Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Well that was a treat. While I only get the pleasure of seeing most of you on occasion, it’s always a good time. To get thirteen of us together on a Sunday with the Toronto crew always provides for a lot of enjoyable hockey banter.

Whether it’s the zoom in of the nachos, to seeing the pain in Romany’s face, or the panic in Rory’s as the lottery balls were declared, it’s always a pleasure to get together and as Greg put it “ it’s one of the best things to come out of law school.”

With the hopes of creating more banter and debate, before we all get back to real life, I thought I’d create a quick blog post of the Top 5 potential best draft picks and the Top 5 potential worst draft picks.

It’s obviously quite easy to look to McDavid or Eichel as the best picks, or to look at a 9th rounder and wonder what the GM was thinking, so these picks are a little more off the board and should be fun to watch as the year plays out. As we all know our original impressions can be brutally wrong (Okposo).

In the past I’ve limited myself to get involved in these types of online debate so as not to offend others. My critique of your hockey knowledge is not meant to be personal but all in good fun.

Without further delay here are the Top 10 draft picks to watch as the season unfolds. (Feel free to add other picks in the comment section, as this list is extremely arbitrary)

Potential Colossal Mistakes

5) Anders Lee (15th overall by Greg): While I seem to be in the minority on this one, Lee has produced a career high of 41 points. If he doesn’t hit 50, surely this is a bust. Sure Lee may end up alongside Tavares but can he really sustain himself on the top line? He certainly could have a breakout year and get 50-55 points (basically his ceiling) but wouldn’t a Koivu or Kreider been a safer choice with more upside? An unnecessary gamble for a guy who just needs to fill out his SR to end up in the money yet again.

4) Dylan Larkin (11th overall by Micah): Larkin’s career high in points going back to Bantam hockey is 56. While that was accomplished in 30+ games, this forward doesn’t scream high-end offensive potential. More importantly he’s facing a lot of tough competition at C in Detroit. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Helm are all likely to slot in ahead of him and knowing the Detroit philosophy of developing guys in the A, I believe that Larkin should’ve been available later on in the draft. If Larkin sticks with the big club all year it may have been a gamble worth taking. This one will take at least 2-3 years to play out. 

3) Victor Rask (31st overall by Rory):
Rory: “He’s the first line C in Carolina”
Opposing GM (Powder I believe): “Ummm Rory have you forgotten about Eric Staal”
Rory dropped the ball with this pick. With 33 points last year, most pundits put him under 40 for this season. Carolina has trouble scoring. While I expect a bounce back year in Carolina it’s highly doubtful that Rask is going to be an offensive force in the NHL. This pick was the low point for Rory’s draft.

Oh and with the next pick Dickie took Hanifen. Who needs the 3rd overall pick when they’re rebuilding anyways…

1B) Valteri Filppula (5th overall by Moira): I think most had the enigmatic forward slotted in the 2nd-4th rounds. Instead of opting for youth, Moira opted to take a player that MAY play with Stamkos or he may end up on line 3. The gamble could pay off, similar to Okposo with Josh, but if it doesn’t I expect this pick to get an early consideration for the worst pick of the draft.

1A) Griffin Reinhart (51st overall by Roos): After hitting the jackpot in the lottery, Roos let the ball drop. Somewhere he read that Reinhart was a top end player that could be a point producer one day. Maybe he didn’t notice they were talking about Sam and not Griffin. Reinhart put up a whopping career high of 36 points in the WHL (as a 17 year old) and then let his numbers digress as an 18 and 19 year old. While his AHL numbers haven’t been horrible, I’m not quite sure how he’s NHL relevant. He’s also about #10 on the EDM depth list right now as a D-man. My early prediction is that he won’t get 10 points this year in the NHL and will finish as one of the worst pick of the 2015 KL draft… but hey you got EICHEL!

Honourable mention:

*    Chris Kunitz (8th overall by yours truly) – could be a bust

Now to the Top 5 Best Picks of the Draft:

5) Cam Talbot (97th overall by Romany): Will EDM finally be good? Well given its Romany’s team, with this selection perhaps they don’t need to be quite yet. Talbot was one of the most sought after goalies this off season and if the Oilers ever put those draft picks to good use, he could be the goalie of the future there. While the disappointment of a McDavid-less team will take months and possibly years to forget, it’s possible that Talbot may provide this squad a viable option in net moving forward.

4) Ivan Provorov (113th overall by Romany): Given that many of the top draft picks were taken early on, Provorov was a steal at 113th. While he may not play in the NHL this year, with his offensive upside, he has a good chance of becoming an everyday NHL D-man that will produce solid numbers. Romany, for at least part of the draft, had a clear plan about the direction of his team for this season.

3) Noah Hanifen (32nd overall by Dickie): This was touted as an absolute steal at the draft. While he certainly fell more than he should have, I do not believe he’ll be an offensive weapon as his career plays out. That being said, at 32nd overall it was a gamble worth taking. It looks like he’s sticking in the NHL (at least for now) and could be a viable trade option for Steve later this year.
Remember: “Guys it all starts in October”

1B) Antemi Panarin (24th overall by Powder): A gamble that I think will pay off. Anyone surrounded with players like Toews and Kane could become high end point producers. His phenomenal skill and offensive upside make him a steal at 24th overall. He’s more NHL ready than Marner and Strome and others that were taken before him and he’s in a system that will harness his offensive prowess. If he’s able to stick in the top 6 in Chicago, than this might be of the picks with the most impact in the first two rounds of the draft. Hat tip.

1A) Brad Marchand (62nd overall by Micah): The little ball of hate fell a long way. For a player that should be able to put up 50+, this was a safe, smart and reliable pick that should’ve been made by many other GMs. I sat patiently waiting, hoping I would get the opportunity to snag him at 76th overall. Clearly the scars he left Vancouver fans have our poolies avoiding him like the plague. Marchand has the potential to put up 60, and if he does, it may help lead Micah back to a competitive money spot finish. Well done.

Honourable Mention:

*    Andre Sekera (36th overall by Moira) – QB on the PP in EDM?
*    Nick Leddy (28th overall by yours truly) – I trade up 6 picks and down 34 so this better work out.
*    Matt Mack in general (sorry buddy). A team that lacks any fundamental direction that was attempting to go young but than drafted Jagr and a bunch of other irrelevant plugs. This once prominent franchise is lacking the proper balls (and now jock strap) to go through a proper rebuild.

Best of luck!

Fy


 


4 comments:

  1. Great post, Fy. I think Filppula went exactly when he should have, just to the wrong team (i.e., one that should not be competitive this year).

    I'd nominate as a worst pick Charlie Coyle at 17 to Rome (I am qualified to make this assessment as a two-time Coyle owner) and as a best pick future Norris trophy-winner and Nylander puck-feeder Morgan Rielly at 26 to the P-Stefs.

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  2. Excellent post, Fy. I really enjoyed it.

    I am shocked that I didn't have multiple entries on the worst picks list. I am probably spared only by the fact that I didn't have many higher round picks to use this year. It went pretty rough.

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  3. This was a lot of fun to read, Fy. I hope we remember to look back on this at season's end.

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  4. After watching Dylan Larkin play today can I please have a mulligan. He's on the wrong list!!

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