TOP SIX FORWARDS
They say you can usually beat pundits' projections by simply using the players' raw points scored last year. I took the points per game for each player from last year and multiplied it by 82 as a starting point.
As you can see these are two decent forward groups, both averaging about 64 points. Arguably the two best fantasy assets belong to the Claassics. Scheifele is young (wait, he's 25?! Where does the time go?) and has been producing at or above a point per game the last two years. At 32, Wheeler is coming off a career best 91 points, thanks in no small part to a league-leading (and probably unsustainable) 34 powerplay assists. Safe to assume he regresses next season. The rest of the Claassics are somewhat underwhelming and would not be keepers on the better teams in this league. Many had high hopes for Wennberg but it seems Dubois has taken over the top line centre duties in Columbus.
Dubois happens to be on the Teeyotes and although his projection above is nothing to write home about, a closer look at last season reveals that he had 26 points in 32 games after February 1st. Whether that reflects increased minutes or increased confidence for the third overall pick, who just turned 20 this summer, he should have no trouble improving on last year's totals Mark Stone is not going to get 88 on a dreadful Senators team, especially if Karlsson is traded, but others such as William Nylander and perhaps Sebastian Aho have more to give. GMTA had this to say:
I tried to put a fair amount of thought into my team selection and the average age of the players I saw as the nucleus of each team was very much a factor in my selection, as I saw one roster as being potentially a bit stronger in terms of proven point-getters [Winter Claassics] with the other being stronger in terms of younger players with room to grow [Teeyotes].Age has to be taken into account and the Winter Claassics' top six are 26.8 years old on average, while the Teeyotes' top six are just 24. That difference is enough to boost the Teeyotes' appeal factor despite the lack of an elite player.
Edge: Draw
TOP THREE DEFENCE
This one is also close. Arguably Manson and Green would not be kept by either team and you'd go with seven forwards but neither team had a very good seventh forward. I don't see how Subban and Ellis can each get 60 points in Nashville, especially while my Roman Josi also gets 60. It's a risky proposition having two defencemen from the same team as there is only so much powerplay time to go around.
For the Teeyotes, Byfugien has played above a 50-point place for a remarkable eight consecutive seasons. At 33 though, you wonder if he'll soon be losing a step and losing powerplay time to one of the Jets younger defenders. Dumba has put up exactly 12 powerplay points in each of the last three years, but last year really increased his even-strength production when he broke out with 50. His numbers look sustainable so there's no reason to doubt that he'll repeat.
Subban is the best defenceman available but Dumba looks legit and I don't like keeping two defencemen from the same team.
Edge: Draw
GOALTENDING
The Winter Classics have Connor Hellebuyck, 25. The Teeyotes have Frederik Andersen, 28. You couldn't make a wrong choice here as Dobber has Hellebuyck rated as the best fantasy goaltender and Andersen close behind in second. Both are the undisputed starters on very good teams. Andersen has a longer track record of being consistently good, with a save percentage between .914 and .923 over five seasons. I think Hellebuyck got a little lucky last season with six shutouts but I still have to give him the edge.
Edge: Winter Classics, barely.
PICKS AND PROSPECTS
In terms of prospects, the Winter Claassics have Keifer Bellows, while the Teeyotes have Tyson Jost (whom they basically traded for Tavares straight up, before Tavares became a Leaf, causing GMAT to rage-quit the league). While Jost is a far cry from Tavares, he is clearly the better prospect over Bellows.
For the 2018 draft, the Winter Claassics had all their picks, while the Teeyotes had all their picks plus an extra 2nd rounder and an extra 7th rounder.
Edge: Teeyotes
CONCLUSION
It's very close, and closer than I thought at first glance. The two best players today are Scheifele and Wheeler, ranked by Dobber at 11th and 8th respectively among all players. Subban is the best defenceman. But it's probably fair to say that they key players on the Winter Claassics all had their best seasons last year and the team missed the playoffs. The Teeyotes, on the other hand, have more pieces with potential for growth, including Nylander, Aho and Dubois, and a longer competitive window. GMTA provided further insight:
I figure the way to compile a team that can contend for the top in this league is to establish a core of 10 that you can confidently build around for a period of 3-4 years and the only way to do that when you don’t already have a McDavid, a Matthews or a Crosby is to take swings on a bunch of young guys in hopes that they hit their ceilings while you also take advantage of higher lottery positions to build up through the draft. I saw players like Aho, Nylander, Dubios, Burakosvky and Jost as higher ceiling players with a longer time horizon than what was available on [the Winter Claassics].Already GMTA is sounding smarter than half of the league.
Having never participated in a league like this before, I am in information gathering mode at this stage and anticipate a 2-3 year rebuild. I didn’t see either roster as one that would be able to compete for the top, my intended direction is to prioritize establishing a core group of 10 players under 25 that can grow and be supplemented around the edges when the time is right to contend.In a few weeks GMTA will be selecting 6th overall - a pick that will be heavily scrutinized and will undoubtedly shape the future of the ToNY Islandersons. Previous 6th overall picks include Evgeni Malkin, John Klingberg, Dubois, Elias Petersson, and... Chris Stewart - coincidentally picked by the former GM of the Teeyotes. Big shoes to fill, GMTA.
Excellent work all around!!
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