Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Deal or No Deal

You might recall a vlog I posted three years ago to the theme of "what if the keeper league didn't allow trades?" Well, here's the lazy man's version:


RNKNameBUT-FOR TOTALPTS BACKACTUAL TOTALDIFF
1Patrik Stefans63706436
3Milan Michahleks62986389
4Los Amjawors Kings6092862415
5Mackhawks606316104
2Valeri Nickrooshkins5983964244
6Quebec Rordiques598396002
10Teeyotes58552529-56
7Fylanders564735640
8Powder Rangers548895579
9Hartford Taylors5371005370
11Winter Claasics530107524-6
12Wilkes B-S Parkers5221155220
13Phillipsadelphia Flyers519118509-10
14Joshfrey Krupuls515122508-7
16Dicklas Lidstroms4501874500
15Schizzarks44419346016

With the NHL trade deadline less than a week away, and ours less than two weeks away, I figured we should once again take a look at just what kind of impact the many transactions made during 2017-18 have had in the KL.

Before making comment on each GM's trade and swap performance this season, I offer a few obvious conclusions. The GM of the Niskrooshkins has hit the biggest home run and made the biggest vault up the leaderboard. His Mike Milbury counterpart has slid the furthest in the other direction as a result of that unJost enrichment. Not to be outdone, the GM of the Schizzarks has done everything possible to screw himself out of the best lottery odds. And finally, pretty much nothing else that any GM has tried has mattered.


Patrik Stefans

For all of my ferociousness, I've netted a measly 6 points. While the Rask/Rinne swap looked prescient a week after it was made, they both have amassed 29 points since the move. Similarly, I had thought the Getzlaf acquisition from the Krupuls was a coup, but he and Couture have exactly the same number of points since I made it, which is very sad for me. That same deal brought me Giordano for a useless swHeed, but unfortunately if we unwind the clock and measure all of that d-slot's points against Dmitri Orlov's total of 21, I'm down 4! The only goddam thing that keeps me in the black is TJ Brodie, who has netted me a honkin' 11 points since I unloaded Julius.


Milan Micahleks

This GM's goal crease would appear under audit just looking at the IRS activity. The first Greiss/Murray swap did absolutely nothing (seriously, they both got 0 pts in a month), so GMMM completed the do-si-do, picked up 4 pts, and then sent the Pen waddling for former backstopper, MAF. He's come up flowers so far, but I say this move ultimately backfires, with Pittsburgh coming on. That latter trade with the Teeyotes GM also brought him Patrice "Francis Joseph" Bergeron, who might actually be the best player in the NHL, but I don't know how GMMM sleeps at night with the little ball of hate also on his roster. Add to that, he put Marchand's punching bag on the waiver wire for an underachieving DB, the Micahleks are up for this year's most treasonous GM award. 


Los Amjawors Kings

Not much to say here. He pulled the pin on Bobby, and Perron has kept on prickin'. Of note, however, GMLAK might have doubled down a little too hard on the VGKs. Erik Haula has 3 pts in 7 games, and 1 fewer than the swapped out Tomas Tatar over that span. Still, a net +15 has earned this GM the third best adjustment in the KL.


Mackhawks

In attempting to address Bo Ho's injury in early December, GMM sought the leadership of Patrick Marleau to steer his youngsters to a money spot. While that move has netted him 6 pts, Bo is back and has outpaced Paddy Marlie by 1 pt since that return. Also likely overlooked, Mike Matheson has 2 more points than Sami Vatanen. Vat a nincompoop!


Valeri Nickrooshkins

What can be said that has not already been said? Even after we factor in the floor of whatever 10th forward would be the 9th and final slot on GMVN's scoring roster, the Tavares-Jost deal has still netted him 32 points to date. This GM has also done the appropriate maneuvering to deal with injuries, and netted 15 additional points in doing so, but we might also consider that he dropped David Backes for a Nail early in the season. With 21 points in his last 25, David could have provided a more solid backing in Schwartz' absence than the Palat that was ultimately used. I would be remiss not to update the Stamkos-Eichel watch. Since the trade, the Nickrooshkins are down -3. Eicherumba!


Quebec Rordiques

GMQR dropped Matt Benning for Nate Schmidt. That is the best dman add-drop, although it only bests his 5th dman slot by 7 points. Like the GMLAKs, the VGK double down didn't work out so well, as David Perron has outscored William Karlsson by 5 points since the swap. Worth noting, however, only Kucherov, Ovechkin, and Malkin have more goals than Wild Bill this season. Sounds like a keeper to me.


Teeyotes

What can I do to lambaste this team any further? GMT is not the standard against which anything should be compared. The deficit has only increased since the Tavares gift with additional MFn Aho decisions. Is this actually a mockery of the KL, or is GMT(-56) really so far ahead of his time?


Fylanders

In what is shaping up as a candidate for most useless transaction, GMF dropped Johnny Boychuk for Andrej Sekera, who came back from injury, got a second assist on December 29th, and then went 13 games without a point before getting injured again. Boychuk has 3 points since the move in an injury riddled season as well. This GM has been unusually quiet this season, but remains in a playoff spot with about 20 games left.


Powder Rangers

Rounding out the actual playoff spots, GMPR has been among the most active in the KL, but has only gained 9 points. The Stamkos deal might go down as one of the G.O.A.T., and was never meant to pay-off this season, though now the Rangers might need to address a sprained Eichel. I couldn't tell if it was a banana in this GM's pocket or if he was just Athanasiou, but I had some trouble tracking exactly what shook down with AA, Yaks, and Palat; I think he's lost a point there overall. The Slavin/Trouba IRS was a no-brainer injury plug-in and has earned GMPR 5 points, while he's been the beneficiary of the Vatanen deal by another 2. Finally, in what seemed like Anisimov (an easy move) at the time, this team's bench has just accumulated Rust since adding Bryan in Artem's spot. Perhaps that's why it went unreported.


Hartford Taylors

This guy has it all figured out. Why bother?


Winter Claassics

The current loser, but soon to be winner, of the Marleau/Horvat trade this season. GMWC will finish 9th-12th no matter what he does the rest of the way. 


Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers

Can we just remind everyone that GMWBSP drafted Andrei Markov? His 31 KHL points would look okay on this team and position them within striking distance of the Rangers. Unfortunately, the addition of Olli Maatta, though 17 points better than nothing, is not good enough to find a scoring roster spot and displace the cornerstone of this franchise, Jason Demehhhhhhhhhhs. 


Phillipsadelphia Flyers

GMPF deserves some praise here in his efforts to move down the leaderboard. His IRS tank-jobs have moved him to within one of the also-sinking Krupuls in the battle for 14th, and I suspect some additional moves could still allow him to challenge the slowly-upward-floating-half-dead Schizzarks for 15th. 


Joshfrey Krupuls

The modest gains (losses) in the Giordano offload have been offset slightly by the unexpected boosts from Barbashev and Couture. Yet again, we see how difficult it is to make any real waves.


Dicklas Lidstroms

See above. Although the Honka/Brodie trade has netted an 11-pt deficit in itself, it has done nothing to propel GMDL backwards at all, with a scoring roster d-core of Rielly, Hanifin, Sergachev, and McAvoy carrying the way.   


Schizzarks

I am going to lose a bet with this GM with respect to his Reilly Smith waiver signing, but I'm still going to call him out. There is no excuse for holding onto the likes of Sedin, Henrique, Backlund, Nyquist, Spezza, and Yandle, all of whom are destroying the Schizzark tank. Free them now.  









Tuesday, February 13, 2018

I've Got a Double-Digit Lead What Could Go Wrong


The race at the top has tightened over the last few weeks with the Patrik Stefans taking what looked like a solid lead into the weekend, only to see it evaporate as the Nickrooshkins clawed back into first this morning. The fourth-place Los Amjawors Kings are leading the way in February and continue to make up ground on the Milan Micahleks. 

It felt to me that this was shaping up to be the tightest trade deadline and potential closest finish, so I looked back at the standings as of this morning (February 13) in previous years. The chart below shows the spread between 1st, 4th and 8th place this season compared to previous seasons. I discarded the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season and couldn't find data for 2010-11.




A few things jump out at me. First, the spread from 8th to 4th this year is the largest it’s ever been by a wide margin. It’s probably fair to say nobody that is a borderline playoff team is going to jump into the money. Contrast this with 2016, where 8th place was only seven points back of 4th place, and 34 points back of the lead. That year, the Fylanders moved from 7th to 3rd, and the G-Phil’s Flyers climbed from 8th to 4th.

Second, the spread from 1st to 4th this year is very small (16 points), but larger than in 2015 (just five points!). In fact in 2015 just six points separated the top five teams. Those top five remained the top five in the end, but they played musical chairs, finishing 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 1st and 5th, respectively (many of us will remember the tragic final-day collapse of the Patrik Stefans and the unbelievable triumph of the Dicklas Lidstroms). I think the current top four could finish anywhere in the top four. Playoff-bound teams resting their stars is surely going to hurt somebody again. 

The rest of the top eight is not so clear. I did not closely examine the historical likelihood of a team 10-20 points back of 8th at this time making the playoffs, but it has definitely been done. This year I could see the Hartford Taylors, WBS Parkers or Teeyotes (all within 21 points of 8th) doing it, especially with the 8th-place Powder Rangers without Jack Eichel for a month or so. Keep in mind the playoff champ gets $400. 

The NHL trade deadline is Monday, February 26, so I believe (Commissioner SD can confirm) our trade deadline will be west coast midnight on Sunday, March 3.