Thursday, January 2, 2014

The Fy Gambit and How We Deal With Injuries


In the NHL and fantasy hockey alike, injuries to big stars are part of the game. How our rules permit GMs to mitigate the effect of injuries has implications for competition, player movement, and general fun level. 

Many GMs are uncomfortable with what has become known as the "Fy Gambit" (named after fictional X-men character Gambit, whose "mutant power" was dealing cards). This tricky manoeuvre involves dropping an injured star player and then adding him back to the non-scoring roster. It requires GMs to have two free agent swaps at their disposal. As GMs only have two free agent swaps per year, retaining the ability to perform the FY Gambit means passing on tempting free agents early in the season. It's a bit of strategy that I like. However, because we have treated free agent swaps as a tradable commodity, GMs know they can obtain additional swaps when needed, and the price is relatively low because there are typically more sellers than buyers. Having seen this for two years now, some GMs are clamouring to ban the trading of free agent swaps. 

Other GMs have called for an outright ban of the Fy Gambit, which is an easy enough amendment to the rules, although I'm not sure it's in the best interests of the League. This led to me to consider the questions of to what extent, and with which tools, we want to enable GMs to address injuries. 

I think there are at least two schools of thought on this. One camp, let's call them the non-interventionists, believe injuries are part of the game. Mitigation should largely occur before the season begins: you take injury history into consideration in retaining and drafting players; you covet ironman streaks; you draft a decent backup goalie; you avoid Peter Mueller. And then you take your chances in the injury lottery, which otherwise treats all GMs the same.

Injuries, according to the non-interventionists, should also create opportunities. If one team's roster is significantly better than others' from the outset (ahem, GP), a critical injury or two becomes the only hope of the teams below. If bitten by the injury bug, the GM on top has to either ride out the injury, creating opportunity for lesser teams to move up in the standings, or trade the player, creating opportunity for lesser teams to acquire big names. (Note this point is disputed by at least one GM, who says that GMs will not trade an injured superstar. Others say it at least opens the trade door a crack, and we have seen trades of some stars and one superstar (Malkin) driven by injury). 

The underlying assumption is that player movement is a good thing, which I think most GMs would agree with, to a point - trades are interesting, and movement has the potential to make the league more competitive. On the other hand, it is open to question whether trades motivated by injury are of the same "value" as more traditional trades - i.e., trades driven by pure speculation, by trying to buy low or sell high, by trying to improve a weakness in one area by dealing strength in another, or by just exploiting another GM's homerism or irrational love for Adam Henrique. 

The other camp, let's call them the interventionists for symmetry's sake, believe that fantasy hockey is too important to be decided by random chance. Injuries are unpredictable. In our league, with the slot system, GMs are hamstrung when a star player goes down, because often the depth players are too far back to make the scoring roster. When a player in a high slot is injured, it's like playing short-handed. This is not what happens in NHL hockey, where depth players fill in. 

From this camp has emerged an idea that embraces intra-roster movement (let's call it the intra-roster swap). It would entitle each team, once per season, to swap any two roster players of the same position. Neither of the players would actually have to be injured, so on a hunch you could swap out a cold player on your scoring roster for a hot one on your bench. Outside of this one move per year, the Fy Gambit would be prohibidado, although each GM would still have two free agent pickups, to be used for actual free agents. The intra-roster swap would be untradable; free agent pickups would still be tradable. This idea intrigues me because it adds a layer of strategy: how to time your intra-roster swap for maximum value; what level of risk is acceptable, etc. It also makes more interesting the keeping/drafting of injured players that will be returning part-way through the season. 

I haven't heard from everyone in the league and there are bound to be some things I haven't considered. But in general I'm curious as to which camp people fall in, or whether there are other camps, considerations or ideas. 

To summarize, I see at least four options for the league to consider:
a) leave the rules as they are (Fy Gambit unlimited);
b) Prohibit trading of free agent swaps (Fy Gambit once per team per year);
c) Prohibit Fy Gambit, allow one intra-roster swap;
d) Prohibit Fy Gambit entirely; no intra-roster swap.

8 comments:

  1. I think most of you know my thoughts on this, but I'm a through and through interventionist.

    Let's not forget that the one superstar trade involved another superstar going the other way - Nicklas Lidstrom. Of course, Lidstrom was retiring but lets not pretend like I got Malkin for peanuts. And let's also not forget (with the benefit of hindsight) that Malkin has missed huge swaths of every season.

    The fact of the matter is that, almost universally, GMs are going to retain their injured franchise players. We aren't increasing player movement by insisting on the status quo, we're just making the league more frustrating. Its a bitter pill to swallow to be hit by injury and watch everyone else around you catch up or pass you - just ask Eric this year.

    I love the intra-roster swap, and in fact I would advocate for a system that allows you to swap those same players back into their original places.

    I would also suggest that the intra-roster swap may actually have the effect of increasing player movement - if I can afford to take an injured player and stash him in my non-scoring roster, and later swap him into my SR, I'm more likely to make some offers. IE: earlier this year maybe I trade Malkin and a decent player to Eric for his injured Stamkos and a decent player. Put Stamkos safely away on my non-scoring roster, then when he returns I can swap him into a SR slot, reducing the number of points bled away. (Not that Eric would necessarily take that trade, but the point stands - I can actually AFFORD to give up a big name in that case without tanking the season)

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  2. I am in favour of encouraging player movement and the added variable of dealing with injury head-on. One option not listed above might be to require a 24-hour period after a GM drops a player before which they can re-add the player, thus allowing that player to enter the open market and effectively eliminating the Fy Gambit.

    The Stamkos injury could have been exciting for every GM including Eric, but instead it was uneventful and downright boring given that Eric then swapped for Carl Hagelin.

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  3. Also I disagree with Greg's statement that GMs are going to retain injured franchise players regardless--this was demonstrably not the case with Malkin, and citing the plight of Eric doesn't really work since he did in fact use a Fy Gambit.

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  4. Yes, Sam, I didn't list that option because I see it as an example of a specific way to prohibit (without actually making illegal) the Fy Gambit. It may be the right way, or there may be other ways, but I think we need to focus on the ends first here.

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  5. C (as long as that means add/drop swaps can still be traded - because there is value in the swaps irrespective of the Fy Gambit and people may still want to trade low future draft picks for the ability to swap in the here and now)

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  6. If we are going to keep the system relatively similar, i'd be in favour of getting rid of the ability to trade add drops all together and no intra roster swap (B). Then no trading of add drops but 1 intra roster swap (not really an option above).

    I totally understand what Greg is suggesting and that it may actually increase player movement. I do think if we keep expanding movement of injured players within our own rosters somehow, that we are getting closer and closer to a set up where you pick you 14 players for 14 slots on your SR out of the 22 players you have drafted. I realize that is significantly farther but it is something to keep in mind. I don't even mind that so much if that's what people wanted to do.

    I quite like our current system, and am supportive of restrictive add drop trading but changing the prospect rules significantly.

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