Team-by-Team Season Preview Pt. 3 - Messier Division

Powder Rangers

Keeper points above replacement: 176 (170 pre-trade)

Draft strength:  88 (94 pre-trade) 

Overall:  264 (264 pre-trade) (8th)

 

I had a rough draft of this analysis in the hopper before the Powder Rangers completed a trade with the Mackhawks. I started by noting that the P-Rangers had the third-worst keepers but made up for it by having the strongest draft position, including an extra first and third round pick (which they still have) and fourth round pick (which they traded). I went on to acknowledge that I've suggested a few teams blow it up and commit to the rebuild but knowing GMER's anti-rebuild (or at least anti-tear-down) philosophy, I had written that he should instead look to strengthen the forwards via pre-season trade. I wrote that the Nickrooshkins were the most likely trading partner because they have at least three forwards likely to be discarded who are young and significantly better than the P-Rangers' bottom two forwards of Adam Henrique and Patric Hornqvist.

GMER did make a trade, just not with the GM I anticipated. He acquired Artem Anisimov and Kevin Hayes from the Mackhawks. As you can see from the numbers, (and certainly GMER's numbers may differ from mine), he gained just six points above replacement from the forwards. He lost the equivalent in points above replacement in the draft. I think the old adage that the grass is always greener on the other side applies here. Henrique, Hornqvist, Anisimov and Hayes are essentially interchangeable 40-50-point plugs, any one of which you could argue stands above the others for particular reasons. I'd probably keep Henrique over Anisimov but what do I know. At least he didn't give up a lot.

Stamkos is still in his prime, and there are other good pieces here: Duchene could easily beat his projection of 57; Klingberg and Parayko are a solid, young top pair. If it all comes together, the P-Rangers could surprise. But right now this looks like a GM who knows his job is on the line and is trying to look busy.

Valeri Nickrooshkins

Keeper points above replacement: 230

Draft strength: 74

Overall: 304 (4th)

Seeking to shake the bad-luck franchise label, the 'Shkins head into 2017-18 as a bona fide contender. The roster itself ranks just behind Philllipsdelphia and the Mackhawks in 6th, but the third-strongest draft position gives GMNR a boost. After Eichel and Hedman there is not a lot of elite talent, but there is great depth. I have this team keeping 6F+3D, but that leaves three forwards unprotected that are better than a lot of teams' worst keeper forward. So there is potential for GMNR to make a trade that will add draft picks this year or next. 

 

This is also one of only two teams with two goalies (Jonathan Quick and Sergei Bobrovsky) above replacement, so if you're in the market for a goalie, contact GMNR. 

I like this team . Prospects Tyson Jost and Anthony DeAngelo are right on the cusp of contributing. If the Nickrooshkins finally get some bounces they should earn a regular season accolade in 2018 to add to their impressive 2017 Mackenzie Cup championship.

Joshfrey Krupuls

Keeper points above replacement: 203

Draft strength: 63

Overall: 266 (7th)

Since putting their GM's name on the trophy permanently the Joshfrey Krupuls have been inconsistent, finishing as high as 4th and low as 15th. They've made the playoffs three of the five years but I know GMJJWK is as dissatisfied with these results as he was with Adelina, the Spanish-Italian 27-year-old doctor/chef/model he took on a date who had never heard of Neutral Milk Hotel.

The Krupuls will likely keep 6F+3D with two of David Perron, Kyle Okposo and Conor Sheary missing the cut, though GMJJWK may see things differently. The team's projection suffers because Dobber doesn't like Martin Jones. The defence is good. The forwards are solid, led by Ryan Johansen and fading stars Ryan Getzlaf and Anze Kopitar. Kopitar may thrive again under a different coach, but the Krupuls still lack a bona fide super star or anyone projected to score 70. For that reason, it's probably more accurate to lump the 7th-ranked Krupuls in with the six teams ranked behind them than with the 6th-ranked Mackhawks. 

Prospects Robby Fabbri (is he really still a prospect?) and Shea Theodore are highly-rated and provide hope for the future, but for this season I think making the playoffs is probably the only realistic goal.

TBDs

Keeper points above replacement: 188

Draft strength: 71

Overall: 259 (T-10th)

Nobody could use a frank assessment of where his team stands more than the newest manger, GMTB. In fact, he was the inspiration to extend this exercise beyond answering the initial question - can I beat Sam?
I'm going to be completely honest with you, GMTB: this team will not win this season. However, this team is solidly in the middle of the pack, and with even a half-decent draft it could make the playoffs.

What's holding the Toilers back is their lack of even a replacement-level goaltender. Luongo backstopped the Moilers to multiple top-three finishes, but he's 38 - GMTB should show no loyalty here. The other option is Mrazek, coming off a poor season and playing for a pretty bad Red Wings team. Acquire another team's extra goaltender, such as Quick from the Nickrooshkins or Bishop from the Micahleks, and the TBDs' projection rises, but not by much.

I would consider not keeping a goaltender at all but drafting two by the middle of the draft, something the Nickrooshkins did last season with much success. That would make it 7F+3D, plus prospect Christian Dvorak.

The alternative is to blow the team up and sell your spleen for Dahlin (does that rhyme? I don't know). It's a bit drastic for a team with young stars like Forsberg and Kuznetsov just entering their prime (those guys would likely remain), but I could see GMTB wanting to put his stamp on the team. There are assets to move during the season, such as Giroux and Krejci, that could net reasonable returns of younger players, picks and prospects. On the other hand, a bounce-back season from Giroux almost certainly puts this team in the playoffs. 

There's a great opportunity here to avoid the missteps of previous expansion/take-over teams. Whatever you do GMTB, make a plan and stick to it during the draft, something many GMs in our league fail to do. 

Milan Micahleks

Keeper points above replacement: 302 (1st)

Draft strength: 61

Overall: 363 (1st)

Oh my - this is just an exquisitely constructed team. The Micahleks boast Dobber's #1 prospect, Clayton Keller (stolen at 112th overall last year) who is rosily projected to net 58 points this season. They are backstopped by #1-ranked goaltender Matt Murray (also drafted last season). Other newcomers include Zach Werenski, Sebastian Aho, and prospect Artturi Lehkonen (with a conservative 44-point projection). 

After winning the Krusell Cup in 2015, GMMC took a step back last season to completely restock the cupboards (finishing 3rd), and is now officially back on his bullshit. The average age of his 6F+3D keepers (not including prospects) is just 25.2 so this team has a ridiculously bright future.

I didn't design the model with being ranked first overall in mind, so I'm curious to see if it would hold up using projections other than Dobber's. Also curious what Stefan comes up with. Part of me definitely doesn't believe it when I give the "eye test" to my roster vs. Sam's. But that's why we play the games. See you at the draft.


Final rankings
1. Milan Micahleks
2. Patrik Stefans
3. Los Amjawors Kings
4. Valeri Nickrooshkins
5. Phillipsdelphia Flyers
6. Mackhawks
7. Joshfrey Krupuls
8. Powder Rangers
9. Fylanders
10. Rordiques
11. TBDs
12. Winter Claassics
13. Teeyotes
14. WBS Parkers
15. Schizzarks
16. Dicklas Lidstroms