans

Jeff Carter: 17.39; obviously I don’t expect JC to whittle away a 100 pt season

Patrick Wiercioch: 3.13; so he should probably have 1 or maybe even 2 points

It takes a big man to make certain concessions, but I may be in for a rude awakening. Not only will Carter come back down to earth, but Forsberg, Nelson, and Seguin are also outliers according to my model. Of course, I have scrutinized the numbers a lot more for this gang, and I advise that while there should be some decline from the top producers, there will be insurance that emerges from unforeseen places (reference to iPhone conundrum, which some of you know about).

6. Winter Claassens

Tanner Pearson: 16.13; “that 70s projection” is all Hollywood

Gabriel Landeskog: 4.29; GL will start to find some good fortune

There’s actually a lot of unrealized upside on this squad, so contrary to popular thought, this GM’s best days may not be behind him.

7. Schizzarks

Rick Nash: 19.67; to no surprise, the real Nick Rash will start to flare up

Aaron Ekblad: 4.76; yeah, but… Florida, so don’t get too excited

It’s easy to shit all over the Skidmarks, but other than Nash, this team’s core is producing, and not at an unsustainable rate. So, even if his future seems inevitably filled with gloom, this GM will land nicely on his feet and stay in the playoff mix for most of the season.

8. Magnus Faajarvis

Joe Pavelski: 17.11; little Joe’s projected totals are going to shrink

Sam Gagner: 4.92; finally, an explanation

There are actually a lot of guys doing a lot of weird things on this squad. Based on the numbers, it’s arguable that this team could have 12 fwds at the end of the season with 50-65 pts, and 5 defenders who could put up 30-35 pts. Point is, there will be a lot of mediocrity on this squad when they look back on the season, and if they make the playoffs, it’ll be because of Weber and their goalie… well, and the +/- 37 other moves this GM will make.

9. Powder Rangers

Patrick Hornqvist: 14.29; as great as Sid is, this honeymoon will end at some point

Anze Kopitar: 4.92; don’t feel too antsy about his early lack of production

Expect a little less from Leddy and Burakovsky too, but more from Pietrangelo. On the whole, I am surprised not to see higher OISH% numbers here, given that the blueprint for building this team could be called the “line-mate approach”. Side q: can I start referring to Laurel as your linemate?

10. Los Amjawors Kings

Vladimir Tarasenko: 13.79; whatever

Ales Hemsky: 4.17; has not been a wonderland of puck luck in big D

This squad should be labeled the most honest or truthful. There is pretty much no posturing, as all but 4 players fall within my “normal” range of 5-13%, and no player is over that Tarasenko mark. At the end of this season, this GM will be tall, handsome, and fighting for his playoff life.

11. Milan Micahleks

Nikita Kucherov: 15.38; screen-cap that, Carmody

Sami Vatanen; 2.44; see below for a limitation of my model

Comment: I actually think that the Micahleks are headed South, and I don’t just mean moving to Marpole. Getzlaf, Benn, and Spurgeon are all sploogin’ prematurely, and I don’t think a Tomas Jurco resurgence will help mop things up.  I stand by an early prediction that sees this squad miss the playoffs for the first time.

12. Moilers

Adam Henrique: 16.67: prepare Schizz and his giant enrique-tion for some blue balls

Mika Zibanejad: 3.13: at least a partial response to Moira’s question last week “Wasn’t he supposed to be good?”

Wasn’t this team supposed to be good? Maybe once upon a time, but I can only assume that Brent Burns has taken the Moilers GM’s attention away from where it ought to be. The first table shows that the Moilers have the most to gain of any team in terms of puck luck, but I prefer the mismanagement viz. Brent Burns infatuation as an explanation.

13. WBS Parkers

Frans Nielsen: 14.29; guy will start playing more like Leslie Nielsen eventually

Nathan MacKinnon: 2.94; don’t call it a sophomore slump yet

Some of you might think that the Parkers would be the laughing stock of the league if it weren’t for the Rordiques, but I actually think they are far more poised to compete for 12^th place than you think, a position no team should ever be ashamed of finishing.

14. Teeyotes

Matt Niskanen; 13.57; but how could he be any worse?

Dustin Brown: 2.08; unlike his face, this number will become less ugly over time

I chose Niskanen over Johnson (his only other player over 13%) because I really want to highlight how shitty Niskanen is. I say there’s no way he puts up 25 pts this season, now that he’s removed from the friendly surroundings of Sid and Geno. It’s ok, though, cause Holden and Hjalmarsson are guys close to the territory of Brown’s absurdly low OISH%, so the Teeyotes can join the Parkers and Moilers in the battle for 12^th.

15. Vanrooser Canicks

Tyler Toffoli: 17.74: more like Tyler Too Phony

Jonathan Huberdeau: 5.66: I reluctantly predict a morsel more

I wish I had a wonderfully warm forecast for this hard luck clan, but seriously, there’s nothing here to suggest they can get any more mileage out of their banged and bruised line-up. I want to like this team’s future, but I can only expect more horrible things to continue to happen. Your 15^th placed team, everybody.

16. Quebec Rordiques

Josh Bailey: 18.18; not that anyone cares, but he’s got some cooling off to do

Jonathan Toews; 3.17; if a volcano erupts and no-one is around to hear it, does it…

Ohhhh, omg, so this is why the Quebec Rord… oh, nevermind.

Limitations of the Analysis

I made a note beside Sami Vatanen which I will follow-up on here. Vatanen is off to a great start, and yet his OISH% of 2.13 would indicate that we should expect even more. One problem is that the percentages presented here are 5on5 only, and ignore PP performance entirely; for some reason, sites like behindthenet.ca don’t provide cumulative stats for all situations, and I beg your pardon for not manually combining these situations myself. In any case, if a player spends significant time on the ice with the man advantage, it might be a worthwhile endeavor to see how his 5on4 OISH% compares to his 5on5 figure.

Finally, we wouldn’t expect that over an infinite number of games, all players’ shooting percentages would converge at around 9%. Some guys are simply better shooters of the puck, so it isn’t fair to attribute all the variation that is seen across the league to luck. Similarly, we can’t call all variation in OISH% luck either, because an important component is simply a player’s own shooting percentage, and well, he might just be a great shooter. He might also be a great passer and frequently set up his line-mates for tap-ins on the doorstep, which a goalie wouldn’t be expected to stop 91% of the time. Nonetheless, OISH% distributions from past seasons show far less variation than shooting percentage, because of course it pools shooting percentages of multiple players together. So despite the limitations just mentioned, it is as good an indicator of offensive luck as there currently is.

Dobber's Projections 2014-15

I did this last year and it was a lot of fun. 

In short, I took our draft day rosters and compared them to Dobber's projected point totals - not because Dobber is infallible (he is not - see my 4th overall pick of Nik Kulemin in 2012), but because his draft guide happens to come in spreadsheet. 

Last Year
First, a review of last year's results.  Many projections were very accurate - a couple were way off, though it is important to consider how many trades/injuries/etc. occur throughout the year. I've bolded each of the projections that were within 2 spots.

	Actual	Projected	+/-
G-Phil's Flyers	1	1	0
Milan Micahleks	2	3	+1
Fylanders	3	9	+6
Mackhawks	4	10	+6
Powder Rangers	5	7	+2
Winter Claassics	6	6	0
Teeyotes	7	12	+5
Joshfrey Krupuls	8	8	0
Moilers	9	2	-7
Dicklas Lidstroms	10	5	-5
Los Samjawors Kings	11	15	+4
Patrik Stefans	12	13	+1
Schizzarks	13	4	-9
WBS Parkers	14	14	0
Vanrooser Canicks	15	16	+1
Quebec Rordiques	16	11	-5

Upcoming Year
This year, like last year, I took the top 9/4/1 projected points from each position and came up with the following projection.

 Like last year the results are interesting, with a few surprises:

1	G-Phil's Flyers	832
2	Joshfrey Krupuls	816
3	Dicklas Lidstroms	810
4	Magnus Faajarvis	795
5	Milan Micahleks	786
6	Los Amjawors Kings	786
7	Mackhawks	782
8	Moilers	779
9	Winter Claassics	766
10	Powder Rangers	760
11	Schizzarks	760
12	Patrik Stefans	755
13	WBS Parkers	723
14	Vanrooser Canicks	720
15	Teeyotes	707
16	Quebec Rordiques	695

The Flyers are the favourites to repeat. Hilariously, the Patrik Stefans are the favourites to end up in 12th place again.

Of note, the tumble of the Teeyotes. They have an underwhelming group of defencemen, lead by Jason Garrison with a projected 37 points, and a forward group that gets pretty sparse after the top few. Noted family friend Alex Killorn is projected to make the Teeyotes roster - that is not a credit to his talent (sorry pal). 

In another unexpectedly low result - the Powder Rangers! Two years removed from a 2nd place finish, and 1 year removed from a season-ruining injury to Stamkos, surely the Rangers would be back in the playoffs? Not with Ryan Miller they won't. The team features a projected above-average defence and offense group, but with a measley 58 points in the net, the Rangers may be in trouble.

On the sunnier side, the Joshfrey Krupuls and Dicklas Lidstroms look poised to challenge for top spot - they boast the #1 and #2 best projected offenses in the league, roughly average defences and average to above-average goaltending.

Anyone else notice the Los Amjawors Kings creeping up the standings each year?

General observations:
Top 4 Total Defence Points

League Average: 166.75 points
Best: G-Phil's Flyers at 199. Second, Claassics at 186 (Subban and a bounce-back from Green). Third, the Magnus Faajarvis at 181.

Worst: Teeyotes with 132. Rordiques, Parkers and sort of surprisingly, the Mackhawks all with 160 or fewer D points. 

Top 9 Total Offence Points

League Average: 520.628 points

Best: The Joshfrey Krupuls, with 574 points. The Dicklas Lidstroms and G-Phil's Flyers are a step behind at 558 and 556 respectively. Then another big jump to the Kings, Mackhawks and Moilers at 542, 541 and 540.

Worst: The Rordiques, with 458. The Vanrooser Canicks with 479 bridge the gap to the Teeyotes, at 495. 

Goaltending
The best projected goaltender belongs to the Milan Micahleks with 95 projected points. They need it - they are, according to this projection, literally the most average team in the KL. Their 520 forward points and 171 defensive points are just about the closest the the league average as you can get. 

This projects a grim year in net for the the WBS Parkers, who might expect 67 points - but at least that is better than the Powder Ranger's Ryan Miller's 58, the lowest projected total of all goaltenders. 

2014 Awards!

In keeping with traditions established by the NHL, the Professional Keeper League Writers Association have voted  in secretive, opaque and entirely unaccountable fashion to determine the winners of this year's awards.

Congratulations to all winners.

Calder: 

The best fantasy player drafted for the first time in the Keeper League.

This year's winner is a tie between the Los Amjawors Kings and the Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers. They drafted Ben Bishop and Nathan Mackinnon respectively. Ben Bishop's 91 points made him one of the most productive goaltenders in the entire Keeper League, while Nathan Mackinnon breached 60 points as a rookie.

HM: The G-Phil's Flyers picked Andrej Sekera, who led all previously undrafted defencemen with 44 points, good for 15th in defensive scoring in the NHL. Also, I guess we give credit, by default, to the Los Amjawors Kings for picking Johnathan Drouin, who despite not getting a single point is a damn fine hockey player. 

Doug Wilson:  

Awarded to the most active GM.

In a SHOCKING development, the most active team was the Patrik Stefans, with 10 entries in the trade ledger.

 

HM:The Fylanders, obviously and unsurprisingly.

Ken Holland:  

Best draft pick.

Like most years, this award is one that generated significant debate amongst the members of the PKLWA. Ultimately, Mark Giordano (7th round, Mackhawks) narrowly edged Evgeni Kuznetzov (9th round, Dicklas Lidstroms) for the award. Kuznetzov is very probably going to be a hell of a hockey player, but it is hard to argue with getting a top 10 defenceman in the late rounds.

HMs: Many, but Mats Zuccarello was taken 143rd overall by the Moilers, producing a stunning 59 points. Gustav Nyquist was taken by the Schizzarks 108th overall with 48 points. The G-Phil's Flyers probably won the Krusell Cup on the strength of 97th overall selection Andrej Sekera's 44 points.
 

Rick DiPietro: 

Worst draft pick.

Gudbranson and it ain't even close. The Los Amjawors King's picked him 35th overall and got 9 points out of that asshole. At the time no one thought it was a that bad of a pick, but one of the advantages to reviewing this in hindsight is exactly that - hindsight. For the record, Ryan McDonagh was available (taken 4 spots later) and had 43 points. 

HMs: None. I mean, Marty Erat was really pretty bad, but not Gudbranson bad.

George McPhee:  

Best Free Agent signing.

Sometimes in life there are beautiful moments of synchronicity, and I present to you a wonderfully complementary pair of awards. 

Tied for the best free agent signing: The Milan Micahleks dropping Matt Frattin for Charlie Coyle, and the Mackhawks dropping Pascal Dupuis for Wayne Simmonds. Both GMs improved their teams with the careful and judicious use of their precious free agent add/drop slots...

Glen Sather:  

Worst free agent signing.

... unlike the Quebec Rordiques and the Matthawks, who respectively dropped Charlie Coyle for Chris Higgins, and Wayne Simmonds for fucking Tommy Wingels. The only reason the George McPhee winners were able to acquire the players they did was because of these decisions.

Mike Milbury:  

Biggest fleecing.

Surprisingly, there was actually not a clear-cut winner this year. After a great deal of debate (which is a credit to the league), the best the PKLWA could come up with is a trade which saw the Moilers send Kris Letang, Alex Edler, Max Domi and a 2014 7th round pick to the Patrik Stefans for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Marc Arcobello, and Dmitri Orlov. The trade is really more a credit to the Patrik Stefans than it is an indictment of the Moilers, who had no way of knowing that Letang was going to bounce right back from a frigging stroke.

Dave Nonis:  

The most useless transaction.

This is a new award category, given to the GMs who generated the most useless, irrelevant transaction over the course of the season. 

On December 15, 2013, the Los Samjawors Kings sent Ryan Malone + 2014 5th round draft pick to the Quebec Rordiques for Chris Higgins. Two non-keeper players trading spaces on two non-playoff teams. If the trade never happened, both teams would have ended up in the exact same place. Entering trades takes several minutes, and this is one chunk of time the administration team will never get back.

HM: Free agent add/drop of Marc Staal for Kris Russell. Really, Teeyotes?

GM of the Year

In spite of the above, the 2013-14 GM of the year is the Teeyotes on the strength of a sound draft, and a couple shrewd moves that will serve the team well for years to come. They saw value in Ben Bishop, who, as noted above, was one of the best goaltenders in the league, giving up Evgeni Nabokov (and Brent Seabrook for Tyler Myers). As well, they managed to swap aging Henrik Zetterberg for Paul Stastny, who who looks to feature on their scoring roster for the next decade. Sometimes it isn't the quantity of moves, but the quality that earns this award. Congratulations Teeyotes!

HMs: The Winter Claassics. On the trade front it was a quiet year, but a series of clever draft selections and moves have moved the Claassics firmly out of the basement and into the top half of the league. 

Perpetual GM of the Year winner/runner-up, the Fylanders have the best overall record in the league and can always be counted on to be active throughout the year, making good moves that improve their team.

The Mackhawks also deserve recognition for a money finish and two consecutive playoff pool wins.