I've Got a Double-Digit Lead What Could Go Wrong

The race at the top has tightened over the last few weeks with the Patrik Stefans taking what looked like a solid lead into the weekend, only to see it evaporate as the Nickrooshkins clawed back into first this morning. The fourth-place Los Amjawors Kings are leading the way in February and continue to make up ground on the Milan Micahleks. 

It felt to me that this was shaping up to be the tightest trade deadline and potential closest finish, so I looked back at the standings as of this morning (February 13) in previous years. The chart below shows the spread between 1st, 4th and 8th place this season compared to previous seasons. I discarded the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season and couldn't find data for 2010-11.




A few things jump out at me. First, the spread from 8th to 4th this year is the largest it’s ever been by a wide margin. It’s probably fair to say nobody that is a borderline playoff team is going to jump into the money. Contrast this with 2016, where 8th place was only seven points back of 4th place, and 34 points back of the lead. That year, the Fylanders moved from 7th to 3rd, and the G-Phil’s Flyers climbed from 8th to 4th.

Second, the spread from 1st to 4th this year is very small (16 points), but larger than in 2015 (just five points!). In fact in 2015 just six points separated the top five teams. Those top five remained the top five in the end, but they played musical chairs, finishing 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 1st and 5th, respectively (many of us will remember the tragic final-day collapse of the Patrik Stefans and the unbelievable triumph of the Dicklas Lidstroms). I think the current top four could finish anywhere in the top four. Playoff-bound teams resting their stars is surely going to hurt somebody again. 

The rest of the top eight is not so clear. I did not closely examine the historical likelihood of a team 10-20 points back of 8th at this time making the playoffs, but it has definitely been done. This year I could see the Hartford Taylors, WBS Parkers or Teeyotes (all within 21 points of 8th) doing it, especially with the 8th-place Powder Rangers without Jack Eichel for a month or so. Keep in mind the playoff champ gets $400. 

The NHL trade deadline is Monday, February 26, so I believe (Commissioner SD can confirm) our trade deadline will be west coast midnight on Sunday, March 3.