Monday, January 3, 2011

The Case for Larger Scoring Rosters

Since I am so clearly being destroyed this year in the pool, I have been trying to figure out if it was a failure in strategy (partly), the unexpected enormous suckitude of my first two overall picks (largely), or a lack of appreciation of the way the scoring roster would affect things (somewhat).

My strategy was that high end defencemen and goaltending would separate me from the pack more quickly than the many many forwards who score between 40-60 points. This strategy has been exploited beautifully by Teehan who is in the top despite horrendous forward depth. I was confident that I would be able to be do a good job in the bottom half of the draft with my forwards, and have been largely successful in that regard. However, given the way the scoring roster works, that does not help you at all. So, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the standings would be if the scoring roster was 12 forwards, 5 defenceman and 1 goalie. Now, obviously I appreciate that people would have made different choices if this was the scoring roster system, but for the sake of interest, I've done it this way anyways. What I've done is added the three highest non-scoring forwards and highest non-scoring defenceman to each team's overall score:

Team Rank Points Added Points New Total New Rank






Micahleks T - 1 388 53 441 1
Teeyotes T - 1 388 41 429 T - 6
Jewish Blues 3 384 48 432 4
Flyers 4 383 46 429 T - 6
Mackhawks 5 382 57 439 T - 2
Krugars 6 380 48 428 8
Wittmen 7 379 60 439 T - 2
Powder 8 377 34 411 10
Shizzarks 9 372 48 420 9
Fylanders 10 370 61 431 5
Lidstroms 11 360 29 389 T - 13
Moilers 12 352 57 409 11
Preydators 13 345 44 389 T - 13
Claassics 14 339 65 404 12
Roos 15 297 39 336 15

A couple things worth noting: This doesn't actually affect things quite as much as I had thought it would with some exceptions. Obviously, Fy, Stefan and I benefit the most as the result of a number of strong depth players. Powder and Dickie suffer from the complete lack of support on their benches and Roos continues to be awful.

I think that increasing the scoring roster is something that should be looked at in the future as it makes sense that if we're going to draft all these guys, more of them should count for something. This is particularly true given the currently small number of players who are going to be kept at the end of the year. There is a good chance that the lower scoring players will not count and will not be retained, so why pick them at all?

5 comments:

  1. I just saw this now - nice one Dave! The biggest surprise to me is Powder's team.... he definitely falls off in the forward position after his ninth man. Fragile!

    Roster and Scoring Roster size is something that can be looked at... in fact, we can look at anything and everything this summer. Maybe even strike a committee or two. But the idea of having some extra picks is that those slots can act almost like a farm team. You can snatch up the future stars and wait for them to develop, with little harm to your scoring roster. Or you can use those picks on more reliable 40 point guys to have a buffer against injury and NJ-style suckitude. Or a mix. Weighing the value to your roster of Kyle Beach in 2012 vs. Eric Cole next year are decisions we love to agonize over. Crafting a strategy and seeing what works and what doesn't work is at least half the fun (and also, I gather, the motivation behind this great post).

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  2. My team actually fucking sucks, it's not after my 9th man it's after my 7th.

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  3. I hadn't really thought about increasing the size of the scoring roster, but I'm in favour of increasing the size of the keeper roster.

    The problem is that with 50% of your roster being turned over each season, there is no reason to really try for those "future stars." You can't look to 2012 because the keeper roster spots are so precious - the best you can do is grab a young player and hope he hits this year. I can get that in a one-year league.

    My top 10 players account for 338 of my points and have an average age of 29. My bottom 10 players account for 141 points and have an average age of 23.9. At a glance, most rosters look pretty similar.

    With the bulk of points coming from our top 10 players who are also veterans, and with this league so close, I can't afford to keep Ekman-Larsson if it means giving up Erik Karlsson, for example.

    I get that keeping only 10 players helps with significant turnover every year, but there should be a benefit to careful, well-rounded drafting as well.

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  4. I don't understand tables. Can you do this in a pie chart?

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  5. Man, my pathetic internet skills were barely able to get a table - you should be glad I didn't explain it all in paragraphs.

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