This is a completely unscientific and subjective blog post. It adds nothing to the collective knowledge of the league. It is not entertaining to read because Micah refused to ghost write it for me.
I always hear/participate in a lot of bellyaching at this time of year from GMs whose team is frustratingly - and uniquely - underperforming. My observation is that we put on our shit coloured glasses and see only the slow starters on our team while ignoring the obvious and unsustainable hot starts from the loser nobodies we drafted in the eight round.
So, I looked through the Projected Totals to identify the players on each team who are unlikely to maintain their current pace, for better or worse, and give each team a ranking on a scale of -10 to 10 on how likely it is that their team will regress (-10 being likely to regress, 0 being likely to remain steady and 10 being likely to improve).
Schizzarks:
Worry: Drew Stafford (72) is off to an adorable start, but fucking come on. Honourable Mentions: Duclair (64), Parise (92)
Be Happy: Rick Nash is fat and deeply unlikeable, but he'll score more than his projected 25 points. Honourable Mention: Hank (PT 41)
Compared to some other teams, there aren't any insane outliers on this team, other than goaltender elephant-in-room Carey Price, who probably won't go 62-0-0 with 20 shutouts. But, this analysis is about skaters, so I'm giving Schizz a healthy 2.0.
Krupuls:
Worry: You can Mark-off the Krupuls star defenceman for far fewer than the 91 points he is on pace for. He's been watching too many Putin highlights. Honourable Mention: Zetterberg (113).
Be Happy: Looking at this triggers my PTSD, but Kopitar will recover from his slow start and pot more than 31. Honourable Mention: Giroux (47)
This team also appears to be mostly in good shape. 3.5.
Moilers:
Worry: Where to start. Oh, I know. David Krejci (140) will not have the best season since Mario scored 161 points in 1995-96. Honourable Mentions: Kuznetsov (129), Gallagher (82), Henrique (92) (ZOMG SCHIZZ!!!), Zibenejad (72).
Be Happy: ... or don't. Zuccarello (49) and Filppula (36) should improve, but mostly, this team is packed full of worry.
Well, goaltending should improve on this team, but this roster is due to fizzle and fizzle hard. -7.5.
Teeyotes:
Worry: Mark's hands are not made of Stone (get it?), but 92 points is way out of his range. Honourable Mentions: Bergeron (93), Wideman (46).
Be Happy: Johnson may have a sophomore slump, but not to the tune of 46 points. Also, Tanguay (35).
The downs outwieigh the ups on this team. -2.5.
Flyers:
Worry: Domi has reached is Maximum potential over his first few weeks in the NHL, but a 91 point player he is not. Honourable Mention: Seguin (123), Hamhuis (20)
Be Happy: With his Backes up against the wall in a contract year, David will press on and get more than the currently projected 20. Saad as it may be for the rest of the league, Brandon will bump up well above 36 on a run-and-gun Torts team. Also, Shattenkirk is back from injury.
Look out league, things are going to get better before they get worse. 5.5.
Kings:
Worry: LOLZ Mike Cammalleri projected to pot 113 points. Some other folks are kissing the high side of their potential (Tarasenko at 92, McJesus at 82, Little at 72), but nothing else jumps out.
Be Happy: I don't know whether Crosby even counts in this analysis because he is not on Sam's scoring roster, but it's probably a safe assumption that he will eclipse 31 points. Probably before Christmas. Also, Vatanen (10), Del Zotto (12).
Cammalleri will get 60 points less than that and Crosby will get 60 points more. The rest of the roster could hold or improve. 1.0.
Stefans:
Worry: Pacioretty, like the rest of the Habs, is off to a wildly entertaining and ridiculous start. He will not get 100 points. Honourable Mentions: Gaudreau (91), Ovechkin (122), Dupuis (0)
Be Happy: Datsyuk will come in and get 50 points in the 65 games he plays. Kesler (10), Couture (25), Semin (27), Staal (41) will also all see significant improvements.
Stefan is mostly right to be optimistic, as the underperformers outnumber the overperformers. 8.0.
Parkers:
Worry: Eriksson will not get 82 points, even if he manages to play in his first ever full NHL season (probably - did not look that up). Honourable Mention: Oshie (82).
Be Happy: I would have said Evander Kane if he didn't break his knee tendons the other night, although even with that injury should get more than 31 points. Should get a bump from Keith (26) as well.
This team is below average and likely to remain below average. -1.0
Micahleks:
Worry: One of the biggest outliers in the league, John Carlson is on pace for 117 points. What a world. Honourable Mentions: Benn (123), Neal (92), Larkin (72), Perreault (72).
Be Happy: Most commentators think that Getzlaf will turn things around and score more than 10 points. I'm not so sure but whatever. Also, Hamilton (9), Kucherov (18), Sharp (31).
This team makes no sense, but ultimately the hot starts outweigh the cold ones. -2.5.
Nickrooshkins:
Worry: Hedman's a beauty, but a 91 point player he is not. Honourable Mention: Krug (70), Yakupov (73).
Be Happy: Voracek is playing like a Russian with a contract, but should still get more than 35. Eichel (31), Skinner (20), Nikushkin (14).
This team has plenty of space for growth. 3.0.
Powder Rangers:
Worry: Despite being the 1B best pick in the draft according to well-respected KL pundit Fy Virani, Panarin will not maintain a 73 point pace. Honourable Mention: Klingberg (72).
Be Happy: Duchene better not get fucking 24 points. Gaborik better not get fucking 10 points. Hornqvist better not get fucking 10 points. McDonagh better not get fucking 10 points. The only reason I wrote this blog post is so that I could write the preceding four sentences.
This team better fucking get better. 4.5
Fylanders:
Worry: Well, Pickuphockey isn't great with injuries, so maybe this is a weird math thing, but Backstrom is somehow predicted at 138. Honourable Mention: Kunitz (10).
Be Happy: A few arguable underperformers on this team, but one has to think that Jordan Staal gets at least a single point this year. Leddy (9) stands out as well.
This team is pretty close to where it should be. 0.0
Claassics:
Worry: Blake's been Wheeler-ing and dealing, but 113 points? No way. Honourable Mentions: PK (91), Mike "Turn your Head and K" Hoffman (92), Edler (35).
Be Happy: I promised Claassen that Boone Jenner would score 55 points, so he'll improve on his 46 point pace. Maybe. Foligno (46), RNH (46) and Marleau (51) may be in line for slight improvements in production.
More downside than upside here. -5.5.
Rordiques:
Worry: Plekanec just signed a two year deal so has no reason to continue trying hard. Will regress from his 91 point pace. No one else on the team really has any points, so no honourable mentions to ... uh ... mention.
Be Happy: Jonathan hasn't been on his Toews to start the season and will not play second fiddle to Panarin for the whole season. He's only on pace for 46. Also, Campbell (20).
This team has a lot of young players who could yet surprise, but not a lot of outliers here. -1.0
Lidstroms:
Worry: Despite having Panarin around to pass him the puck, Kane's 109 point pace will drop when he has to start reporting to a parole officer in Buffalo a couple times a week. Honourable Mention: Turris (82).
Be Happy: Perry will eventually stop playing dodgepuck and put up more than 10 points. Honourable Mentions: Sedin (51), Fisher (20).
In addition, to the above, a bunch of players on this team have room for marginal improvement. 2.5
Mackhawks:
Worry: God we all love the guy, we really do, we can't stop talking about it, but Jagr's 102 point seasons are behind him.
Be Happy: A couple of notable losers on this team: Kessel (41) and Hossa (36). Cody Hodgson should get a point or two as well.
This team should improve slightly. 1.0
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