I am previewing the
Quebec Rordiques, Fylanders and Hartford Thalers, three teams that finished
last season 6th, 7th and 9th, respectively. These previews use projections from
Scott Cullen, I think, except for goalies where I took win projections from NHL.com
and used Stefan’s lazy shortcut of adding 20% for bonus points.
Quebec Rordiques
Rordiques fans have to
feel good about the direction this team is headed. Last year it finished 6th,
its best performance ever, and made the playoffs for the first time.
The Rordiques made no trades last season, so I have them keeping
pretty much the same roster. Can they count on internal improvement and a great
draft to get them over the hump and into a money spot? It seems unlikely unless
everything breaks their way.
Aleksander Barkov
|
70
|
Mitch Marner
|
70
|
Ryan O'Reilly
|
64
|
Brayden Schenn
|
64
|
Eric Staal
|
61
|
Jonathan Toews
|
59
|
James van Riemsdyk
|
57
|
Matthew Tkachuk
|
55
|
Rasmus Ristolainen
|
41
|
Jonathan Quick
|
82
|
623
|
The core of the team is
young - its best players are Barkov (23) and Marner (21) (and I note the
55-point projection for Thachuk (20) seems a touch low given he scored at a
59-point pace last season, just his second). Schenn, O’Reilly and van Riemsdyk
all moved to new teams this year, which leaves a lot of uncertainty in the
projection. I also have Rordiques keeping Toews, who promises to be better, and
Staal, who has found a miracle aging cure, over William Karlsson, but keeping
the younger Golden Knight would certainly be a defensible choice. In sum, the Rordique’s window of contention is open and should
remain open for a number of years.
The forwards are very
good but these projections suggest the team lacks an elite, point-per-game
fantasy player - although Barkov was essentially that last season, and Marner’s
upside is about that. Elias Pettersson, drafted
sixth overall last year, may prove to be that elite player but is not expected
to do so this year (or is he? [insert links to those preseason dekes and through-the-legs-backhand passes that
irrefutably prove he will score 100 here]). The other prospect, Cody
Glass not expected to play in the NHL this year but is the 12th-best prospect
according to Corey Pronman - without looking, I’d wager this is the best 1-2
prospect punch in the KL.
The weakness is on the
back-end (a recurring theme in this post), where I have the Rordiques keeping
only one defender, and not a great one: Ristolainen. Justin Faulk is also a
consideration but neither of them really moves the needle. Ryan Pulock is another
young potential stud but would represent a gamble as he doesn’t have the
history of solid production. The five KL teams
that finished above the Rordiques last season each had at least two better
defencemen, and four of them boasted an elite 60-point defenceman
(Gostisbehere, Doughty, Hedman, Burns). Those are essentially forwards in a
defence slot, which is a huge advantage. Has anybody won the KL without a
60-point Dman? A question I would try to answer if I were being paid to write
this.
GMRJ’s prediction: 8th
place. He says a number of his players overperformed last season and he lacks
star power.
My prediction: 5th
place. I’m more bullish than GMJR on this team and to be honest I made this
prediction and write-up before hearing from him, and he has a point about
overperformance. I’d be more confident about my prediction if he were able to
acquire a marquee defenceman, either by moving a forward or by getting one
early in the draft. I can see the Rordiques holding steady this year before
making a big push in the next year or two when Pettersson and Glass are
contributing - acquiring a stud defenceman should be a priority this season.
The five teams above will be tough to catch, but odds are one of them will have
a bunch of things go wrong, allowing the Rordiques to move up one spot.
Fylanders
Last year I wrote this:
If I know GMFV, he will not go full-tank. He'll
draft well enough and he'll be able to wheel and deal this team into a playoff
spot. But I think that's giving short-term interests priority over long-term
goals. I know how badly GMFV wants to win the Krussel Cup, and I don't see this
roster getting him anywhere close before Backstrom starts to decline with age.
I was right about the
first half - the Fylanders scratched and clawed their way into 7th place. The
second half remains to be seen. At last year’s draft GMFV tried to balance
restocking the cupboards with remaining competitive, and to some extent he
achieved both ends - he made the playoffs and added a legit keeper in Dadonov
and a good prospect in Timo Meier. Was it enough to expect improvement?
Nicklas Backstrom
|
75
|
Joe Pavelski
|
69
|
Rickard Rakell
|
66
|
Sean Monahan
|
62
|
Dylan Larkin
|
60
|
Evgeni Dadonov
|
58
|
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
|
56
|
Nick Leddy
|
43
|
Alex Goligoski
|
36
|
Andrei Vasilevskiy
|
98
|
623
|
Although this projection
is based on keeping seven forwards, two defencemen and one goalie, the optimum
strategy may actually be to keep both Vasilevskiy and Gibson and only one
defenceman, unless Gibson could fetch a decent return on the trade market. He is
projected at just 79 points, about average, although Scott Cullen has him as
the seventh best fantasy goalie. I don't know, goalies are voodoo. Keeping both
would of course require GMFV to draft three useful defencemen in the draft,
which is easier said than done and is a good segue into this team’s biggest
flaw - again - the lack of an elite blueliner.
Last year the Milan
Micahleks got 197 points from their top four Dmen. The Nickrooshkins got 210.
The Patrik Stefans only got 148 (Doughty’s 60, Butcher’s 48, and two bags of
miscellaneous smashed assholes that combined for 44) - that sewered a team with
the greatest collection of forwards ever assembled in the KL. How can the
Fylanders expect to win with Nick Leddy leading the charge? Rasmus Dahlin is not
falling to ninth.
Up front, there are some
good pieces here that should improve, including Larkin and Monahan, but the
stars, Backstrom and Pavelski, are likely fading. Vasilevskiy is a top-three
goaltender in the KL but having most of your team’s worth tied up in its netminder
is a risky strategy, just ask the Habs. Vasilevskiy’s 117 points last year
(co-leading, with Hellebuyck) vaulted the Fylanders into the playoffs. Swap him
for either of the starters on the two teams that finished 8th and 9th (the WBS
Parkers’ Cam Talbot (69) and the Hartford Taylor’s Ben Bishop (73), and the
playoff picture looks very different. Keeping both goalies attenuates some of
that risk, so I’m very curious to see what GMFV does.
GMFV’s prediction: 8th
place. [After seeing everyone's keepers he upgraded this to 6th. Interesting.]
My prediction: 10th
place. I think this team is fine, but improvement from one of the teams below,
or anything less than stellar goaltending from Vasilevskiy, will spell trouble.
My more specific prediction is that GMFV goes “all in” at the deadline and
acquires a Patrice Bergeron-type who gets injured the following week, causing
the team to fall just outside the playoff picture.
Hartford Taylors
The Taylors finished 9th
last season, also known as "worst place" because you don’t make the
playoffs and you usually don’t get a high draft pack, unless you win the
lottery, which the Taylors did not. They only missed the playoffs by ten points
though, which is pretty good for a feeling-out year with a new GM at the helm.
Evgeny Kuznetsov
|
84
|
David Pastrnak
|
74
|
Filip Forsberg
|
64
|
Viktor Arvidsson
|
61
|
Mats Zuccarello
|
56
|
Mika Zibanejad
|
52
|
David Krejci
|
48
|
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
|
45
|
Brandon Montour or
|
31
|
Oskar Klefbom
|
|
Ben Bishop
|
74
|
589
|
Three young stars form a
respectable nucleus: Pastrnak (22), Kuznetsov (26 - really?) and Forsberg (24).
I think Forsberg's projection of 64 is too low, considering he had 64 in 67
last year. Arvidsson had 61 each of the last two years so that projection is
probably safe. Krejci is probably good for more than 48 unless he’s seriously
banged up. The scandinavian MZs from NYR are borderline keepers.
Those of you who have
been paying attention will be able to guess my main criticism of this team: it
lacks... an elite defenceman. OEL seemed like he could be that, at one time,
but he’s 27 now and his best season of 55 points was three years ago. After
OEL, these projections have Montour and Klefbom at 31 points. Both are young
and have upside so that’s a tough decision there. Maybe you keep both instead
of a goalie, and target ‘tenders early in the draft?
Bishop only registered
73 points last year. Does a new had coach in Jim Montgomery and a new system
change things? My model doesn’t think so (kidding, I have no model). Perhaps
the Taylors will talk to the Fylanders (or the Patrik Stefans?) about a goalie.
The Taylors started last
season with Claude Giroux and moved the 30-year-old amidst a career season (can
we pause for a sec - what the hell Claude Giroux! You put up 58 points in 82
games for me, continuing a three-year decline, and then I trade you and you put
up a career-best 102?!). Pastrnak was the return, signalling GMTB’s intention
to steer the team in a younger direction. I'm a huge believer in Pastrnak but
his upside is probably not quite what Giroux managed last year. It would have
been a pretty good one for one trade; I’m not sure why the Taylors had to throw
in a 6th round pick and an add/drop, but that’s nitpicking.
GMTB acquitted himself
well in his first draft. His first three picks were Arvidsson, Josh Ho-Sang
(I’m not super high on him but he’s probably worth retaining as a prospect),
and Montour. I have him keeping all, with Montour, as mentioned above, on the bubble.
Can he continue to build? He'll need to be aggressive at the draft and keep an
eye out for trade targets throughout the season, something he definitely has
time for with only one child and one job at the moment.
GMTB’s prediction:
[could not be reached for comment]
My prediction: 8th
place. This team has some really nice pieces and I can see a lot of them
exceeding their projections here, which could mask its greatest weakness, the
goaltending position. If that need is addressed in the pre-season, I’ll feel a
lot safer calling the Taylors a playoff team.
