Sunday, October 7, 2018

Draftermath: 15 Thoughts (cont'd)

8. Continuing the predicted finish from best to worst is easy:

Rordiques
Phillipsdelphia Flyers
ToNY Islandersons
Fylanders
W-B/S Parkers
Schizzarks
Dicklas Lidstroms
Victoria Krugars

Actually I have no idea. I respectfully disagree with GMSW's suggestion that the Nickrooshkins had the best draft. I thought the Mackhawks did very well – trading up for Wheeler is the type of bold move that wins championships. There were a surprising number of  40-50 point players available in the late rounds I don't think I got enough of them.

9. Something  probably all the talk about the new prospect system  caused GMs to go overboard on prospects. With nearly every GM having more prospects than they can keep, it's going to be a buyer's market. Only the Nickrooshkins have less than two; most teams have at least four; and the Victoria Krugars lead the way with nine! This summer the Nickrooshkins are going to be able to buy any prospect they want for a 10th round pick.

10. Aside from Barrett Hayton, the prospect I had rated highest that didn't hear his name called was Martin Kaut, drafted 16th overall by Colorado. He's one that traditional scouts and analytics guys agree on. He's in the AHL for now.

11. I'm a big fan of the Potato GM (not GMGP), who ranks draft-eligible players using a very simple formula of points per game, with adjustments for position, age and height. The idea was to establish a baseline that NHL teams, with their vast scouting departments, should be able to beat. Of course, they don't. That formula in 2014 would have told a lot of teams to draft David Pastrnak rather than Michael Dal Colle or Jake Virtanen. I used his ranking for 2018 to select Isac Lundestrom, who went 23rd overall to Anaheim but was ranked 5th overall between Kotkaniemi and Zadina.

12. Here are how many NHL draftees of a given year were taken in the KL draft of the same year:
2011: 6 (including Adam Larsson!)
2012: 9 (including Cody Ceci and Ryan Murray!)
2013: 10 (including Hunter Shinkaruk!)
2014: 6 (all studs)
2015: 10
2016: 13
2017: 14
2018: 17

First overall in the NHL has gone first overall in the KL for the last seven years, other than 2012 when Aaron Ekblad fell to 4th (Sam Reinhart went 1st).

13. It's really tough to identify a best and worst draft pick. I think the W-B/S Parkers and the Hartford Thalers are going to regret passing on Zadina as he could be a point-per-game franchise-altering keeper, whereas Elias Lindholm and Ryan Ellis, we pretty much know what they are. Edit: I wrote this before Zebulon went off for 3 points in 2 games on Calgary's top powerplay unit.

14. The slowest drafters were by far the Valeri Nickrooshkins, then the Joshfrey Krupuls, followed by the G-Phil's Flyers.

15.  The Hartford Thalers wanted a prospect but hadn't had time to do their research. The Milan Micahleks had done the research but wanted nachos and didn't want to make nachos. They worked out a deal that led to GMTB selecting Morgan Frost in the 7th round. According to Byron Bader, he has a 68% chance of being a star in the NHL.



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