To provide a starting point for the analysis, I took Dobber's projections and assembled a keeper roster based on what would produce the most projected points above replacement value. I used 40 as replacement value for a forward, 30 for a defenceman and 70 for a goalie. That's basically what you could get from the free agent pool at any time. That's also pretty close to the bottom keeper slot average that we used to establish prospect thresholds (39 and 28), which means if a player is projected below that level, he probably not going to help your team this year. Of course this is all based on projections, which you can quibble with. For most teams the maximum points-above-replacement resulted from keeping one goalie and either 6F+3D, or 7F+ 2D. However, one team was best at 8F+1D, and another was, surprisingly, best at 5F+4D. Also, a couple of teams might be better not keeping a goalie, assuming they don't trade for one, but I have assumed that each team kept its best goalie.
I also looked at anticipated points from the draft based on draft position and number of picks. Of course some GMs will be targeting prospects but it is useful to know how many points relative to your peers you could potentially pick up if you were trying to pick up scorers. I assigned each pick a value based on anticipated points above 40/30/70 (as explained above). So the first overall pick was given a value of +25 because I figure you could get a 65-point forward or a 55-point defenceman or a 95-point goalie (think last year's Patrik Laine, Auston Matthews, Shayne Gostisbehere, Sergei Bobrovsky, etc.). The assigned value drops rapidly and then slows, tapering off at +1 in the 9th round. This resulted in a draft strength score ranging between 44 for the Los Amjawors Kings who are missing their first and third-rounders, and 94 for the Powder Rangers who have two firsts, two thirds and two fourths. Of course not all of your picks will count toward your scoring roster, but this is about your chance of drafting a better-than-replacement-level player relative to other GMs, not about raw points. Therefore, the total points is not raw projected points but projected points "above replacement". It serves as an anchoring point for expectations. I would call any two teams within 10 points of each other effectively tied.
To refer to GMs I have used initials because this a public blog and these fantasy sports habits are shameful. After that long-winded intro, let's get to it...
Jagr Division
Fylanders
Keeper points above replacement: 192Draft strength: 69
Overall: 261 (9th)
I have the Fylanders protecting 7F+2D, but I'm not excited about any of the fish being thrown back into the pond. GMFV pulled chute in the middle of last season and started to retool the roster, making a 6-for-6 trade with the Mackhawks that added likely keepers Elias Lindholm, Dylan Larkin and Rickard Rakell. On its face, the team is markedly improved over last season, in which it finished 14th and inspired a memorable, if self-indulgent, blog post from GMFV. But in my view it is far from competitive and needs more dramatic changes. I just don't see any elite young talent in the pipeline to complement, and eventually replace, Backstrom and Pavelski. The Fylanders really screwed themselves in the 2015 draft when they took Chris Kunitz 8th overall and David Pastrnak went 9th.
If I know GMFV, he will not go full-tank. He'll draft well enough and he'll be able to wheel and deal this team into a playoff spot. But I think that's giving short-term interests priority over long-term goals. I know how badly GMFV wants to win the Krussel Cup, and I don't see this roster getting him anywhere close before Backstrom starts to decline with age.
Phillipsdelphia Flyers (name change to be confirmed)
Keeper points above replacement: 232Draft strength: 62
Overall: 294 (5th)
Admittedly I struggle to make a fair assessment of this team. It is far removed from its days of back-to-back championships, but it has never missed the playoffs and it placed 4th the last two seasons - a testament to GMGP's skill in gradually turning over the roster while remaining competitive. This year is more of the same: I have the Phils ranked 5th in the pre-season, with their score taking a hit from the projection for Pekka Rinne as a below-replacement netminder. I could see Rinne having a huge bounce-back season, but I could also see Juuse "me taking these starts" Saros taking a lot of starts (Juuse what I did there?). GMGP will seek to do what I did last year and find a long-term replacement starter in the draft. There are usually one or two available.
This is still a very strong roster than can expect to compete for a money spot, but teams like the Mackhawks are younger and right on their heels. The Valtteri Phillipsulas are, for probably the first time in their history, projected without an 80-point scorer, although either Malkin or Seguin (or for that matter, Karlsson), if healthy, could easily clear that hurdle. The two prospects, Kevin Fiala and Julius Honka, are worth keeping but only Honka has a real chance to move the needle this year, and he's not projected to crack 30 this season.
What to do with Brayden Point is the big question. He scored too much to be a prospect, but can you keep him on your main roster over Max Domi, Derek Stepan or Jordan Eberle? Probably not, so GMGP may be wise to test the market for Point (or if he believes Point is ready this year, perhaps it's time to sell Malkin, who is 31 and hasn't played 70 games in any of the last five seasons?)
Quebec Rordiques
Keeper points above replacement: 198Draft strength: 61
Overall: 259 (T-10th)
This projection has Brayden Schenn scoring 70 points, so take it with a lick of salt. The Rordiques have two decent goalies but neither is projected above replacement level. Can Elliott start (never mind win) the majority of Philly's games? Can the Devils not completely suck in front of Cory Schneider? I'm not sure I'd wager my season on either.
I have the Rordiques keeping seven very good forwards and two defencemen. In addition, GMRJ probably wants to keep both Tkachuk and Reinhart, but at what cost? Eric Staal put up 65 points last year. Jonathan Toews is team captain! So I have the Rordiques leaving both youngsters behind, demonstrating the central failure of our prospect system - GMRJ targeted them, drafted them, coddled them, and now they are too good to be prospects, but not good enough to be keepers, so they go back in the pool. All of this leads him to ask: what was the point? To which I ask: why did you abstain from voting (effectively voting 'no') on prospect reform?
The Rordiques have to make a push here and just make the damn playoffs. It's been six years. You'll be $600 in the red this October, GMRJ. Show the owners something. Show the fans something.
Winter Claassics
Keeper points above replacement: 190Draft strength: 67
Overall: 257 (12th)
In the last four years the Winter Claassics have finished 6th, 8th, 5th, and 8th. Impressive consistency, and for that reason the preseason ranking of 12th is a bit disheartening. However, that point total is only seven points back of 7th, and I said above anything within 10 points should be considered a draw. I also think some of the projections are low (Landeskog 46?). So I do think this is a strong contender to make the playoffs. But it's very tight between 7th and 14th and a lot of GMs are going to be disappointed.
I have the Claassics as the only team keeping 8F+1D. That still leaves Tanner Pearson and Patrick Marleau up front and Mike Green on the back end exposed or as possible trade bait. Okay, probably exposed. GMDC has Kiefer Bellows as his only potential prospect (I believe). Bellows has left Boston University and will play for the Portland Winterhawks next season. He's definitely no Clayton Keller but I guess he might be worth holding onto for another year?
This team has a nice mix of players before their prime, in their prime and past their prime. I wouldn't blow it up, but it will need an exceptional draft and some good luck to finally crack the top four.
Wilkes-Benham Scranton Parkers
Keeper points above replacement: 175Draft strength: 61
Overall: 236 (14th)
From 16th to 14th to 9th last year, the WBS Parkers appear to be trending in the right direction. The team trailed only the Los Amjawors Kings and the Patrik Stefans in points per game last season and had the fewest man-games played of any team. Many pundits were already calling them a sexy sleeper pick to make the playoffs this season. Unfortunately, Dobber doesn't see it that way. I've double checked the math and it's right, but I gotta disagree. I like this team and if it all comes together they should be in the playoffs. Make no mistake, it is much closer to the teams ahead of it than the teams behind it.
In my opinion, however, GMRBP has stunted his team's growth in the same way that GMRJ has, by being unwilling to embrace being bad for a year or two in the beginning in order to be really good later. Last year the team almost became respectable, but now it's at a cross-roads: sink, swim, or continue treading water? Sometimes you are treading water with wet clothes. You could keep treading water for a long time but ultimately those wet clothes are weighing you down. You need to stop treading water and ditch the wet clothes, even if you sink a bit. Then, unencumbered by the water-logged clothes, you'll rise to the surface, triumphant. That's the best metaphor I could come up with.
Ivan Provorov unfortunately is not a prospect, but I think he has to be kept. I have the Parkers keeping 7F+2D, and some of those forwards are great (Leon Draisaitl) but some of them are not keepers on a playoff team (e.g., three of Tyler Bozak, Evander Kane, Tomas Tatar and James Neal?). If this team is not in at least 8th place after the first third of the season I would tear it all down and build around Provorov, Draisaitl and Cam Talbot.
Los Amjawors Kings
Keeper points above replacement: 285Draft strength: 44
Overall: 329 (3rd)
The impetus for this analysis was wanting to know if the reigning champs were beatable. Thankfully, they are, and in fact they 'should' be beaten by two teams, and could be beaten by a few others if the bounces go the right/wrong way.
The team's weakness is that it lacks scoring depth. After McDavid, Crosby, Tarasenko, Burns and Holtby (okay, arguably the best defenceman, best goalie, best two forwards and another top-15 forward in our format), the roster falls off a cliff. Relying on a few players for the bulk of your points is a risky strategy.
GMSJ doesn't make a selection in the draft until 32nd overall. Maybe he doesn't need to find a 60-point forward; maybe he can win with 50-point forwards and 35-point defencemen (as he did last year). But if he doesn't draft well, a lot of things will have to go right for GMSJ to win again. The big five will have to be mostly healthy. And he'll have to find a way to make deals with other GMs who will be naturally cautious in approaching trades, particularly after what happened with Brent Burns last off-season.
I am not going to give any roster-tinkering suggestions to GMSJ. I've done that in the past and look what it's done for him - turned him into a champion. He's on his own now.
Mackhawks
Keeper points above replacement: 238Draft strength: 48
Overall: 236 (6th)
After two consecutive playoff championships (fun fact: nobody other than the Mackhawks has won the playoffs when the Mackhawks qualify for the playoffs) the Mackhawks missed the playoffs by three points in 2014-15 and saw the writing on the wall. To be accurate, it took one more season and a 14th-place in 2015-16 finish to convince GMMM to go all-in on the rebuild (holding onto captain Phil Kessel of course). But he finally did it, and in doing so published the blueprint for other GMs to emulate. The lottery win for Patrick Laine last year accelerated the rebuild to the point that the Mackhawks were unintentionally competitive last season, a year ahead of schedule. They traded some assets to support a playoff push that was ultimately unsuccessful but highly entertaining.
I don't think GMMM will miss what he traded. The team currently boasts the third best group of forwards in the KL (I have them keeping 7F+2D). They are so stacked I have them discarding Trouba and Giordano on defence. Their only weakness is their draft position as GMMM is missing his third and fourth-round selections. I'm calling it - 2017-18 marks the return of the Mackhawks. They are an absolute lock for the playoffs and an outside chance to earn money.
This year GMMM doesn't need prospects and can take a more balanced approach in the draft, but must nab a couple of reliable 50-point players. The Mackhawks boast four excellent prospects in Mikko Rantanen, Travis Konecny, Timo Meier and Matt Barzal. They can't keep them all, so if you have space for prospects you should be calling, not texting, GMMM. Tell him I sent you, and while you're at it, ask him for advice on turning around a franchise.
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That was our biggest of three divisions. Stay tuned for the next two divisional breakdowns on consecutive weekends.
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