Trade to Announce (DOMINOS!!!!?!??)

The trade deadline is looming, and we have our first post-Olympic deal. 

Feb-26-2014
The Teeyotes send injured Henrik Zetterberg to the Joshfrey Krupuls for Paul Stastny

Both GMs provided me with their analysis of the trade, but in order to keep Teehan's interest I'm going to copy and paste his tl;dr version:

Zetterberg no play hockey. Stastny play hockey good.

Not much else to say. The Teehans are going for a money spot and the cost to do that was Stastny. The Joshfrey Krupuls made the decision to double-down of their previous Lupul trade to build towards future years. 

Long term a young Stastny > a declining Zetterberg, but it is hard to call a winner in this since the teams motivations are different. 

Stay tuned to this blog over the next while as teams begin to declare themselves buyers and sellers. Time is ticking. 

KL Week in Review: Week 18 (also some transactions)

BREAKING NEWS: The Patrik Stefans are no longer in 12th place.

They are in 13th, which is the first time in weeks they have been in any other spot but 12.

There are plenty of other observations that could be made, but really, let's get right to the two recent-ish transactions. There are a couple new sheriffs in town, and they're at the helm of the Teeyotes and the Winter Claassics. 

Jan 16 2014
The Winter Claassics send Loui Eriksson, Brian Gionta and a 2015 1st round draft pick
to the
WBS Parkers for Patrick Marleau, Saku Koivu and a 2015 5th round draft pick.

The 5th place Winter Claassics can taste the money spot and are willing to pay to get there. Marleau is on the back side of his career but is playing PPG hockey. The WBS Parkers did well to get value for him now as there is no telling when his game could nosedive. 

Great trade all around and I know at least one top 4 GM is pissed at himself for not kicking the tires on Marleau earlier. With a few new faces entering the race this could be a very interesting trade deadline.

Jan 18 2014
Not to be outdone, the surging Teeyotes (seriously, 44 points this week to lead the league in points both on the week and the month) drop Kris Russell and add Jason Demers.

Demers has 24 points as a defenceman and would be on most teams scoring rosters. Russell, on the other hand, has been hurt. Even if both players were equal, going for the guy playing on the Sharks over the guy playing for the Flames is always a good bet. 

KL Week in Review: Week 16 (plus some transactions)

16 weeks in and things are starting to get a little interesting again:

Notes for the week:

• The G-Phil's Flyers hold on 1st place is increasingly tenuous as both the Fylanders and Micahleks continue to close the gap. 
• The Micahleks have had a huge week with a league-leading 44 points, 11 of which came last night
• The Powder Rangers continue to cling to 4th place - remarkably, though, the Winter Claassics were in 4th place for portions of the last week
• The Los Amjawors Kings have slowed down somewhat but remain a viable playoff team, much to the surprise of early season prognosticators
• The Patrik Stefans are really, really good at holding 12th place. 
• The Schizzarks teased the bottom of the league last week but have managed to pull themselves up to a comparatively respectable 15th place. 

Injury notes :

The Winter Claassics are, remarkably, the only 100% healthy team in the league right now. There are some key injuries to a lot of teams that may result in some shuffling in the standings over the next week or two:

• G-Phil's Flyers - Mike Babcock says not to expect Pavel Datsyuk back "any time soon". With both the Fylanders and Micahleks coming fast, 1st place is very much up for grabs
• Milan Micahleks - Ryan Getzlaf isn't broken but his return date is unknown. The Micahleks expect to win, but these injuries are letting the Fylanders catch up.
• Teeyotes - Standout goaltender Ben Bishop has a sprained wrist. He is experimenting with different taping strategies but his return date is unknown. The Teeyotes are 9 points from a money spot but only 8 points from 9th place - these are critical lost points.
• Mackhawks - Johan Franzen (22 points in 30 games) has been a steady producer for the Mackhawks, but is at least a week or more away from returning from his concussion. The Mackhawks need their depth to hold 8th.
• Moilers - Luongo, Eric Staal, and Patrik Elias are all day-to-day with no real timelines for their return. Lengthy absences from these players could spell doom for the Moiler's playoff chances
• Dicklas Lidstroms - injuries to Koivu and Alex Steen are hurting the Lidstroms playoff chances. Gaborik's injuries woes this season have already started the Lidstroms off on the wrong foot. Word is these guys may even be ready in time for the Olympics.
• Patrik Stefans - Both Couture and Galchenyuk - key young contributors - are out with hand injuries. Both are weeks away from returning.
• Schizzarks - An MCL injury to Parenteau and a foot injury to Parise have been a significant factor in the Schizzark's precipitous fall to the bottom of the league. Neither player is skating and both face lengthy recoveries. 
• WBS Parkers - Evander Kane is expected back shortly, but stunning rookie Thomas Hertl (a possible cornerstone forward for the expansion Parkers) is likely done for the season. The team has not said as much, but estimate as long as 9 months for recovery. There is no guarantee he will come back in the same form either - rough break for this team. 

Transactions:

There have been a few transactions over the last while. 

Jan-2-14
Moilers drop Lee Stempniak and add Andrew Cogliano.

Quickie analysis: Cogliano sucks less than Stempniak. Great mid-season pickup.

Jan-2-14
Patrik Stefans drop Ondrej Pavelec and add Anton Khudobin

Quickie analysis: System's spreadsheets have finally pumped out a winner (why there is a heavy unheralded Soviet bias in System's system is beyond me). Khudobin has filled in admirably for the injured Cam Ward, posting a 6-1-0 with a .936 save percentage this season.

Jan-5-14 - Trade

Joshfrey Krupuls send Joffrey Lupul and a 2014 7th round draft pick to the


Fylanders for Dustin Penner and a 2014 3rd round draft pick

Quickie analysis: The Fylanders dump slumping Penner for (surprise surprise) a Maple Leaf. Lupul is the better player and the Fylanders got him cheap. Headscratcher for the Krupuls but maybe they think Penner's time in the press box will jumpstart his production.

Jan-8-14 - Trade
Quebec Rordiques send Andrew Ladd and Antoine Vermette to the
Los Amjawors Kings for Mikael Grigorenko and Curtis Glencross

Quickie analysis: The Kings can taste a playoff spot and maybe even a money spot. They need depth scoring and got it in Ladd and Vermette. The price was promising youngster Grigorenko. Interestingly, Grigorenko has refused to report to the Q and his NHL future is in question, but his potential is huge. We'll have to wait to see what happens to declare a winner. 

Transaction

Pretty big stack of players moving teams yesterday (and this close to the Christmas break - for shame). 

The Dicklas Lidstroms send:
Jakob Silfverberg, Dougie Hamilton, Artem Anisimov

To the Milan Micahleks for:
Justin Williams, Slava Voynov and Steve Downie

I confess to being a bit confused by this trade for the Micahleks. They are trading three guys who have combined for 52 points for guys who have a combined 27 points. Also, Hamilton and Silfverberg are both currently injured. 

Presumably the Micahleks want a top 2 finish, but in the short term the Lidstroms get the edge in this trade. Long term, the Micahleks are well positioned with a couple of good young players. 

Here's my assessment from the outside looking in:


Silfverberg has long term upside and could be a PPG player, but not this year. He had 7 points in 11 games, but that was at the start of the season when the Ducks were pouring goals into the net. If he hits 45 points I will be surprised. 

Justin Williams, on the other hand, has 22 points in 33 games. Much of that can be attributed to Jeff Carter's absence, but he is good for 50 points this year.

This year: Williams = Silfverberg
Two years from now: Silverberg >> Williams

Dougie Hamilton is a long-term keeper and should be a 45-50+ pt d-man - but again, not this year. He is on pace for 20 points and sits on the IR with a lower body injury. He is, however, prospect-eligible.

In exchange, the Micahleks give up Voynov - who should also be a 45-50+ pt d-man longer term. Remember, this dude led the Kings in scoring in the playoffs last year and is tied with Wayne fucking Gretzky for 2nd place in franchise history for playoff GWGs.

This year: Voynov > Hamilton
Two years from now: Voynov = Hamilton

Lastly, Steve Downie has 17 points in 28 games to Anisimov's 13 in 32. These guys actually have remarkably similar career numbers to date. Anisimov probably has more top end talent but is an "enigmatic Russian" - also he plays for the Blue Jackets. 

This year: Downie > Anisimov
Two years from now: Downie = Anisimov

Transaction

Two related transactions to announce:

 

The Fylanders send Kimmo Timonen + a 2nd round pick in 2014 

To the Quebec Rordiques for Dan Boyle + a 7th round pick in 2014 + FA add/drop

 

Condition:  Boyle must OUTSCORE Timonen the rest of the way otherwise the 7th turns into a 4th.

 

Then the Fylanders:

Add Colton Orr and drop Sean Monahan

Add Sean Monahan and drop Brent Burns

Add Brent Burns and drop Colton Orr (using their newly acquired FA add/drop).

Conditional trades are pains in my ass and don't get commentary.

STAMKOS MOVES

... to the bottom of the Powder Rangers roster. 

Two separate but related deals today:

The Powder Rangers trade their 2014 2nd round pick to the Joshfrey Krupuls for their two remaining FA add/drops + 2014 5th round pick.

Then: 

The Powder Rangers drop Stamkos and add Carl Hagelin.
The Powder Rangers drop Stalberg and add Stamkos.

Winners: Well, the Krusells got a 3 round bump at the draft for free, since the FA list is pretty slim at this time of the year. The Powder Rangers have replaced Stamkos with Carl Hagelin, so it is difficult to call that a "win" in the conventional sense, but they will probably stay in the hunt for at least a playoff spot. Hagelin has 8 points in 8 games and may well stay on the top line on Nash's return so there is some hope there. Also, with one of the deepest forward corps in the league, the Powder Rangers still have some potential trading juice to take a run for the top if they can find any sellers.

Losers: KL Headquarters is all about reaction gifs right now, so everyone out there who had been salivating at the prospect of trading for Stamkos:

  

Transaction (and thoughts about goalie/D-man importance)

November 12, 2013

The Milan Micahleks send Dan "one-point" Girardi + 2014 first round selection

to the Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers for Brian Campbell

Obviously this is a first round draft pick for Campbell. There is no doubt that Campbell has been an excellent fantasy option for many years - even in his injury-shortened "down" season in 2010, his 27 points would have been good to make many scoring rosters. Last year he scored 46 points pro-rated and had 53 the year before. Clearly, the Micahleks, tasting 1st place after a stunning leap from 15th, are going all-in early to win it this year.

However, Campbell is getting older and showed signs of slowing last year. His 9 points in 18 games is actually below his career average, and well off his high water marks. For the WBS Parkers, this is a classic and well-timed rebuild move.

November 9, 2013

The G-Phil's Flyers send Ondrej Pavelec, Brandon Saad, 2014 6th round draft pick + 1 FA add/drop 

to the Patrik Stefans for:Jaroslav Halak + Kris Versteeg

The G-Phil's Flyers need a goalie to replace injured starter Pekka Rinne. 

Rinne is a goalie who, despite playing behind a pretty bad team, manages to be one of the top point-getters in the Keeper League year-to-year. However, with his hip issues, his trade value is at an all-time low. The vultures were circling Rinne's rotting hip, but at the end of the day, the Flyers opted to hold on to him. 

Halak has been off to a hot start, and while he tends to find himself either a) in a tandem situation or b) hurt, he is clearly a better option for the Flyers than Pavelec, at least on a stop-gap basis.

The Stefans, in turn, get a promising young forward in Brandon Saad, and the FA add/drop flexibility to pull a still-legal Fy Gambit depending on how Pavelec/Schneider plays out. Given how good Schneider is going to be moving forward, it was likely that Halak would have faced the chopping block, and Stefan managed to get much better value than goalies traditionally get in the off-season.

Counterpoint to Stefan's Post?  

I think these trades provides a sort-of counterpoint to Stefan's excellent post earlier. Goalies and defencemen may not correlate strongly with championships, but the difference between first and second place in each of our years has been 15, 11, and 9 points (and is currently at 11 points). The average difference between rankings last year was a mere 9.33 points. This is a surprisingly competitive league, and 10 extra points can mean moving up into playoff position, or into the money, or into 1st place.

As Stefan's post indicated, the Micahleks have one of the strongest forward groups in the league thus far, and one of the strongest goalies. The also have one of the weakest defences in the league. A mere 10 extra points from Brian Campbell might mean the difference between 1st and 2nd for that team. 

The same is true of the Flyers who do not feel safe at all at present.

Transactions

I have a few to catch up on here. 

10/22/2013 Trade

The Quebec Rordiques send:

Dustin Brown, Brendan Smith, 2014 6th round draft pick

to the Dicklas Lidstroms for:

Drew Stafford and Michael Del Zotto

The Quebec Rordiques noted, correctly, that they "needed a D with Boyle going down and [their] D being a mess generally." Clearly Del Zotto is struggling early but in most other years would be competitive for a keeper roster slot. 

In exchange the Rordiques had to part with Dustin Brown, who could challenge for a scoring roster spot. Stafford, despite early struggles, is no slouch either, being barely removed from two consecutive 50 point seasons.  Perhaps there might be some chemistry with Matt Moulson? 

10/26/2013 FA pickup

The Los Samjawors Kings drop Ryane Clowe and add Mike Santorelli

Ryane Clowe sucks. I hate his name. Mike Santorelli is the hot hand right now. Has a much better name. Fun Fact: I learned, in adding this trade, that there is a dude named "Michal Macho" drafted in 2000 by the Sharks. He has not played an NHL game and is not a goon, both of which are disappointing.

10/28/2013 Trade

The Los Samjawors Kings send:

Ben Bishop and Tyler Myers

to the Teeyotes for:

Evgeni Nabokov and Brent Seabrook

Rumours have suggested that the busy Los Samjawors Kings have been trying to move Ben Bishop for some time - and for good reason. Bishop has seized the starting job in Tampa and has posted very good numbers. The Teeyotes - in desperate need of any goalie period - had to give up Brent Seabrook to get him. Look for the surprisingly engaged Teeyotes to attempt to shore up their defence corps if they wish to be a playoff team this year. 

Seriously I am so excited to see Teehan make a trade.  

Transaction - Six player shake-up!

The Wilkes-Benham/Scranton Parkers send:

Tim Thomas + Timonen + Matt Read + a 10th round 2014 pick + a conditional pick (see below) 

To the Fylanders, in exchange for:

Mike Smith + Nikitin + Tatar + a 7th round 2014 pick + a conditional pick (see below) 

Condition: If Matt Read makes the Fylanders Scoring Roster (or otherwise would if Fy trades him or add/drops him) an additional trade takes place (my 6th round 2015 pick for Romany's 10th round 2015 pick).

Analysis:
Two old fashioned hockey trades in a row??
 
Pretty easy to read between the lines here - the Fylanders are blessed with one excellent goalie in MAF (in fantasy hockey anyways, but I digress), which made Mike Smith expendable. The Parkers needed a goalie - any goalie - in a huge way, because otherwise they have a pretty solid team so far.

The cost to get Mike Smith was Kimmo "There's no I in" Timonen "at least not where you'd think". In classic Fylanders fashion, they also managed to extract Matt Read, who has high end scoring potential but has disappointed since his rookie season. 

Tomas Tatar makes more sense on the Parkers young team than the Fylanders. 

Transactions (first trade of the season!)

Two transactions to report.

Add/Drop
10/19/2013 Powder Rangers drop Kyle Palmieri and add Jiri Tlusty

Hilariously, the day the Patrik Stefans dropped Jiri Tlusty, he found his scoring touch, potting 2 while playing on the top line with Semin and Staal. The Powder Rangers almost immediately picked him up. Get your side bets going on Tlusty vs. Arcobello! (hint: Tlusty will score more points than Arcobello this year). 

Trade

10/22/2013 
The Dicklas Lidstroms send:

• Drew Stafford
• Michael Del Zotto 

to the Quebec Rordiques for:

• Dustin Brown
• Brendan Smith 
• Rordiques 6th rounder in 2014

A good old fashioned hockey trade.

The Rordiques have lost Boyle for at least a while and are generally weak at that position. Del Zotto should fill a need now and in the future as he may make the Rordique's keeper list, assuming he (and the Rangers) bump their atrocious start. In exchange he traded from a position of strength - his fairly deep set of forwards. Dustin Brown was expendable for the Rordiques. Stafford may or may not be an impact player for the Rordiques this year - if not, he will be a mere filler to make the trade happen.

On the flipside, the Dicklas Lidstroms have defence depth to spare, and in the words of the Lidstrom's GM, "drafting Enstrom made [Del Zotto] expendable." Brown should flesh out the scoring roster a bit and at least provide some stability in one of those final two scoring roster slots.

Add/Drop
10/22/2013 Dicklas Lidstroms drop Brendan Smith and add Sami Salo

Related to the above trade, the Lidstroms couldn't resist Sami Salo's 5 points in 7 games. The guy finally - finally - had something close to a full season last year. Injury threat aside, Salo should give the Lidstroms some much-needed veteran depth on a team featuring Jared Spurgeon, Patrick Wierciock and Ryan Murphy as top 4 scoring roster d-men.  Not a bad set of young defencemen, no doubt, but they have 230 NHL games combined (Spurgeon is the most experienced with a career high of 23 points).