The Fair Market Value of an Add/Drop

This blog post is dedicated to my friends, the GMs of the Teeyotes and the Patrik Stefans.

The recent kerfuffle over the trade of an add/drop gave me reason to wonder: is there a discernible market price for an add/drop? Does it fluctuate throughout the season and has it changed over the years? What factors affect it?

There is limited data. In my unscientific analysis I've included all transactions in which add/drop(s) and pick(s) were traded, but no other players changed hands. We can only go back to the 2012-13 season when we started allowing GMs to trade add/drops. There are a total of 10 such transactions. 

In the 2012-13 season, only the Fylanders "purchased" add/drops for draft picks. The price was not steep. On trade deadline day, the Fylanders traded their 5th rounder for the St. Jewish Blues' 6th rounder and two add/drops! They also traded a ninth rounder previously acquired from another team (no doubt as a throw-in) for an add/drop and the Mackhawk's 9th rounder. A very low baseline price was established.

By this standard, the Teeyotes actually fleeced the Fylanders a few days ago by netting an 8th for a 10th. Of course the 2012-13 trades were made on trade deadline day, where I suppose the value of an add/drop that is not going to be used approaches zero. Still, I would think in either year a competitor, if approached, might have paid more to keep those add/drops out of the Fylander's hands. Alternatively, the swaps could have been used to aid in tanking (if the team is not above tanking) rather than to move up a handful of picks in the crapshoot of the 8th, 9th and 10th rounds.

In 2013-2014, the Powder Rangers established an entirely new benchmark when they gave up their 2nd rounder for the Joshfrey Krupuls' 5th rounder and two add/drops. This happened in November, with the P-Rangers facing a season-ending injury to Stamkos and having already used their two swaps to acquire Jiri "too loose" Tlusty and Josh "not hard enough" Harding. So perhaps the price is higher earlier in the season and when the GM has limited options. 

On trade deadline day that season, we saw the G-Phil's Flyers give up their 4th-round pick for the Patrik Stefans' 6th and add/drop. This was still significantly more than the Fylanders paid last year, but Greg had a goalie injury to address and he was in it to win it (which he did). 

In 2014-15, the Teeyotes established a middle-ground of sorts in January when they sold one add/drop to the Dicklas Lidstroms for a 6th round pick, with his own 9th going the other way. Eleven days later he sold his other add/drop to the Joshfrey Krupuls for a 6th round pick with no pick going the other way, so the price had increased in line with Keynesian economic theory. Both the Dicklas Lidstroms and the Joshfrey Krupuls were going for it and they finished 1st and 4th respectively. 

In late February that year, the Dicklas Lidstroms were able to pry an add/drop from the Winter Claassics for a slightly lower price: a 7th round pick. At the trade deadline, in what I believe is the only recorded instance of a competitive team trading an add/drop to a tanking team, the Michaleks acquired the WBS Parkers' 9th round pick. The WBS Parkers were able to finish last, and were rewarded with... Dylan Strome?

So far in 2015-16, in order to acquire an add/drop in early January we saw the Los Amjawors Kings give up a 7th round pick, and a few days ago we saw the Fylanders give an 8th for a 10th. 

The only tentative conclusions I am prepared to make at this point are:

1) the price of an add/drop tends to peak early in the season and drop as the deadline approaches. This makes sense as long as there are ample teams with swaps remaining that don't plan to use them.  If we see a year where many teams are competing to make the playoffs and there are few swaps remaining, the price of an add/drop may actually rise toward the deadline. 

2) The Fylanders always pay less than any other team. It's kind of like Argentina's economy where there is the official "blue market" exchange rate and an unofficial "black market" exchange rate. While the Fylanders deal in dollars, the rest of us deal in pesos. 

Self-serving PS: I have no more add/drops this year and would like one in my back pocket, so GMs, feel free to come to me before you accept an offer.