Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Standing Room.

The problem with standings in this league is that they only tell part of the story - only the total number of points accumulated at a given moment in time. Its the way most people measure their progress against other GMs, but its a shitty measure of overall team performance, as teams have not played the same number of games. Present point totals only account for a single slice in time, but a better evaluation of performance requires us to look to past patterns and future estimates. Our pool gives us some handy tools to do just that.

Man-Games Remaining
In terms of the future, the Carmada and my Flyers have 823 and 822 estimated games remaining, compared with the Fylander's 803. 20 points is actually the lowest spread I have seen. Naturally the spread varies from day to day - I have seen it as high as 35 man-games.



It appears that our pool assumes that goalies will play every single game and treats days off the same as games missed due to injury - as a "Man-Game Missed". In that respect, teams with clear-cut, workhorse starting goaltenders have a man-game advantage, the true value of which can only be determined at the end of the year.

In any event, it is an important measure in determining what room you have to play "catch-up" on your opponents and is indicative of how artificially low or high your current standing is.

Man-Games Played
Man-Games Played are a different measure than Man-Games Remaining since they are backward-looking. Currently, Micah has the fewest games played, while the Preydators have the most. Fy has the second most Man-Games-Played, which, coupled with the fewest Man-Games-Remaining, suggests that his current 3rd place point total is inflated by a temporary scheduling advantage.



Man-Games Played is interesting, but it is most helpful as the basis for the best tool we have at our disposal to evaluate our teams...

Point-Per-Game
In light of the man-games remaining problem, the ranking you get when you sort by point per game is, in my view, a far superior indicator of overall team performance to date. Its still pretty early in the season and while a couple shutouts or Pierre Mcguire MONSTER PERFORMANCES™ can cause some significant changes, we are more than a quarter of the way into the season and starting to settle into some scoring patterns. Teams with a lot of slow starts might move up, or injuries might push a team down, but we aren't likely to see a 0.75 PPG team drop to below the Roos' 0.63 (or Roos to climb to 0.80 PPG, for that matter - hey Roos, looking to dump anyone on your roster yet? Email me).

In that respect, PPG is a far better metric than current point totals since it erases benefit of the total number of games played in terms of past performance, and insofar as past performance is predictive of future performance, it helps us in estimating our year-end totals.



In terms of actual point production, the Manitoba Roos is still the worst team in the league - but there are some surprises. Illustrating the benefit of a 20 man-game lead over the Carmada, the 3rd place Fylanders are actually the 3rd-worst point-producing team, sitting 13th place in terms of point-per-game production. Conversely, the 7th place Carmada has the best point production overall.

Another example is the 0.75 PPG production of my 12th place team, tied with the 13th place Dicklas Lidstroms. Dickie and I are both tied with the 2nd place Calgary Wittmen. In my view, the PPG standings suggest that the Dicklas Lidstroms and my Flyers are artificially low in the standings while the Wittmen are artificially high.

In any event, none of these are perfect measurements but are all better than the raw point totals. When you look at your position in the standings (and despair or rejoice, depending), click the "Man Games" tab to get a better sense of how you actually stack up against the competition.

9 comments:

  1. Greg, you might be a bigger hockey pool nerd than I am. Best line: "[Fy's] current 3rd place point total is inflated by a temporary scheduling advantage."

    One thing for everyone to keep in mind is that the man games played and man games remaining and ppg stats do not take into account the non-scoring roster. So players that would be contributing but for injuries, like Teehan's Craig Anderson and Mark Streit, do not enter the equation. The Fylanders have been very lucky with injuries so far.

    Anyway, as Commissioner I declare the winner of the pool will be determined by points per game.

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  2. The Fylanders have been very lucky with injuries? Vinny out, Hossa out twice. Far from lucky... This entire post is given too much emphasis.. try focusing on over inflated goalie/player stats... I will respond in kind.

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  3. I don't understand what you mean by over inflated goalie/player stats. Some goalies and players are overachieving (and some underachieving) but thats part of any pool. There's nothing "artificial" or "inflated" about, say, Halak's stats. And you'll recall my previous post about how little goalie stat have to do with the overall standings in the grand scheme anyways. If shutouts were worth far less, the Fylanders might be in 1st place in raw points, currently, but would still be in the bottom half of the league in points per game.

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  4. I need to blog - but here's a start.

    Basically the over inflation makes PPG and man games less relevant. Halak will not get 180 points, niether will Price (despite being on pace for that)...

    The easy argument is "oh that'll all balance out for everyone" but truth is I'll take a team like Dickie's who's underachieving thus far and has no standouts, over a team with Halak, Price, Stamkos, St. Louis etc because there's no way they keep up (maybe Stamkos but im not a believe yet)...

    Then you look at a night like tonight where I only had 3 man games but still didn't lose much ground. Greg you had 9 and only got 5 points. Mainly cause you have no depth and your bottom guys/dmen man games are far less useful

    So ya I may have more man games played but the projections fail to take into account inflated stats. If you believe that all your guys are underachieving and will do better than you are far better off...Looking at your squad Greg, there appears to be no major over/under achiever so your projection totals are probably far more accurate than Dickie's

    That's all for now.

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  5. PPG is backwards looking and is the best pure measure of a team's performance relative to other teams to date. We can also use it to estimate future performance. You're very right that it's not a very effective measure since it relies on players continuing to perform at a consistent level, which doesn't often happen in hockey. That said, its the best objective measuring stick we have

    What you're suggesting are subjective measures of relative team strength. You might be right that Halak or St. Louis are overachieving, but they could just as easily keep up their pace. Maybe I highly value Stamkos and subjectively believe he will win the scoring title. Maybe other people, subjectively, feel he's a lucky, no-talent hack who won't break 75 points this year. We don't know and can't know until the season is over. Neither person is right or wrong until the season is over. Hockey pools are by their nature gambling. There is simply no way to incorporate subjective analysis of a given player's future scoring output - especially since no one would agree anyways.

    In any event, the main point of the post was the advantage of man-games remaining. If Team A is 10 points behind Team B, but Team A has 30 more man-games to play than Team B, then man-games remaining are clearly relevant, and PPG is clearly relevant to estimating the ability of Team A to catch up. It doesn't mean much with 800+ games left, but the closer we get to the end of the season, the more it matters.

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  6. The obvious solution is for Fy to make subjective predictions of each team's final point total, in a segment called the Fyling Cabinet / Hockey SimpliFy'd / etcetera, so we can compare them at year's end to the objective projected totals.

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  7. Micah go draft more islanders... or try coming up with a tiebreaking system that makes sense.

    The Man Games stat makes one major error... They leave the non-scoring roster as a non-scoring roster.... Ex) Vinny is on pace for more points but he is left in the non-scoring roster, which he wouldn't be in at the end of the year based on his PPG so far. So yes I have the least man games left but my final point total is wrong because the scoring roster is inaccurate. Go have a look if you don't believe me (Micah)

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  8. I definitely believe you, Fy, because I pointed it out when I gave the caveat that "man games played and man games remaining and ppg stats do not take into account the non-scoring roster. So players that would be contributing but for injuries [...] do not enter the equation."

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  9. I just like giving you a hard time thats all.

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