Keeper points above replacement: 272
Draft strength: 66
Overall: 338 (2nd)
Last year's Krusell Cup runner-up (also the runner up in 2015) boasts the most dangerous forward corps in the league. I have this team keeping 7F+2D and its seven forwards are projected to average 71 points. To put that in perspective, there are five KL teams who don't have a single forward projected to score 71.
Draft strength: 66
Overall: 338 (2nd)
Last year's Krusell Cup runner-up (also the runner up in 2015) boasts the most dangerous forward corps in the league. I have this team keeping 7F+2D and its seven forwards are projected to average 71 points. To put that in perspective, there are five KL teams who don't have a single forward projected to score 71.
Last year's Krusell Cup runner-up (also the runner up in 2015) boasts the most dangerous forward corps in the league. I have this team keeping 7F+2D and its seven forwards are projected to average 71 points. To put that in perspective, there are five KL teams who don't have a single forward projected to score 71.
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The back end, led by Drew Doughty and Ryan Suter, is a better top pair in real hockey than fantasy hockey, but Tuukka Rask still projects to be a solid fantasy goalie. Prospects Kyle Connor and Frank Vatrano did not factor into the analysis based on Dobber's projections, but both certainly have to potential to crack 40 points this season, further bolstering an already scary offence.
Based on keeper projections alone the P-Stefs would rank third. Factoring in their average draft position (compared to the LSJ Kings' poor draft position), they leapfrog into second place. Given the strength of this roster and the team's history of near-misses, GMSW absolutely must go for it this year. He'll need to draft a couple of good defencemen to do that but it's conceivable he already has his 9 scoring roster forwards. This GM has also been known to make shrewd preseason trades so I wouldn't be surprised if the Stefans look different before the draft. He's also extremely motivated (see text screencap).
Based on keeper projections alone the P-Stefs would rank third. Factoring in their average draft position (compared to the LSJ Kings' poor draft position), they leapfrog into second place. Given the strength of this roster and the team's history of near-misses, GMSW absolutely must go for it this year. He'll need to draft a couple of good defencemen to do that but it's conceivable he already has his 9 scoring roster forwards. This GM has also been known to make shrewd preseason trades so I wouldn't be surprised if the Stefans look different before the draft. He's also extremely motivated (see text screencap).
With a little luck, by this time next year GMSW will no longer have to face the shame of being the only former commissioner without a championship ring (to kiss when we get together for commissioner alumni scotch tastings).
Dicklas Lidstroms
Keeper points above replacement: 110
Draft strength: 85
Overall: 195 (16th)
If the Dicklas Lidstroms’ pattern of winning the KL every three years were to continue, the team would win this year. I don’t see that happening - in fact the only pattern I see is a possible repeat of being the automatic Commissioner. This team is without a doubt the worst in the league and possibly the worst in league history since K-Blat retired. There are some nice prospects in Alex Nylander and Mikhail Sergachev, but the team is still a good 2-3 years away from competing.
A year ago after the DLs finished 8th I thought they would bounce back in a hurry. Where did they go wrong? Well, here is a short list of players drafted after GMSD selected Jiri Hudler 25th overall last year: Alex Wennberg, Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, JT Miller, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, Brayden Point, Clayton Keller, etc.. Of course you could make the same criticisms of any GM, but the players GMSD seemed to be targeting (Vlad Namestnikov, Nick Bonino, Alex Killorn) were players that you might draft if you’ve got great keepers and you just need some 40-point players to round out the roster (although none of them actually scored 40 points). They aren't the top-flight talents a recovering team needs to draft, suggesting GMSD, like me, was mistaken in thinking the team was close to competing.
This season, GMSD has the benefit of the second-strongest draft position, and I'd like to see him put it to better use. It is strongly recommended to not half-ass the rebuild. Sell the veterans for whatever price can be had during the season and restock the cupboards. Corey Perry, Daniel Sedin, and Alex Steen have no business being on this team's keeper roster for 2018.
Teeyotes
Keeper points above replacement: 187
Draft strength: 68
Overall: 255 (13th)
The Teeyotes' best finish all-time was 3rd, and their worst was 11th. Last year they finished 5th, so to see them ranked 13th is a bit surprising, - but again, they are within 10 points of the 7th-ranked team, so its more accurate to say they start the season in a pack of six other equivalent teams chasing that 6th-place team. Some projections seem a bit low (Nylander 54? Try 154.)
Keeper points above replacement: 110
Draft strength: 85
Overall: 195 (16th)
If the Dicklas Lidstroms’ pattern of winning the KL every three years were to continue, the team would win this year. I don’t see that happening - in fact the only pattern I see is a possible repeat of being the automatic Commissioner. This team is without a doubt the worst in the league and possibly the worst in league history since K-Blat retired. There are some nice prospects in Alex Nylander and Mikhail Sergachev, but the team is still a good 2-3 years away from competing.
A year ago after the DLs finished 8th I thought they would bounce back in a hurry. Where did they go wrong? Well, here is a short list of players drafted after GMSD selected Jiri Hudler 25th overall last year: Alex Wennberg, Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, JT Miller, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, Brayden Point, Clayton Keller, etc.. Of course you could make the same criticisms of any GM, but the players GMSD seemed to be targeting (Vlad Namestnikov, Nick Bonino, Alex Killorn) were players that you might draft if you’ve got great keepers and you just need some 40-point players to round out the roster (although none of them actually scored 40 points). They aren't the top-flight talents a recovering team needs to draft, suggesting GMSD, like me, was mistaken in thinking the team was close to competing.
This season, GMSD has the benefit of the second-strongest draft position, and I'd like to see him put it to better use. It is strongly recommended to not half-ass the rebuild. Sell the veterans for whatever price can be had during the season and restock the cupboards. Corey Perry, Daniel Sedin, and Alex Steen have no business being on this team's keeper roster for 2018.
Teeyotes
Keeper points above replacement: 187
Draft strength: 68
Overall: 255 (13th)
The Teeyotes' best finish all-time was 3rd, and their worst was 11th. Last year they finished 5th, so to see them ranked 13th is a bit surprising, - but again, they are within 10 points of the 7th-ranked team, so its more accurate to say they start the season in a pack of six other equivalent teams chasing that 6th-place team. Some projections seem a bit low (Nylander 54? Try 154.)
I have the Teeyotes keeping 7F+2D, but that leaves two of Brent Seabrook, Matt Dumba and Justin Schultz exposed. It might make more sense to ditch Lucic instead but how can you drop anyone who might play with McDavid? Dubois is a fine prospect, though not expected to be make an impact this year. I'm not sure I'd tie up a roster slot keeping prospect Michael Dal Colle, but I haven't followed him closely.
Age-wise, the team is balanced. Overall it's a good team with some stars and complimentary players at different stages in their development, but it's not on the same level as the top five teams this year.
Schizzarks
Keeper points above replacement: 141
Draft strength: 74
Overall: 215 (15th)
Oh, how far this franchise has fallen. But why? Is it loyalty to the guys that got him there ('there' being that 2nd place finish in 2011)? Is it ennui? It's probably ennui. Whatever it is, this team has lost its whimsy. Perhaps analytics consultant MA can bring it back.
Much like Jim Benning and Trevor Linden, GMMS has never seemed willing to fully commit to or publicly acknowledge a rebuild, but years of poor regular seasons and resultant high draft picks have sort of forced it to happen, willing participant or not.
I have this team keeping 5F+4D (that's how bad the forwards are). I realize it's difficult to trade non-superstar veteran guys like Parise (who has been a Schizzark for all 7 years), Spezza and Yandle in the offseason, but they should fetch reasonable returns during the season. None of those guys will still be good when this team is competitive again. Price should probably go too - in fact I would consider trading Price to a team that needs a goalie, like the TBDs, Rordiques or Phillipsadelphia Flyers.
On the bright side, GMMS has four prospects to choose from, and could even keep more than two at the expense of regular roster spots. Beyond Pavel Zacha though, I'm not overly excited about any of Nick Ritchie, Ryan Pulock, and Olli Juolevi.
Auston Matthews was a gift that cannot be squandered. He's a player you can build a fantasy team around. Assuming he peaks in 2018-19 and gives the Schizzarks a five-year window after that, GMMS's job is to build a supporting cast around him. That means targeting players in the draft with the most offensive potential, regardless of their expected arrival in the NHL or their degree of certainty. That means taking some risks and being prepared for another season focused on building rather than winning. The 2018 NHL draft class is supposed to be very good. Ask any Canucks fan.
Age-wise, the team is balanced. Overall it's a good team with some stars and complimentary players at different stages in their development, but it's not on the same level as the top five teams this year.
Schizzarks
Keeper points above replacement: 141
Draft strength: 74
Overall: 215 (15th)
Oh, how far this franchise has fallen. But why? Is it loyalty to the guys that got him there ('there' being that 2nd place finish in 2011)? Is it ennui? It's probably ennui. Whatever it is, this team has lost its whimsy. Perhaps analytics consultant MA can bring it back.
Much like Jim Benning and Trevor Linden, GMMS has never seemed willing to fully commit to or publicly acknowledge a rebuild, but years of poor regular seasons and resultant high draft picks have sort of forced it to happen, willing participant or not.
I have this team keeping 5F+4D (that's how bad the forwards are). I realize it's difficult to trade non-superstar veteran guys like Parise (who has been a Schizzark for all 7 years), Spezza and Yandle in the offseason, but they should fetch reasonable returns during the season. None of those guys will still be good when this team is competitive again. Price should probably go too - in fact I would consider trading Price to a team that needs a goalie, like the TBDs, Rordiques or Phillipsadelphia Flyers.
On the bright side, GMMS has four prospects to choose from, and could even keep more than two at the expense of regular roster spots. Beyond Pavel Zacha though, I'm not overly excited about any of Nick Ritchie, Ryan Pulock, and Olli Juolevi.
Auston Matthews was a gift that cannot be squandered. He's a player you can build a fantasy team around. Assuming he peaks in 2018-19 and gives the Schizzarks a five-year window after that, GMMS's job is to build a supporting cast around him. That means targeting players in the draft with the most offensive potential, regardless of their expected arrival in the NHL or their degree of certainty. That means taking some risks and being prepared for another season focused on building rather than winning. The 2018 NHL draft class is supposed to be very good. Ask any Canucks fan.
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