Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Top Ten Greatest KL Draft Picks of 2010


It's late enough in the season that we can fairly reflect on our draft-day decisions. Here is my subjective ranking of the top ten draft-day steals. I took into account the fact that goalies were overvalued this year (my bad), so picks had to be compared within their positions (i.e., forwards to other forwards, etc.). I sometimes considered injuries and sometimes considered future potential, but not really. It's more art than science. 
Without further ado... 


10. Martin St. Louis, Victoria Krugars: 1st round, 15th overall
Second in scoring with 91 points - who thought he would outscore Stamkos?

9. Dustin Byfuglien, Teeyotes: 11th round, 156th overall (35th defenceman taken)
Fourth among defencemen in scoring, 52 points.

8. Kris Letang, Moilers: 12th round,169th overall (38th defenceman taken)
Sixth among d-men in scoring, 48 points - without Crosby and Malkin for half the year. More potential than Byfuglien. 

7. Alex Pietrangelo, Preydators: 17th round, 242nd overall (65th defenceman taken)
19th among defencemen in scoring, 41 points and just 21 years old.

6. Claude Giroux, Victoria Krugars: 6th round, 76th overall
Drafted after teammates Carter, Briere and Richards but leads the team with 71 points (12th overall). 

5. James Wisniewski, Fylanders: 15th round, 214th overall (53rd defenceman taken)
8th in defencemen scoring with 47 points.

4. Keith Yandle, Manitoba Roos: 8th round, 107th overall (17th defenceman taken)
Third among defencemen in scoring with 58 points. People used to make fun of Keith Yandle.

3. Lubomir Visnovsky, Victoria Krugars: 8th round, 106th overall (16th defenceman taken)
First among defencemen with 63 points - career best 67 from 05-06 is beatable.
2. Carey Price, Schizzarks: 16th round, 233rd overall (25th goaltender taken)
Yes, 25th goaltender taken. Second to only Henrik Lundqvist in KL points, thanks to eight shutouts.
1. Teemu Selanne, Winter Claassics: 17th round, 253rd overall.
10th in scoring with 75 points, 8th in points per game. Late-round gambles on aging superstars can pay off. If we could do the draft over again, he would go second round. Great pick, DC.
Honourable mention: Rafalski (Schizzarks, 8th round, 4th in d pts per game), Ryan Whitney (Fylanders, 8th round, 3rd in d pts per game), Burns (Claassics, 15th round, 43 pts), D. Sedin (Wittmen, 7th overall, leading scorer), Ribeiro (Dicklas, 7th round, 66 pts), Lundqvist (Dicklas, 8th goalie taken, first in KL points), Tanguay (P-Rangers, 13th round, 59 pts), Couture (P-Rangers, 15th round, 53 pts as rookie), T. Ruutu (Moilers, 18th round, 50 points), Vrbata (Roos, 299th/300, 46 points - but Micah picked for Roos because he had to leave early). 

Any great picks I missed?
Other observations:
1. A lot of defencemen made the list, and I think that reflects my observation that there was more unpredicatability at defence this year than at forward. Forwards, with few exceptions, either did roughly what we expected, or disappointed. The top ten scoring forwards were all drafted in the first three rounds, with the exception of Teemu Selanne. The top ten scoring defencemen were drafted in the 8th, 5th, 8th, 11th, 5th, 4th, 12th, 15th, 6th, and 9th rounds, respectively. 

2. There were two distinct "waves" of goalie pickups. 14 goalies were taken in the first five rounds. Just one was taken in the next five rounds. Nine were taken in rounds 11 to 15, and just three were taken in the last five rounds. This aligns with what we observed during the draft: the majority of GMs took a solid goalie early, with a few choosing to wait... when some GMs started taking their second goalie around round 12, the rest panicked and added their second (or first and second) goalies. Price was the Schizzarks' second goalie pick, after Backstrom in the 13th round.

3. Worst pick candidate:
Nikita Filatov, P-Rangers, 9th round. 

6 comments:

  1. Nice analysis. I'd add Dubinski to that list (he's got high numbers considering the number of games missed - I believe he was drafted in the last 3 rounds)....

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dubinsky was on my original list of honorable mentions - not sure why I took him off. List was getting too long, but definitely a good 17th round pick.

    Anyone who wants to can view all the draft picks in order and my rough work on the third page of the draft spreadsheet: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=ttyJ4S_mMtLbohbFLLJJMQA

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'd love for people to post regarding side bets for the last couple of weeks:

    I know there's the Jokinen battle.

    Here's a couple others:

    1) Fy vs. Stefan - overall winner gets a steak bought at Prime ($40 value)... while the loser must attend in the jersey of the winner's choice and feed at least one piece of steak to the winner. The winner also gets to make his facebook picture of being fed for a total of 24 hours.

    I thought this was offer but after making up 35+ points in 9-10 days it could get interesting if the lead is trimmed to <10 going into the last week.

    2) Fy vs. Stefan vs. Matt:
    -The overall loser in the pool must buy a case of beer for the others to be consumed during a playoff hockey game. Matt's got some work to do.

    ANY OTHER SIDE BETS FLOATING AROUND?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Great work Micah!

    If I had any money, I would make side bets, but I don't.

    I also think the P-Rangers Havlat pick was great. An injury prone idiot on a shit team in the 10th round, that grabs almost as many points as my Mike Richards!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks for the shout out J. I would also give a shout out to Erik Cole in the 17th round and, despite his injuries, I would be happy to have taken Stafford in the 18th round like Schizz did.

    I agree that Filatov is the worst pick of the draft. G-Phil's pick of Zherdev in the 6th has to get consideration though.

    ReplyDelete
  6. With Ryan Miller not travelling with the Sabres,and Wideman and Nielsen now out for the season, I am all of a sudden super-vulnerable at the top. Even though I am projected to win by 25, my PPG is going to slump massively, and if Niemi and Thomas and Price grab even one more shut out for any of the guys chasing me, then damn!! Especially since the Sabres shut out the Rangers the other night but Miller wasn't in net so I missed any points.

    Nothing to do be watch the next 8 days intently.

    ReplyDelete